A WING AND A PRAYER

Atlanta Comes to Lambeau with High Hopes Monday Night

Fresh off a dominating performance in their 26 – 21 win over New England the newest media darling Green Bay Packers will host the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night. In the Game of the Century the Pack was hitting on all cylinders and driving Tom Brady nuts in the process. The Dirty Birds are coming in on a roll (sort of) and currently lead the NFC South (whoopee!). There is talk of a letdown, of a trap game, of Atlanta suddenly getting hot at the right time, all of which could upset Green Bay’s apple cart. This is a big one! A matchup of divisional leaders!

Poppycock.

There is but one stat line there bears mentioning and the discussion will be quickly terminated. Atlanta currently has then 32^nd ranked pass defense in the NFL. That’s 32^nd in a 32 team league. Last. Dead last. It don’t get no worser than that last. And now they face Aaron Rodgers and the NFL’s leading scoring machine. This is a team that dropped 100+ points in an 8 day span, a team that destroyed the NFC East leading Philadelphia Eagles and their then 8 - 2 record and is right now the hottest property in pro football.

Here is the sum total of the evaluation of the upcoming game. Aaron Rodgers, a QB whose TD and yardage totals have been impacted by playing less than 60 minutes in more than his fair share of games, a QB who has WR’s the likes of Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams and a running back in Eddie Lacy who also can catch the ball is on one side. On the other is a team that ranks dead last against the pass. Okay, sports fans, which team would you favor even without Green and Gold goggles?

Yeah, yeah, yeah, we already know the “any given Sunday” and the David and Goliath references and they are cute, we also know ESPN’s Skip Useless gives the Packers zero respect so ultimately no shot but come on, man. Really? The good teams play them one at a time. The good teams are having fun while laying the wood upside their opponent’s heads. Philly LB Brandon Graham took to the press to whimper and whine that Aaron Rodgers was laughing at the Eagles. Laughing!!! With all due respect what the hell did he expect? Comfort? Condolences? Sympathy? Puh-LEEZ! If Mr. Graham is soooo upset at being laughed at we have a suggestion – PLAY BETTER! Don’t want to be laughed at? Then play like a man and beat the guy doing the laughing.

Yes, Atlanta is in a literal fight for their playoff lives in a woefully inept weak division. So bad is the South this year that even the Tampa Bay Stinkeroos with their exemplary record of 2 – 10 are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. Yes Atlanta has won more than 1 in a row for the first time this year. Yeah, someone will steal a playoff slot away from a more deserving team (hello, San Francisco? Please enjoy the early vacation) and most likely the Falcons are the best of the lot here. But it is a dubious distinction much like being the finest hockey player in Ecuador.

We are acknowledging some disrespect here. It could be viewed with a very jaundiced eye considering the Packers have been the cellar dwellers most of the season against the run. It may seem a bit homer-istic to sneer at Atlanta’s pass D while owning a lousy track record against almost any RB in the league. There are several enormous differences.

For all of Bayless’s overblown blathering about the state of the Packers run D the inescapable fact is a record of 9 – 3. As it sits right now Green Bay, Philadelphia, Arizona, New England and Denver all have the same record. In spite of the stats that say otherwise Green Bay is among the elite even with such an embarrassing stat. Atlanta, on the other hand, has managed to cobble together a 5 – 7 mark. In a pass-dominated league as the NFL is today the 32^nd rank against the pass is far more of a millstone around the neck than last against the run. Rodgers has managed to render the run D irrelevant week after week but there are some breaking developments.

Since Dom Capers moved Clay Matthews to the Inside Linebackers slot the Packers defense has had quantum leaps of improvement. Since the move the Pack’s run D has climbed top 28^th – still unimpressive but it is an upward tick. And while surrendering 132.5 yards on the ground/ game the Pack’s pass D is quite another story. The pass D is ranked 11^th and the true untold strength is Green Bay leads the NFL in fewest red zone TD’s allowed in the NFL.  The Pack is also tied for 8th in INT’s with 12 and is Top 5 in +/- in turnover differential. Rodgers has thrown 3 picks all year. He simply does not turn the ball over and now he is up against the team that is last in defending what Rodgers does best.

The Falcons have Steven Jackson and although aging he is still a load to bring down. Jackson has posted 602 rushing yards and there is a serious drop off behind him. Neither Davante Freeman nor Jacquizz Rogers has lived up to expectation so when Jackson tires it falls upon QB Matt Ryan to carry the Birds. Atlanta still has a potent pair of wideouts in Julio Jones and Roddy White each of whom has 5 TD’s for the year. Jones is among the best in the NFL but has had injury issues throughout his career. White’s star is beginning to wane as Jones has become Ryan’s go-to guy.

Ryan is an enigma. At times he looks unstoppable and then he makes a poor decision or poor throw that move his name into the “good but not great” back bin of QB’s in the NFL. His 10 picks and 24 sacks are result of his having the lateral movement of the Statue of Liberty and scrambling or extending plays has never been his string suit. Most times behind a beat up offensive line Ryan has been forced to run for his life. To date Ryan has never won under pressure or when his team needs him to step up. Ryan is less likely to pull off a 3 seconds left last minute miracle as Rodgers did against Miami than most anyone else.

And now he has to square off against the NFL’s MVP frontrunner in Aaron Rodgers. Who has Nelson, Cobb, Adams and Lacy. In Lambeau. On an expected cold Monday night. Maybe Skip Bayless can offer up a little pre game pep talk and convince the Falcons as he seems to have convinced himself that the Packers are of little consequence. At least Howard Cosell was original; Bayless has become just the loudest and most irritating voice in a cacophony of media noise.

The Packers are beginning to peak. The offense is executing at a high rate and yet Mike McCarthy and Rodgers know they can still play better. Davante Adams dropped a sure TD against the Patriots and owned up to it. The Packers were less than brilliant in their red zone attempts last week but K Mason Crosby was there to knock 4 FG’s thru. Crosby did miss one in the game that drew very little scrutiny. Since his horrendously awful season of shanks just a few short years ago Crosby has become so reliable that missing now is not front page news. McCarthy and Rodgers both spoke of the need for urgency in the red zone afterwards and have made that a focus of the offenses practice regimen this week.

The D took some hits last week. DT’s Mike Daniels and Josh Boyd missed practice this week with injuries and CB Sam Shields has not yet cleared the concussion protocol after leaving early last week. The defense will look to extend their current run and could move up in the rankings again. As the season has ground along the defense has shown signs of not only renewed life but also that they are coming together as a unit. Identifying as the ILB position as the D’s weak link moving Matthews inside has sent Brad Jones and A. J. Hawk to the bench more frequently but has given opportunities for Mike Neal and Nick Perry to be on the field for more often. 2^nd year man Sam Barrington has seen far more time on the field and has brought some thump with him. For the obsessive/ compulsive fan now would be a good time to start evaluation which ILB’s Green Bay will be targeting in the upcoming draft.

But for the Falcons the task is only enormous. Lambeau Field has become again a distinct home field edge for the Packers. Green Bay has the highest winning percentage in prime time of any team in the NFL. The Pack’s offense is clicking. Rodgers is facing the 32^nd pass defense. This one is a bit of a stretch but we have to go against Skippy Bayless and say “Bye Bye Birdie”.

 GREEN BAY 41  

  Atlanta 16