RED HOT RIVALRY IN AN ICEBOX

San Francisco Comes into Frozen Lambeau

to Renew Rivalry

At the end of October the Chicago Bears broke Aaron Rodgers’ left collarbone. 2 months later Rodgers broke the Bears heart by pulling off a last minute miracle in eliminating the Bears from the playoffs with a stunning 48 yard TD toss to a wide open Randall Cobb.

Last year in the playoffs the 49ers hung a 579 yard day on the Packers knocking Green Bay from the playoffs. The Packers responded by going defense heavy in the draft and practicing hard against the read option that Colin Kaepernick used to run the Packers over. In game 1 of the season the Packers did a far better job of containing the read option and the rush but left the attention to pass coverage detail wanting. Kaepernick’s did not pull many running capers; he threw for a personal best 412 yards in knocking Green Bay off once again. As the Packers slapped the foreheads in an act of futility it may be fitting that in this star-crossed, injury ravaged season that the Pack and Niners tee it up one more time.

There is a huge difference in this game however.

It will not be played in the relative comfort of the California sunshine. This rematch takes place on what will literally be the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. Expected game time temperatures are expected to be anywhere from the single digits to minus digits. The defining moment in Packer lore is the Ice Bowl played in 1965 against the Dallas Cowboys, a game that saw the thermometer plunge to -15 degrees before game time. The Fox Network’s highlight game of the week looks to be every bit the equal to that fabled battle weather wise. As a massive Nor’easter blew through much of the country dumping snow everywhere in its wake it has been followed but the Arctic Express, a cold front of bone chilling proportion that will take a seat on the 50 yard line for the game.

The weather has been such a factor that the unthinkable in Green Bay is occurring. The Packers are having difficulty in selling all their tickets. That is not a typo – as of this writing Green bay still has some 10,000 tickets left for the game. A Playoff game for Pete’s sake. The Packers have a waiting list of 81,000 that would take the average individual some 35 years to acquire and they can’t well out a playoff game? How is that possible?

Consider that the 49ers are one of the newfangled ‘elite’ teams of the NFC, Seattle being the other. The Packers are seen as a good, but no longer great team. The 49ers and Kaepernick have had their way with Green Bay in the past 2 seasons. Maybe the fans don’t want to see round 3. Maybe the combination of brutal cold and a Packer loss is too much even for hardened Wisconsinites.

The weather may end up playing a large role in the outcome. While both teams have to play in the same conditions it is traditionally accepted that a team just cannot prepare itself for the conditions under which they must execute. For the Packers while they do not suit up and practice outside in the frigid air they nonetheless have to live in it. They have to shovel driveways, drive to work, go to the store and in general be exposed to the Ice Age by virtue of simply living in Green bay during the season. They are used to it, like it or not.

San Francisco on the other hand, has the relative warmth of California to get ready. It is much harder for a team to come in and execute in these brutal conditions. The second half of the game will tell the story of the game. The team that can brave the elements, especially in the 2^nd half when the sun goes down and Old Man Winter’s grip on aching hamstrings becomes tighter has the best shot at walking out of the ice box and into the next round.

If the Packers are to be successful they’ll have to start doing something they have not done well since week 7 – stop the run. This is a game that will most assuredly feature bruising running games that will test the mettle, resolve and skill of the opponent’s defense. The Niners come in as the #3 ranked rushing team behind Frank Gore and the Packers are an impressive #7 after languishing near the bottom of the league in rushing for several years now. Rookie of the Year candidate Eddie Lacy has brought punch, pop, and power to the Packers vaunted passing attack. He broke John Brockington’s rookie rushing and touchdown record for the Packers by posting almost 1,200 yards and 11 TD’s in his inaugural season and he has become the bell cow of the rushing attack.

Super Bowl and playoff hero as a rookie James Starks has been terrific in the #2 role. Maybe Starks wasn’t a true lead back all along. Starks has the power of Lacy but with more speed, and quicker moves than Lacy. Where Lacy is more content to lower his head and use his considerable leg strength to drive a pile backwards Starks’ legs look as if they are going to run off his body a la Tom and Jerry style. Starks has had (almost) a 500 yard season and there is little drop-off when he takes the field. In a reduced role Starks is embodying the ‘less is more’ approach to his running game.

Frank Gore continues to be one of the true workhorses of the NFL.  Make no mistake – while Kaepernick is the marquee face for the 49ers the heart and soul of the offense is Gore. Gore and Lacy are almost mirror images of each other. For the season Lacy ranked #8 in rushing with 1,178 yards and a 4.1 yards/ carry avg. and Gore ranked #9 with 1,128 yards and a 4.1 yards/ carry average. Gore was right behind Lacy’s 11 TD’s with 9 of his own.

The big difference in rushing is that at #43 and 44 are Colin Kaepernick (524 total yards) and James Starks (493 yards rushing). Will Kaepernick still be running in the cold of Green Bay and risk getting hit? Without Clay Matthews the Packers face a tall order in keeping the Niners rushing in check.

But doing so will be the key to bringing down their current nemesis.  Kaepernick has had the Packers number since taking over for the now departed Alex Smith. While Kaepernick along with Russell Wilson have become the prototype new age read-option QB’s the Niner passing attack is a minuscule #30 overall. Green Bay has become what Mike McCarthy has wanted for some time – a balanced run/ pass attacking team that uses the run tom open up the passing lanes. San Fran is more reliant on the passing threats to minimize the numbers in the box to contain Gore. In spite of San Francisco’s rank their passing game cannot be ignored or overlooked. Kaepernick has been far more judicious in his running this year. He has used the threat of a run to make his passing more effective. And Kaepernick has a big arm. How well will his hands function when exposed to an unrelenting cold? Look for more fumbles and missed shot passes than usual in the bluster.

Containing Gore is what the Packers managed to accomplish in week 1. In keeping Gore from running wild though Kaepernick had a career day in throwing for an ugly 412 yards against a worn out, depleted Packer secondary. Over the course of the season Anquin Boldin has become Kaepernick’s favorite target, his go to guy. Boldin wore the Packers out in week 1 and has Super Bowl experience under his belt. Former top draft pick Michael Crabtree has yet to establish himself as a true #1 but is no less reliable and he possesses run after the catch ability. Injuries and hampered him this year but he will most likely be covered by Sam Shields. Shields along with Tramon Williams are playing at the top of their collective games right now. They will need to continue their shut down status to give Arod & Co. a shot to put up enough to move on.

The biggest X factor offensively for both teams will be TE Vernon Davis. Davis is a matchup nightmare with his combination of size and speed and soft hands. Davis singlehandedly carried the 49ers last year in the playoffs; his show against New Orleans last year will be NFL highlight material for the next 100 years. The Green Bay linebacking corps has been seriously depleted and outplayed this year. A.J. Hawk, Brad Jones and Jamari Lattimore cannot afford to have an Erik Walden-esque performance from last year to have any hope.

San Francisco has a tough, physical, relentless defense led by its’ twin linebacking terrors in Navarro Bowman and Patrick Willis. Up front Aldon and Justin Smith anchor a stout 49er front 7. Penetrating this group will not be easy. Aldon Smith has had an off year as his off field exploits have earned him much more notoriety than his on field accomplishments. The Niners are a ferocious, gang tackling group that can make an offense pay the price for daring to run through them.

The Packers have struggled mightily against the run this year. After ranking as high as 5^th against the

run the Packers suddenly threw it into reverse and fell off the map of respectability. The front 7 have had injuries (Johnny Jolly, Matthews, Jones, CB Casey Hayward, and Perry) but the fact is they have been beaten physically at the line. The Packers front 3’s inability to beat their man and get off their blocks has been most troublesome. Rookie Datone Jones has had trouble assimilating into a pro’s job and has yet to establish himself. One area that needs to be addressed is at the OLB opposite Clay Matthews. In a nutshell outside of Matthews the Packers do not employ another true Outside Linebacker. Mike Neal and Nick Perry play the spot but both are converted DE’s and are still growing into the position. Neal has had a nice, solid year and has made the transition better than most thought he would. Perry has battled injuries and has yet to make his mark in a game. He was in the right direction early but a broken foot in Baltimore put him back. He will need to step it up to offset Matthews’ loss.

If there is an advantage that is clear it is the Packers’ WR’s vs. the Niners secondary. CB Carlos Rogers is already nursing an ailing hamstring so that will leave a matchup of Randall Cobb and Eric Wright, a head to head that Aaron Rodgers will likely look to exploit. If Cobb can get thru the fierce 49er LB’s on his patented slant routes and find some space it could make things very uncomfortable for Niner Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. If the Packers stunning comeback against the Bears last week is any indicator it is that 1: Rodgers is back, 2: Cobb is back, 3: The Packers are much better with both #1 and 2. Jordy Nelson has been Mr. Consistent and James Jones has been Mr. Reliable. Since losing TE Jermichael Finley to a scary bruised spinal cord injury TE Andrew Quarless has been coming on strong of late. WR Jarrett Boykin, the loose ball hero of last week’s bizarre TD against Chicago has also made key contributions and has become a threat in his own right.

The respective teams’ records are very misleading and can be tossed out with the Christmas wrapping paper now. At 11-5 San Fran has not played a meaningful game in some time. To bear out how compelling that fact is harken back to 2011. The Packers assaulted the season with a 15-1 record and looked invincible. The Giants brought the high flying Pack back to earth with a thud. Playoffs require another gear, a sense of urgency. The Packers have been under that Sword of Damocles since Rodgers went out. There was the losing streak. Matt Flynn’s arrival and salvaging of a season that looked defunct after the Thanksgiving Day disaster against Detroit. Having their back to the wall 3 times along the way and having Flynn lead 2 furious comebacks for wins. Atlanta. The epic Dallas comeback. Rodgers on the last offensive play of the Packers season killing the Bears off to claim the North crown.

Battle tested?

The Packers have been under so much heat they are char-broiled at this point. Turning it on in the bitter cold may be harder than the Niners think. It could ultimately be the deciding factor. San Francisco may find itself in the role the Packers were 2 years ago. Turnovers and time of possession will be the stats that determine the winner.

This one will be close. It will be much closer than most would expect. On paper the 49ers are the better team. But that is on paper. At last check the Niners had a far better record at 11- 5 than the Packer’s 8 -7-1. Leaving sunny Cali for the icy mid-west should make San Fran a bit testy about not having home field advantage. Such is the quirky life in the NFL. At last check the game itself is played on a field. But that, too, is on paper. Throw the records out now; both teams are 0-0 and will settle this one on the field.

A bitterly cold, frozen, snow covered field. This will be an upset, THE upset of the weekend.

 

 

 

 

 GREEN BAY 27  

 

 

  San Francisco  24