IT ALL COMES DOWN TO THIS

Another Year, Another Epic Finale as Pack Hosts Lions

For the second straight year the Green Bay Packers will close out the regular season with an intra-divisional matchup for all the marbles in the NFC North. Last year it was the Chicago Bears who went down in disastrous fashion on a 4^th and 8 with 48 seconds left when Aaron Rodgers hit Randall Cobb on a bomb from 48 yards out. The strike was devastating to Chicago and Marc Trestman’s career as the Bears have yet to recover from blowing that game. The Bears were expected to be there again but in their place the Detroit Lions have stepped up to the plate this year for the winner-take-all Sunday afternoon.

The poohbahs of the NFL have rightfully decided to move the game from 1pm to 4:25 to attract an undoubtedly larger audience. The Lions most significant change from years past has been their ability to win the close games this year, the types of games they routinely would manage to blow. The biggest reason for the sudden change in fortune is the long overdue change at the top. The fiery, emotional Jim Schwartz tolerated thuggish behavior on the field and at times behaved like a petulant schoolboy when things didn’t go his way. Remember the famous back slap confrontation with the equally fiery and equally ready to be gassed Jim Harbaugh of San Francisco? Schwartz did little to keep his team in check and has been replaced by the more stable and steady Jim Caldwell who was unceremoniously dumped in Indy.

Caldwell’s influence has been immediate and has paid dividends right off the bat. The Lions are a far more disciplined team although C Dominic Raiola’s actions last week were a reminder of how far the Lions have come. Raiola stomped on the ankle of the Bears Ego Ferguson and it was reminiscent of Ndamukong Suh’s famous stomp on Evan Dietrich-Smiths arm a few Thanksgivings ago. The Lions will be without his service as the NFL has sat the center down for a game – this game against the Packers whose defense is suddenly beginning to take shape.

The Lions strength has been up the middle on defense. Led by Suh and fellow DE Ziggy Ansah the Lions have become more ferocious and have some bite. Nick Fairley has played fairly well when he wasn’t hitting the front of the all you can eat buffet line. But Fairley won’t dress for the game and although he is still trying to battle through a knee injury he hasn’t yet been placed on the season ending IR list. Detroit is hedging its bet he can be ready for the playoffs. DeAndre Levy is the focal point of the LB’s and is the leader on defense. Levy led all linebackers with six interceptions last year and didn’t get in. Levy is third in the NFL in tackles this year and is the only player with more than 100 solo tackles (109). His All Star snub hasn’t gone unnoticed in the Motor City as Levy was conspicuously left off the list along with WR Golden Tate who had an excellent year. But where the Lions have improved most unexpectedly is in the defensive backfield. Rashean Mathis and Darius Slay have been more than just some warm bodies. Throw hard hitting FS Glover Quin into the mix and the Lions have speed and smarts and thump in their repertoire. Mathis and Slay will have to contend with the deadly duo of Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb who gave the Pack their first ever pair of 1,000 + yard/ 10+ TD receivers in their glorious history.

The Lions counter with Megatron Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate who emerged as a more than competent 2^nd banana to the Lions top dog. Johnson missed time earlier this year with a concussion and other ailments but seems poised to pressure the Pack’s DB’s. In his absence the former Seahawk and star of the epic fail Mary against Green Bay stepped up and became a force in his own right. When Megatron went out Tate filled the gap almost seamlessly. With 96 catches and 1,286 yards the only real knock is his TD total of a mere 4. Johnson has had 6 while missing 3 games entirely.

The offense is carried by side slinging QB Matthew Stafford who has had a fine year. Stafford has thrown for over 4,000 yards and has added 19 TD’s against 12 INT’s. RB Joique Bell chipped in with an 800 yard season with 7 TD’s while Reggie Bush has fallen dramatically in the Motor City. Bell has an Achilles issue that could hamper his running. If Bell is unable to post yardage inside and try to gash the Packers suspect run defense it could be problematic for Stafford and the rest of the offense. Stafford still has a terrible habit of flattening out his delivery by dropping his shoulder and slinging the ball almost side armed at times, especially when he is being harassed in the pocket. The loss of Raiola could spell trouble for Stafford considering just how far the Pack’s defense has come in its’ own right. Rookie C Travis Swanson gets his first action of his career in what is only the Lions biggest game of the year. The Packers 7 sacks last week against Tampa Bay won’t escape his attention.

The Lions have grown considerably and have found ways to win the close ones. It’s good for them that they did because 8 of their games thus far have been decided by 8 points or less and the first meeting with Green Bay was a score of 19 – 7.

In round 1 the Packers offense hardly looked like the Packers offense. Even Cobb acknowledged as much by saying recently it took him time this year to get going. But when Cobb finally got untracked he did nothing to hurt his cause for a long term deal he will be seeking in the off season as his contract is up after this year. Cobb’s focus remains on playing and is leaving the money talks until the season ends. The likelihood of Ted Thompson not looking up one of the NFL’s most dynamic players is the same as a beach party being held after the game in Green bay Sunday night. Cobb will be the next beneficiary of the Pack’s history of rewarding its own and expect to see him in Green Bay for a nice extended run.

Aaron Rodgers was held in check in the first outing and coming off a calf injury and battling the flu he looked rightfully off his game in Tampa Bay last week. The loss against Buffalo did little to impact the outcome of today’s game. With the Lions holding then tie breaker advantage even if Green Bay had won if the Lions come out on top in the finale they will claim the NFC North in a same record scenario. Rodgers will be ready for this one and the Pack will need him to play more like his normal best-in-the-league self. RB Eddie Lacy will be counted on to carry a big load Sunday. Last time around the Lions rushed 4 and dropped everyone else into coverage and sealed off the Packs passing attack. Lacy was not near as dominant then as he has been of late. If the Lions try to rush 4 look for the Packers to feed Lacy and test the Lions ability to containing the Pack’s raging bull in a china shop. If Lacy can force the Lions safeties into coming up to help it could tilt the field in Green Bay’s favor and the Lions know it.

"First and foremost, you have to stop the run," defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh said. "Eddie Lacy is a dominant force and I think when he's rolling, he's got their offense moving forward on the ground, that's where you struggle. Then you have a two-headed sword you have to deal with and then go from there." The other head is Rodgers and he and Nelson and Cobb have formed a deadly triumvirate. "Most of Jordy (Nelson) making plays down the field, a lot of times, is off their scramble drill," cornerback Darius Slay said. "Rodgers makes good plays on his feet and Jordy gets behind the defense. They are really good at that. Some of them are also Jordy just being Jordy. They're real consistent making plays like that so we're preparing for it."

The impact and ramifications of this game are huge. A win gives the Pack nothing less than the #2 seed and ensuring a first round bye and some home cooking along the road to the Super Bowl. A loss puts them in a wild card position mostly likely against Dallas. For Green Bay to be successful the defense has to step up and the offense has to hit in all phases. The Lions are more respectful and wary of the Packers this time around. Having been on the business end of a few smackdowns over the years the Lions have matured and are more ready to face the challenge of trying to knock off the reigning kings of the hill.

This one will be decided in the trenches and will be a defensive battle. The Packers incredibly solid, incredibly improved and yet incredibly overlooked offensive line will get another big test. The pack offensive line has been together for the vast majority of the year and has grown into one of the league’s best and most underrated units. Josh Sitton, T.J. Lang, Bryan Bulaga, David Bahktiari and rookie Corey Linsley have been stellar in protecting Rodgers and opening up holes for Lacy. On the flip side this will be the biggest test for the Lions front 4, a mano a mano epic battle brewing.

The point total will be down and instead of a shootout it should be more of a slugfest. Look for Stafford to toss a late pick while Lacy runs wild. If Lacy gets going the skies will open up for Rodgers. The Packers weapons on offense will be too much for a Lions team that was routed by Tom Brady and the Patriots. No rout will be on but in this good old fashioned NFC North slugfest the Packers will get an extra week off to prepare for round 2 of the playoffs.

 

 

 

 

 

   GREEN BAY 27  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Detroit  23