KNOCKED OUT COLD

As 49ers Advance an Evaluation of

What Was and What Could Be

And in the end it was a microcosm of the Packers year. The offense needed one more drive. Too many injuries. The defense unable to make a key 3^rd down stop – twice. Opponents running at will. The defense (again) not being able to shut down 3^rd and long situations (again). Missed opportunities. Redemption. Colin Kaepernick sticking it to the Pack. Again. And again.  Despair. A long, cold off season and yet – hope.



Photo Courtesy of Michael Slater - Thanks Michael!



There is no denying the talent and grit of Colin Kaepernick. He is a Milwaukee boy who grew up in the cold wearing green and gold as did his California counterpart Aaron Rodgers who grew up in Chico, Ca. a hard core Niners fan. Kaepernick showed toughness and mettle in using everything around him to lead the 49ers past the Packers and the arctic blast meat cooler that served as Lambeau Field in a record setting 23- 20 down to the last second battle. The game itself drew a record 47.1 million viewers easily eclipsing the previous record for viewers of a Wild Card game by some estimated 5 million viewers who took in a classic bare knuckle brawl. The undermanned and game Packers hung in the entire way and as Lombardi’s Packers once said – they didn’t get beat. They just ran out of time.

At game time it the thermometer registered 5 degrees and the wind chill made it worse. Some 81,000 gathered in the bluster to watch a great game. Great, but disappointing.  The Packer offense took too long to get started as their first 3 drives were 3 and outs. The Packer defense showed up for this game. Twice early on the 49ers were able to penetrate the red zone but the defense yielded only 2 field goals.

For the most part Frank Gore was held in check. But Vernon Davis was a matchup problem for whom the Packers and Dom Capers could not find an answer. Michael Crabtree and Anquin Boldin made key contributions to the Niner cause and Packer fans simply have to tip their hats to Jim Harbaugh and his squad and acknowledge that like it or not that’s a damn fine football team they have over there.

San Francisco escaping frigid Green Bay with a win is the story. For the Packers it is a story of so close, just one more play. Just one. So agonizingly close was a depleted Packers squad that was honorable in defeat. The Niners beat the Packers and the cold and did not beat themselves. The Packer defense has nothing to hang its head over either. The D showed up and made plays. The biggest play, the one that could have swung it the other way came during the Niners last drive when rookie Micah Hyde went up for an unusual Kaepernick underthrow and got both hands on the ball but was unable to haul it down at the San Fran 30 with the score knotted at 20.

 “I tried to get up there and get it [the ball]” said Hyde afterward “and I just dropped it. It was a catch I should have made. I was there to make the play and it slipped out of my hands.” Hyde was not alone in an oh-so-close game of tiny details with enormous impacts. Jarrett Bush had the contain side on the right, a spot usually occupied by Clay Matthews. But Matthews was out after rebreaking his thumb. On the final drive facing 3^rd and 8 Kaepernick pump faked the blitzing Bush into the air as Bush cut inside where he was picked up in a block and leapt but left the outside open and uncovered. “I tried to get my hands up and tried to make a tip” said Bush. “If I bat it down, it’s 4^th down.”

But instead as Kaepernick saw Bush leave his feet he alertly darted outside into the vacancy Bush created and outraced Andy Mulamba who was playing gamely on an injured knee. As he picked up another key 1^st down in a drive that saw the Packers unable to hold two separate 3^rd and longs, the other being a 3^rd and 10 earlier in the drive, it extended not only the Niners drive but their season and their mastery of the Packers. Now having won 4 straight at the expense of Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers the Packers go into the off season with the knowledge that they could have been there.

For his part Rodgers took a while to get loose but when he did there were at least 3 key moments that could have changed the outcome. Twice James Jones was open ever so slightly but had a perfect throw from Rodgers, one on a deep sideline and one in the end zone, but was unable to close his frozen fingers around the rock of a ball. Randall Cobb and Rodgers hooked up again in yet another highlight reel TD as Rodgers played Houdini and somehow managed to twist himself, his arm and the ball in 3 different directions on 4^th down to escape a furies pass rush and hit Cobb on a dime with a mighty heave that set up John Kuhn’s TD plunge. And how large was the deep ball later that Cobb yanked down and was yanked down himself just shy of the goal line? The next 3 plays were denied as Green Bay settled for a field goal with the end zone so tantalizingly close. “I’ve got to learn how to break those [types of] tackles” said Cobb after the game. One more play, just a little more and the 4 extra points would have come in mighty handy as the 49er defense denied the Packers the end zone on three straight runs.

The thrill ride has come to an end and the players have done their exit interviews, cleaned out their lockers and are headed in different directions as they heal their aching, battered and bone chilled bodies. The season will go down in Packer lore as one of the most trying given all the injuries and circumstances and at the same time some of the most heart stopping games in the process.

The epic Matt Flynn-led comeback against Dallas will haunt the Cowboys until the next century. Same thing in Chicago after Rodgers hit Randall Cobb on what will become known simply as “48”, a 4^th and 8 completion for a touchdown with 48 seconds left. Rodgers’ injury that crippled the Packers offense. Matthews’ injury that crippled the Packers defense. The emergence of what many believe will be the Rookie of the Year in Eddie Lacy. The unexpectedly solid play of rookie LT Davis Bahktiari. Jarrett Boykin stepping up to contribute. It was a memorable and yet at times forgettable year. The losing streak. The injuries. The Thanksgiving Day massacre against Detroit. Coming so close but still short against San Fran. First-rounders Bryan Bulaga, Derrick Sherrod, Nick Perry and Datone Jones not living up to their draft positions, some due to injury, some due to the learning curve.

As the Packers head into the off season it is an offseason that will see much change in Titletown. There is a literal free agent crush happening that will keep the Packer brass busy for months in deciding who gets a contract and who gets a walk. Among the many in free agency are those not likely to return: Marshall Newhouse, Kahlil Bell, and Seneca Wallace. Jermichael Finley’s season ending spinal cord injury keeps his status in limbo but fellow free agent Andrew Quarless greatly improved his stock with his play and will likely earn another deal. Quarless does not have Finley’s skill set and the loss of Finley hurt the Packers badly in the red zone, an area the Packer offense struggled in all season.

Those on the fence would include Johnny Jolly, the feel-good comeback story of the year but at age 30 he will probably be back if the price is right for the team that stuck by him. Lump Mike Neal, John Kuhn and Evan Dietrich-Smith into that category. Their play and value to the team should keep them around for a bit. Neal may be a numbers casualty and EDS may want to pull a Scott Wells and test the free agency waters while Kuhn will most likely stay. But in order to do so the price will have to fit the Pack’s cap. Those in limbo and may see some interest at a lower price would be Matt Flynn who is in almost a shotgun marriage with the Pack as he can’t find work as a starter elsewhere but has done remarkably well in Green Bay. LB Rob Francois and DE C.J. Wilson may also get a deal – unless the Packers can draft a better alternative. Would Ted Thompson be compelled to try the waters of free agency? Not likely with so many contracts and deals to be made. Those on the lower end of the totem pole (translation: those with lesser bargaining power) may have to wait to find out if the get a deal or have to bargain or pack their bags for elsewhere.

Yes, there is room to bargain but there are bigger fish to fry.

Like B.J. Raji, James Starks, James Jones and Sam Shields. Raji is a key component of the defensive line but his play has been under the radar consistent. In a sense that is an indictment as Raji did not register a sack all year but plays in a system not designed for him to do so. Shields wisely played for the big contract and his gamble will pay off huge either in Green Bay or elsewhere. Can the Packers afford Shields? With Hyde, Tramon Williams, Davon House and returning injured CB Casey Hayward does Thompson and McCarthy have enough to feel good about if Shields skips town for a warmer climate? And if the dollars out there and offered to him, who could blame Shields for cashing in and bolting?

The James Gang of Starks and Jones should also likely see mid to long term deals. Both may want #1 money for their position but are unlikely to get it. Starks has been terrific as a #2 back behind Lacy and Jones may think of himself as a #1 but his drops didn’t help his cause at all. Starks is most likely to generate interest but his injury history will scare off some buyers. His upside as an impact player is undeniable. This is the ugly, business side of football. The fans want to see their favorites return, even the players would like to return, but if the grass – and dollars – are greener on the other side of the fence how can they say no?

Knowing who to keep and making it fit your budget is the new NFL. Expect many roster turnovers this off season. And also expect some personnel shakeups. The safety position is one that needs an upgrade. For the year the Packers’ Safeties registered 0 interceptions, 4 forced fumbles and 2 fumble recoveries… and that is as a unit, not individual stats. Morgan Burnett signed a 4 year deal last year but injuries slowed him and even in his return he hardly distinguished himself. One prominent name in free agency is Buffalo’s Jarius Byrd. With the number of in house free agents will there be enough room and or time and or money to go after a player of Byrd’s caliber?  Hyde may make a positional shift as his nose for the ball, size, and strength would be an asset. Another area of rethink is to avoid doing just that. McCarthy and Dom Capers have been trying for several years to play players out of their natural positions. Nick Perry and Mike Neal are perfect examples – both are converted college DE’s playing OLB. While both have played well compared to Matthews there is a serious drop-off. Of course that’s states the obvious as few OLB’s are in Matthews’s class.

The notion of retraining positional players has hurt Green Bay’s defense. If Shields does leave moving Hyde makes less sense than drafting a Safety. In an early draft preview get familiar with two names that should be high on the Pack’s draft board: Alabama Safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and OLB Anthony Barr from UCLA. Clinton –Dix is a big hitter with a nose for the ball that has drawn favorable comparisons to Seattle’s Earl Thomas while Barr is in the DeMarcus Ware mold of high energy hitters that can cover in pass plays and play in space and that’s only if he’s still around when the Packers pick. If Clinton-Dix or S Calvin Pryor have been taken by the Cowboys or Bears, both of whom need safety help as well, the Pack could go after a TE in the 1^st round (Eric Ebron/ North Carolina) or DT Ra’Shede  Hageman (6’6”/ 311 lbs./ Minn.) if Raji can’t be signed and look for a S later in the draft (S Deone Bucannon / Wash. St. or Ahmad Dixon/ Baylor).

Going into next year there is much optimism. Yes, optimistic would be appropriate. Considering the volume of key players not on the field due to injuries the offense looks like it is loaded for bear barring injury. That was the case this year. How good could the offense be? Veteran LT Bryan Bulaga was a stud in camp until a freak ACL tear. His presence means that the shining rookie star David Bahktiari could move from the left to the right side. Bahktiari is a flat out football player but will have to unseat Don Barclay, another young standout who stood up all year. Add former #1 pick Derrick Sherrod into the mix. If he can finally return from a broken leg what impact does he carry? The question that needs to be asked is can he return to the player he was when drafted or will he fall into the Justin Harrell black hole? Now toss in IR’d Greg van Roten and rookie J.C. Tretter  who can also play C and incumbent RG T.J. Lang could conceivably move down on the depth chart if – IF – the players can return. All of this will likely squeeze Newhouse away from the trough.

While Lacy and Starks were a powerful 1-2 punch don’t forget about last year’s late season addition in DuJuan Harris as well as rookie Jonathan Franklin. Will 4 backs be back, and if so does that make John Kuhn expendable at a dying position as a FB? In any event the Packer running game is now a robust, fearsome unit with Lacy at the point. If James Jones leaves that opens the door for rookie WR Kevin Dorsey, a Maryland speedster who sat the year out on IR. With Cobb, Jordy Nelson and Boykin the Packers still have a ferocious attack. At the TE spot Finley’s injury paved the way for Quarless to shine. Ryan Taylor will earn a spot but Jake Stoneburner will be on the bubble as IR’d TE Brandon Bostick has a big upside. Finley’s long term health outweighs his football life for the moment as he continues to recover.

The offense will return stout. On the defense the defensive line needs a thorough re-evaluation. While Mike Daniels flashed and was a disruptive force far too often the defensive line was tagged with not shedding blocks, not filling gaps, not winning the one on ones and most damning being outmuscled. Raji will most likely get a contract but not at what he hoped in terms of dollars. Jolly was a solid run stuffer until he went down and if Jerel Worthy could return from injury he, too, could have an immediate impact. Teams ran at will at times and while injuries hurt the linebackers it has become clear that there is a pressing need for linebackers as well as safeties.

A.J. Hawk has been consistent but his lack of speed is obvious. Brad Jones got a 4 year deal but was more often than not behind the play. Impact LB’s are high on the Packers shopping list going into the draft. Anthony Barr (UCLA) and Alabama’s C.J. Mosely will make the first round interesting for Green Bay. There may even be another LB taken in the 2^nd round if Stanford’s Trent Smith is still available. Will this year’s crop that sat on the IR help? Nate Palmer, Sam Barrington, Jamari Lattimore and Francois all saw more time out than on the field. Inside and outside help is needed and if – that damned word IF – Perry could stay healthy…

The safety play is in a word awful this past year. Burnett missed games early on but was not a ball hawk, and his opposite S did less. Sean Richardson returned after neck surgery but did not impact. M.D. Jennings slid backwards this year making the need to address this position that was not addressed last year very high on the agenda. Ha Ha (his given name is Ha’Sean but he goes by ‘Ha Ha’) Clinton-Dix from Alabama is a very appealing first round prospect. While a little light in the pants at 208 lbs. Clinton-Dix is a player who makes plays all over the field and carries a nasty side that could immediately upgrade the back of the D. He may not last in the 1^st round, but if he is still available he may fit not only an immediate need but be the BPA. Some teams may shy away from him due to his off field antics – he was suspended by Alabama earlier in the season for borrowing money from a conditioning coach – Green Bay may be a place for him to mature.

There was much grumbling among Packer Nation about the coaching particularly in the case of DC Dom Capers. Much of it is unfounded and don’t look for Capers to be ousted. Given the rash of injuries Capers was forced to make do with less far more often than not. The fact that the Packers were even in the playoffs given their IR list is a testament to the job done by the coaching staff to continue to be among the NFL’s playoff contenders. Giving Capers a healthy roster would greatly improve his coaching. A coach can only do so much with the talent he has on the field. Far too frequently the Packers simply ran out of healthy bodies, a fact that can’t be ignored or disputed or laid at the doorstep of Capers. Capers still has McCarthy’s support and McCarthy has Capers’ back. When asked about the job his defensive coordinator did McCarthy had a quick reply. “I’m not looking to make big changes. I think Dom Capers is an outstanding football coach and I’m glad he’s on our staff” said the Pack’s head coach. Mike Neal was vociferous in defense of Capers. ” "I think (Capers) is a great coach," Neal said. “Honestly. I read a little bit about what these people say about Dom, and people don’t know what the hell they’re talking about. If you’ve never put the pads on, if you’ve never laced the cleats up, if you’ve never coached, if you’ve never sat in the room and understood the playbook, I don’t want to hear anything you’ve got to say about it. From that standpoint, I think Dom’s a great coach."

Tramon Williams went one step further by saying he felt the Packers may be “…too young…”

"Even though we always say it's a young league, yeah, it's a young league, but it's an old league, too, because the old guys make the league go," Williams said. "That's the guys who've been there before, who know how to prepare, who mold the young guys. That's what they're there for."

Williams himself is 30 years old and is due $7.5 million in the coming year. Could he, too, be a numbers cap casualty?  “I'm not that old," Williams said. "It's just one of those deals to where you don't want to . . .  we keep being young around here, but you don't want to disvalue the veteran players, because they actually mold the younger players. I was with (Charles) Woodson and those guys, and those guys molded me. I know what it takes."

While the Packers have sought to get younger and more athletic through the draft especially on defense it will take time for that tree to bear some fruit. In the case of Nick Perry and Datone Jones adjusting to the pros is a process, one for which there is no shortcut or clear, easy path. Neal has become a contributor but that is after 3 long, injury riddled and frustrating seasons. Maybe a veteran or two would be a welcome change in the offseason. Regardless the Packer defense is most likely to have many of the same coaches but far more new faces going into 2014.

Lost in the hubbub of the end of the star-crossed season was Mason Crosby’s redemption and return to form. Crosby was nothing less than awful a season ago and that has become a rapid, distant memory. Crosby became the reliable, cold weather kicker the Packers needed and saved several games for Green Bay with his leg as he silenced his critics with an outstanding year. He knocked one thru from 57 yards and should have little competitor going in to next year. He and P Tim Masthay appear to be among those almost guaranteed a roster spot next year based on their performance.

The end was a disappointment naturally. But for anyone who has ever ridden a 200’ tall roller coaster they’ll describe the experience as a thrilling, terrifying, nauseating, exciting rush of adrenaline that, once it was done, caused one to just sit back, take a deep breath and catch their wits once again. And as soon as the head stops spinning, the knees start strengthening and moment that just passed has registered the inevitable becomes apparent.

Wow… what a ride! I can’t wait to do it again!

See you all next season.