Wednesday, December 22, 2010

So, Who's Next?

                           
 




We’ve been howling at the moon for some time about the performance of the Leader of the Pack Mike McCarthy. It is fair to say that we are onboard the “Replace the Coach” train at this point and we can cite recent history for our reasoning. And we acknowledge our readers who are savvy and demand more than merely regurgitating the things that went wrong.
This will be an objective exercise in detailing why the “Replace the Coach” train is in the station with stats, facts, some haughty, self righteous opinion and the the very essence of the game – the numbers that do not lie. And we will go one step further and start the search right here. The readers demand it, the fans demand it, and the Packers need it.
Before getting current, let’s take a look at the body of work. Two playoff appearances, one to the NFC Championship game, and one an epic disaster in the desert against Arizona. If the measuring stick of a team is championships then this falls far short of the mark. In 4+ years his record sits at 46 – 32, a .590 winning percentage which can be a tad misleading. Under MM’s watch the Packers are either great or lousy. Of those 46 wins 24 came in ’07 and ’09. His first year was 8 -8, then after Favre’s last stand came the 6 -10 season with Aaron Rodgers taking over. To call the results inconsistent is accurate. To say it was because of QB changes is to cop out.
MM’s record in close games – games decided by 7 points or less – is a less than stellar 5 – 15. Numbers do not lie and this cannot be explained away. Keeping it close is a McCarthy tradition, and only a very powerful rocket launcher attached to Brett Favre’s body makes this record as good as it is. One very disturbing trend is to see that if the Packers aren’t blowing out a team their collective success rate goes way down. Look at this season in a capsule:
Philly close game W (good thing Vick wasnt playing yet)
Buff - blowout W
Chi - L (thanks to the vanilla flavored MM 2nd half offense)
Det -  A W that SHOULD have been a blowout but ended up much closer than the score indicates
Wash - See: Chi above ( thanks to the vanilla flavored MM 2nd half offense)
Miami - See: Wash above
Minny - A close game W
NYJ - a GOOD W and more blowout (even at 9 - 0) as the Jets offense did not even show up
Dallas - Blowout W
Minny II - Blowout W
Atl - See: Chi/Wash/Miami above (thanks to the vanilla flavored MM 2nd half offense)
SF - Blowout W
Det - the disgrace of the early century L
NE - See: Chi/ Wash/Miami/Atl/Det above
If Green Bay doesn’t get up big, early, often and stay there the chance of winning goes down precipitously.
Injuries have played a huge part in GB’s fortunes or lack thereof this year. Let’s take into account that both the Colts and the Patriots have been hit with injuries as well, with the Colts losing almost their entire receiving corps and having possibly a worse running attack than the Packers. The Pats just keep rolling along while the Colts mirror the Packers with their record and the positioning for a playoff push.
GM Ted Thomson faces some tough
decisions at the end of the year
Peyton Manning is the great equalizer and trying to project what the Pack’s fortunes would be without Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson AND Jermichael Finley sends a cold shudder down the back.
Injuries are the inevitable negative of a violent collision sport. GM Ted Thompson has done a fairly masterful job of stocking the shelves with his UDFA’s and it’s hard to argue with the results posted by the likes of the Zombo’s, Shields’’, Walden’s and Nance’s he has acquired. How they have been deployed is not on TT, that falls to MM.
No need to beat the dead horse on the special teams unit. But the facts are this may be one of the worst special teams in the NFL right now. Mason Crosby, while big legged, cannot seem to hit for better than 80%, and this at a time when the standard for NFL kickers is at 88% to be considered average. Crosby this season is a 3 out of 4 kicker and has improved from last season, but he is not out from under the microscope. The jury is still out on improving rookie P Tim Masthay and punting is not as bad as it has been since the Derrick Frost debacle. The wart on the nose is the incredibly horrible coverage of this unit. MM must shoulder this area and not pass it off onto a handpicked coach Shawn Slocum. Time to gut and revamp this entire area.
Ryan Grant, pre-injury
In close games for whatever reason MM gets a deer in the headlights look and seems to be in way over his head. Pressure? Can he handle it? The numbers say otherwise. Quick – name the last Packers come from behind last minute win. The very sound of it sounds like putting motor oil on your corn flakes.
When Ryan Grant went down so did any semblance of a running game. At what point is it the players or the coaching? Brandon Jackson was having a monster game against the Skins in DC (151 yds on the ground w a 71 yard jaunt) until MM went into his four corners offense allowing the Skins to gain momentum and KO the Pack in OT. The same script for the Bears opener when GB had them by the throat, played ultraconservative with a lead, and allowed Chicago to jump start its NFCN winning season.
In 4 seasons MM has posted but 2 playoff teams, and is in dire danger of a missing this year’s dance unless the Pack can win out. Yes, there still is a shot and the recipe is fairly simple. Beat the Giants. Beat the Bears. The Giants game IS for all intents and purposes a playoff game.
NY Giants Head man Tom Coughlin
Lose it and go home. Football doesn’t get much simpler. After being embarrassed by their own epic meltdown against Michael Vick’s Eagles the Giants a now have their backs up against the same wall Green Bay has theirs.
In a Mike McCarthy vs. Tom Coughlin showdown, who is the favorite? And will it be enough to keep MM on for one more year?
To keep MM on is to say this is the guy. This is the man. This is the one who can lead this team to a Super Bowl and win it.
When last searching for a Head Coach MM was in a dogfight with Sean Payton who openly wanted to be in Green Bay. How different would Green Bay’s fortunes be if Payton was at the helm? It begs the question as to what was said to sway the brass to McCarthy, whose underachieving record as a SF OC saw him lobby for Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers. That blip on the resume should have been enough to raise eyebrows, and seeing the success Payton has had in New Orleans makes the Packers brass green with envy.
We have reservations.
And we do not believe that Mike McCarthy is the man to climb the next rung on the ladder.
To that end we offer the following possibilities.
Keeping MM regardless is a flat out mistake. He has had ample time and not consistently delivered when it matters. His teams are good – sometimes – and when he and he alone is needed to step up he vanishes into thin air. The only hope MM has to retain his position is for GB to run the table and win the next 6 games in a row.
Packers DC
Dom Capers
Failing that we see the most logical conclusion at year’s end. By logical let’s promote from within as the Packers have some very viable candidates already in the house.
Remove MM from the Head coaches spot. Our considered pick is right under our noses. Move Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers in. This move makes the most sense and is most likely on a lot of fronts.
1)     Capers is a former NFL Head Coach. He knows the ropes.
2)     Capers is already under contract. He is right here and ready to go.
3)     Capers has proven his mettle and worth to this team.
4)     The Packers defense has improved quantum leaps under Capers’ command.
5)     The players respect and play hard for Capers.
6)     Failing to move Capers up opens up another team to grab him (Dallas/ Minnesota/ Denver/ San Francisco/ Carolina). The Packers cannot afford to lose him.
7)     Capers needs zero time to acclimate himself to Green Bay, the players, or the team. It would be one of the smoothest transitions imaginable.
8)     Capers is a known entity. There is no guessing with him at this point. The front office and players all know what they are getting. This eliminates the guesswork.
Keeping Capers and promoting from within is less likely to upset the apple cart. OC Joe Philbin is a far less likely choice. The second promote from within scenario moves up and coming QB coach Tom Clements into the OC’s seat. There has been plenty of cause to make these moves as the offense, once the gold standard of this team has shown more rust than shine under the MM/ Philbin show. Line coach James Campen may also feel the heat. The best thing the next coach can do is to scrap this Zone Blocking Scheme and truly evaluate the talent level of this offensive line. Maybe a new man can convince TT to delve into Free Agency to pick up what the Packer truly need – an earth mover at LG, and larger C than Scott Wells, and some relief for Chad Clifton. One intriguing but never gonna happen as long as we draw a breath scenario has a former Packer legend and about to retire future Hall of Fame player out there who is having a small problem in stepping away from the game. Would he be a good coach?

Naaaahhhhhhh… not as long as TT draws a breath, But the thought is interesting.

With the void now at DC, move Asst Head Coach Winston Moss into that slot. The ever excitable Kevin Greene, while still learning, is another long shot for DC as is line coach Mike Trgovach. The next move is to bring back an old favorite Chuck Cecil to run the Special Teams. Either that or throw a bucket of money at the Jets Mike Westhoff as he is one of the very best in the business.
Moving MM out and Dom Capers in is the path of least resistance and one that makes the most sense. It provides continuity and addresses the fact that this team is close with it’s personnel. Bringing someone else in from the outside may do more residual damage to the Defense if Capers is lost in the equation. The coaches on the Defensive side of the ball have done well, including DB Coach Darren Perry. The talent is there on the field and in the coaching ranks.
'57 NY Giants Coaching
Staff Tom Landry (L), Jim Lee
Howell (C), and God Almighty (R)

This is a unique scenario where the assistants that surround the head coach are in fact probably much better suited for his spot than he himself is. It is reminiscent of the ’57 New York Giants who had a figurehead of a Head Coach in Jim Lee Howell, but the de facto coaches of that team were (in the pre-coordinator days of pro football) Defensive Head Coach Tom Landry and Offensive Coach Vince Lombardi.
We’re not ready to proclaim one of the Packers current make up of coaches the next Vince. Or even Landry.
Bringing in a Bill Cowher or Jon Gruden (who was a onetime QB coach in GB) are clear second choices to promoting from within. If onetime Packer Asst coach Andy Reid should somehow gets the axe he would be a welcome sight back on Lambeau.
If any of the up and comers deserve a shot look at Philly’s Bruce Arians (OC) who has earned consideration. OC Mike Mularkey in Atlanta failed in his first shot but is another popular choice.
But we will say that Dom Capers is the right man. He has the background, and the resume for the job. We won’t insult him with names of other choices. This is a winning ticket already.


1 comment:

  1. Woo-Hoo, good stuff here. Less ranting, more solutions.
    OK, MM must face the facts. As you point out,they are not great. The "BUCK" stops with the head coach. (Maybe that's why he gets the "DEER" in the headlight look). If it takes MM to leave for the Pack to keep Capers, then that's a viable choice. Even though MM was smart enough to want him, get him, & hire him. Does that count as a feather in his hat ?? Rather see Capers elevated to Assistant Head Coach/Defense, let MM do what he does best, organize.. Then take play-calling away & give to Philbin or maybe better yet, Clements. If the Packers only have half the injuries next year, we Packer fans have a right to expect a Super Bowl. If MM fails, given the above changes,well---no more chances !!

    Cowher-Nope! Give the credit in Pittsburgh to the defense--can you say "LeBeau" & a 3-4. (sound familiar?)Very few guys, if any, quit & come back, successful.Hmmm, maybe none.

    Gruden-HAH ! He won a Super Bowl his first year in the other bay only because he inherited a great defense from Dungy,(now there is a suggestion)then went 7-9, & 5-11 the next two years & eventually got FIRED.

    On to something far more important right now, the game this week.
    Very simple--
    1.Stop the run.
    2.Force the other Manning to pass.
    3.Get turnovers(see # 2)
    4.No special team screw-ups

    One more thing--
    Merry Christmas

    ReplyDelete