KNOCKED OUT COLD
As 49ers Advance an Evaluation
of
What Was and What Could Be
And in the
end it was a microcosm of the Packers year. The offense needed one more drive.
Too many injuries. The defense unable to make a key 3rd down stop –
twice. Opponents running at will. The defense (again) not being able to shut
down 3rd and long situations (again). Missed opportunities.
Redemption. Colin Kaepernick sticking
it to the Pack. Again. And again. Despair.
A long, cold off season and yet – hope.
Photo Courtesy of Michael Slater - Thanks Michael! |
There is no
denying the talent and grit of Colin
Kaepernick. He is a Milwaukee boy who grew up in the cold wearing green and
gold as did his California counterpart Aaron
Rodgers who grew up in Chico, Ca. a hard core Niners fan. Kaepernick showed toughness and mettle
in using everything around him to lead the 49ers past the Packers and the arctic
blast meat cooler that served as Lambeau Field in a record setting 23- 20 down to
the last second battle. The game itself drew a record 47.1 million viewers
easily eclipsing the previous record for viewers of a Wild Card game by some
estimated 5 million viewers who took in a classic bare knuckle brawl. The undermanned
and game Packers hung in the entire way and as Lombardi’s Packers once said – they didn’t get beat. They just ran
out of time.
At game time
it the thermometer registered 5 degrees and the wind chill made it worse. Some
81,000 gathered in the bluster to watch a great game. Great, but
disappointing. The Packer offense took
too long to get started as their first 3 drives were 3 and outs. The Packer defense
showed up for this game. Twice early on the 49ers were able to penetrate the
red zone but the defense yielded only 2 field goals.
For the most
part Frank Gore was held in check.
But Vernon Davis was a matchup
problem for whom the Packers and Dom
Capers could not find an answer. Michael
Crabtree and Anquin Boldin made key contributions to the Niner cause and
Packer fans simply have to tip their hats to Jim Harbaugh and his squad and acknowledge that like it or not
that’s a damn fine football team they have over there.
San
Francisco escaping frigid Green Bay with a win is the story. For the Packers it
is a story of so close, just one more play. Just one. So agonizingly close was
a depleted Packers squad that was honorable in defeat. The Niners beat the
Packers and the cold and did not beat themselves. The Packer defense has
nothing to hang its head over either. The D showed up and made plays. The
biggest play, the one that could have swung it the other way came during the
Niners last drive when rookie Micah Hyde
went up for an unusual Kaepernick underthrow and got both hands on the ball but
was unable to haul it down at the San Fran 30 with the score knotted at 20.
“I tried to get up there and get it [the
ball]” said Hyde afterward “and I
just dropped it. It was a catch I should have made. I was there to make the
play and it slipped out of my hands.” Hyde was not alone in an oh-so-close game
of tiny details with enormous impacts. Jarrett
Bush had the contain side on the right, a spot usually occupied by Clay Matthews. But Matthews was out after rebreaking his thumb. On the final drive
facing 3rd and 8 Kaepernick pump
faked the blitzing Bush into the air
as Bush cut inside where he was
picked up in a block and leapt but left the outside open and uncovered. “I
tried to get my hands up and tried to make a tip” said Bush. “If I bat it down, it’s 4th down.”
But instead
as Kaepernick saw Bush leave his feet he alertly darted
outside into the vacancy Bush created
and outraced Andy Mulamba who was
playing gamely on an injured knee. As he picked up another key 1st
down in a drive that saw the Packers unable to hold two separate 3rd
and longs, the other being a 3rd and 10 earlier in the drive, it
extended not only the Niners drive but their season and their mastery of the
Packers. Now having won 4 straight at the expense of Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers the Packers go into the off season
with the knowledge that they could have been there.
For his part
Rodgers took a while to get loose
but when he did there were at least 3 key moments that could have changed the
outcome. Twice James Jones was open
ever so slightly but had a perfect throw from Rodgers, one on a deep sideline and one in the end zone, but was
unable to close his frozen fingers around the rock of a ball. Randall Cobb and Rodgers hooked up
again in yet another highlight reel TD as Rodgers
played Houdini and somehow managed to twist himself, his arm and the ball
in 3 different directions on 4th down to escape a furies pass rush
and hit Cobb on a dime with a mighty
heave that set up John Kuhn’s TD
plunge. And how large was the deep ball later that Cobb yanked down and was yanked down himself just shy of the goal
line? The next 3 plays were denied as Green Bay settled for a field goal with
the end zone so tantalizingly close. “I’ve got to learn how to break those
[types of] tackles” said Cobb after
the game. One more play, just a little more and the 4 extra points would have
come in mighty handy as the 49er defense denied the Packers the end zone on
three straight runs.
The thrill
ride has come to an end and the players have done their exit interviews,
cleaned out their lockers and are headed in different directions as they heal
their aching, battered and bone chilled bodies. The season will go down in
Packer lore as one of the most trying given all the injuries and circumstances
and at the same time some of the most heart stopping games in the process.
The epic Matt Flynn-led comeback against Dallas
will haunt the Cowboys until the next century. Same thing in Chicago after Rodgers hit Randall Cobb on what will
become known simply as “48”, a 4th and 8 completion for a touchdown
with 48 seconds left. Rodgers’ injury
that crippled the Packers offense. Matthews’
injury that crippled the Packers defense. The emergence of what many
believe will be the Rookie of the Year in Eddie
Lacy. The unexpectedly solid play of rookie LT Davis Bahktiari. Jarrett Boykin stepping up to contribute. It
was a memorable and yet at times forgettable year. The losing streak. The
injuries. The Thanksgiving Day massacre against Detroit. Coming so close but
still short against San Fran. First-rounders Bryan Bulaga, Derrick Sherrod, Nick Perry and Datone Jones not
living up to their draft positions, some due to injury, some due to the
learning curve.
As the Packers
head into the off season it is an offseason that will see much change in
Titletown. There is a literal free agent crush happening that will keep the
Packer brass busy for months in deciding who gets a contract and who gets a
walk. Among the many in free agency are those not likely to return: Marshall Newhouse, Kahlil Bell, and Seneca
Wallace. Jermichael Finley’s season ending spinal cord injury keeps his
status in limbo but fellow free agent Andrew
Quarless greatly improved his stock with his play and will likely earn
another deal. Quarless does not have
Finley’s skill set and the loss of Finley hurt the Packers badly in the
red zone, an area the Packer offense struggled in all season.
Those on the
fence would include Johnny Jolly,
the feel-good comeback story of the year but at age 30 he will probably be back
if the price is right for the team that stuck by him. Lump Mike Neal, John Kuhn and Evan Dietrich-Smith into that category.
Their play and value to the team should keep them around for a bit. Neal may be a numbers casualty and EDS may want to pull a Scott Wells and test the free agency
waters while Kuhn will most likely
stay. But in order to do so the price will have to fit the Pack’s cap. Those in
limbo and may see some interest at a lower price would be Matt Flynn who is in almost a shotgun marriage with the Pack as he
can’t find work as a starter elsewhere but has done remarkably well in Green
Bay. LB Rob Francois and DE C.J. Wilson
may also get a deal – unless the Packers can draft a better alternative. Would Ted Thompson be compelled to try the waters
of free agency? Not likely with so many contracts and deals to be made. Those
on the lower end of the totem pole (translation: those with lesser bargaining
power) may have to wait to find out if the get a deal or have to bargain or
pack their bags for elsewhere.
Yes, there
is room to bargain but there are bigger fish to fry.
Like B.J. Raji, James Starks, James
Jones and Sam Shields. Raji is a key component of the defensive line but his play has been under the
radar consistent. In a sense that is an indictment as Raji did not register a sack all year but plays in a system not
designed for him to do so. Shields wisely
played for the big contract and his gamble will pay off huge either in Green
Bay or elsewhere. Can the Packers afford Shields? With Hyde, Tramon Williams, Davon House and returning injured CB Casey Hayward does Thompson and McCarthy have enough to
feel good about if Shields skips
town for a warmer climate? And if the dollars out there and offered to him, who
could blame Shields for cashing in
and bolting?
The James Gang of Starks and Jones should
also likely see mid to long term deals. Both may want #1 money for their position
but are unlikely to get it. Starks
has been terrific as a #2 back behind Lacy
and Jones may think of himself as a #1 but his drops didn’t help his cause
at all. Starks is most likely to
generate interest but his injury history will scare off some buyers. His upside
as an impact player is undeniable. This is the ugly, business side of football.
The fans want to see their favorites return, even the players would like to
return, but if the grass – and dollars – are greener on the other side of the
fence how can they say no?
Knowing who
to keep and making it fit your budget is the new NFL. Expect many roster
turnovers this off season. And also expect some personnel shakeups. The safety
position is one that needs an upgrade. For the year the Packers’ Safeties
registered 0 interceptions, 4 forced fumbles and 2 fumble recoveries… and that
is as a unit, not individual stats. Morgan
Burnett signed a 4 year deal last year but injuries slowed him and even in
his return he hardly distinguished himself. One prominent name in free agency
is Buffalo’s Jarius Byrd. With the
number of in house free agents will there be enough room and or time and or
money to go after a player of Byrd’s
caliber? Hyde may make a positional shift as his
nose for the ball, size, and strength would be an asset. Another area of
rethink is to avoid doing just that. McCarthy
and Dom Capers have been trying for several years to play players out of
their natural positions. Nick Perry and
Mike Neal are perfect examples – both are converted college DE’s playing
OLB. While both have played well compared to Matthews there is a serious drop-off. Of course that’s states the
obvious as few OLB’s are in Matthews’s
class.
The notion
of retraining positional players has hurt Green Bay’s defense. If Shields does leave moving Hyde makes
less sense than drafting a Safety. In an early draft preview get familiar with
two names that should be high on the Pack’s draft board: Alabama Safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and OLB Anthony Barr
from UCLA. Clinton –Dix is a big
hitter with a nose for the ball that has drawn favorable comparisons to
Seattle’s Earl Thomas while Barr is in the DeMarcus Ware mold of high energy hitters that can cover in pass plays
and play in space and that’s only if he’s still around when the Packers pick. If
Clinton-Dix or S Calvin Pryor have been taken by the
Cowboys or Bears, both of whom need safety help as well, the Pack could go
after a TE in the 1st round (Eric
Ebron/ North Carolina) or DT Ra’Shede
Hageman (6’6”/ 311 lbs./ Minn.) if Raji can’t be signed and look for a S
later in the draft (S Deone Bucannon
/ Wash. St. or Ahmad Dixon/ Baylor).
Going into
next year there is much optimism. Yes, optimistic would be appropriate.
Considering the volume of key players not on the field due to injuries the
offense looks like it is loaded for bear barring injury. That was the case this
year. How good could the offense be? Veteran LT Bryan Bulaga was a stud in camp until a freak ACL tear. His
presence means that the shining rookie star David Bahktiari could move from the left to the right side. Bahktiari is a flat out football player
but will have to unseat Don Barclay,
another young standout who stood up all year. Add former #1 pick Derrick Sherrod into the mix. If he can
finally return from a broken leg what impact does he carry? The question that
needs to be asked is can he return to the player he was when drafted or will he
fall into the Justin Harrell black
hole? Now toss in IR’d Greg van Roten and
rookie J.C. Tretter who can also play C and incumbent RG T.J. Lang could conceivably move
down on the depth chart if – IF – the players can return. All of this will
likely squeeze Newhouse away from
the trough.
While Lacy and Starks were a powerful 1-2
punch don’t forget about last year’s late season addition in DuJuan Harris as well as rookie Jonathan Franklin. Will 4 backs be
back, and if so does that make John Kuhn
expendable at a dying position as a FB? In any event the Packer running game is
now a robust, fearsome unit with Lacy
at the point. If James Jones leaves
that opens the door for rookie WR Kevin
Dorsey, a Maryland speedster who sat the year out on IR. With Cobb, Jordy Nelson and Boykin the
Packers still have a ferocious attack. At the TE spot Finley’s injury paved the way for Quarless to shine. Ryan
Taylor will earn a spot but Jake
Stoneburner will be on the bubble as IR’d TE Brandon Bostick has a big upside. Finley’s long term health outweighs his football life for the
moment as he continues to recover.
The offense
will return stout. On the defense the defensive line needs a thorough
re-evaluation. While Mike Daniels flashed
and was a disruptive force far too often the defensive line was tagged with not
shedding blocks, not filling gaps, not winning the one on ones and most damning
being outmuscled. Raji will most
likely get a contract but not at what he hoped in terms of dollars. Jolly was a solid run stuffer until he
went down and if Jerel Worthy could
return from injury he, too, could have an immediate impact. Teams ran at will
at times and while injuries hurt the linebackers it has become clear that there
is a pressing need for linebackers as well as safeties.
A.J. Hawk has been consistent but his lack of speed
is obvious. Brad Jones got a 4 year
deal but was more often than not behind the play. Impact LB’s are high on the
Packers shopping list going into the draft. Anthony Barr (UCLA) and Alabama’s C.J. Mosely will make the first
round interesting for Green Bay. There may even be another LB taken in the 2nd
round if Stanford’s Trent Smith is
still available. Will this year’s crop that sat on the IR help? Nate Palmer, Sam Barrington, Jamari
Lattimore and Francois all saw more time out than on the field. Inside and
outside help is needed and if – that damned word IF – Perry could stay healthy…
The safety play
is in a word awful this past year.
Burnett missed games early on but was not a ball hawk, and his opposite S
did less. Sean Richardson returned
after neck surgery but did not impact. M.D.
Jennings slid backwards this year making the need to address this position
that was not addressed last year very high on the agenda. Ha Ha (his given name is Ha’Sean
but he goes by ‘Ha Ha’) Clinton-Dix
from Alabama is a very appealing first round prospect. While a little light in
the pants at 208 lbs. Clinton-Dix is
a player who makes plays all over the field and carries a nasty side that could
immediately upgrade the back of the D. He may not last in the 1st
round, but if he is still available he may fit not only an immediate need but
be the BPA. Some teams may shy away from him due to his off field antics – he
was suspended by Alabama earlier in the season for borrowing money from a
conditioning coach – Green Bay may be a place for him to mature.
There was
much grumbling among Packer Nation about the coaching particularly in the case
of DC Dom Capers. Much of it is
unfounded and don’t look for Capers
to be ousted. Given the rash of injuries Capers
was forced to make do with less far more often than not. The fact that the
Packers were even in the playoffs given their IR list is a testament to the job
done by the coaching staff to continue to be among the NFL’s playoff
contenders. Giving Capers a healthy
roster would greatly improve his coaching. A coach can only do so much with the
talent he has on the field. Far too frequently the Packers simply ran out of
healthy bodies, a fact that can’t be ignored or disputed or laid at the
doorstep of Capers. Capers still has
McCarthy’s support and McCarthy has Capers’ back. When asked about the job his defensive coordinator
did McCarthy had a quick reply. “I’m not looking to make big changes. I
think Dom Capers is an outstanding
football coach and I’m glad he’s on our staff” said the Pack’s head coach. Mike Neal was vociferous in defense of Capers. ”
"I think (Capers) is a
great coach," Neal said. “Honestly.
I read a little bit about what these people say about Dom, and people don’t know what the hell they’re talking about.
If you’ve never put the pads
on, if you’ve never laced the cleats up, if you’ve never coached, if you’ve
never sat in the room and understood the playbook, I don’t want to hear
anything you’ve got to say about it. From that standpoint, I think Dom’s a great coach."
Tramon Williams went one step further by saying he
felt the Packers may be “…too young…”
"Even
though we always say it's a young league, yeah, it's a young league, but it's
an old league, too, because the old guys make the league go," Williams said. "That's the guys
who've been there before, who know how to prepare, who mold the young guys.
That's what they're there for."
Williams himself is 30 years old and is due
$7.5 million in the coming year. Could he, too, be a numbers cap casualty? “I'm not that old," Williams said. "It's just one of those deals to where you
don't want to . . . we keep being young around here, but you don't want
to disvalue the veteran players, because they actually mold the younger
players. I was with (Charles) Woodson
and those guys, and those guys molded me. I know what it takes."
While the
Packers have sought to get younger and more athletic through the draft especially
on defense it will take time for that tree to bear some fruit. In the case of Nick Perry and Datone Jones adjusting
to the pros is a process, one for which there is no shortcut or clear, easy
path. Neal has become a contributor
but that is after 3 long, injury riddled and frustrating seasons. Maybe a veteran
or two would be a welcome change in the offseason. Regardless the Packer
defense is most likely to have many of the same coaches but far more new faces
going into 2014.
Lost in the hubbub
of the end of the star-crossed season was Mason
Crosby’s redemption and return to form.
Crosby was nothing less than awful a season ago and that has become a rapid,
distant memory. Crosby became the
reliable, cold weather kicker the Packers needed and saved several games for
Green Bay with his leg as he silenced his critics with an outstanding year. He
knocked one thru from 57 yards and should have little competitor going in to
next year. He and P Tim Masthay
appear to be among those almost guaranteed a roster spot next year based on
their performance.
The end was
a disappointment naturally. But for anyone who has ever ridden a 200’ tall
roller coaster they’ll describe the experience as a thrilling, terrifying,
nauseating, exciting rush of adrenaline that, once it was done, caused one to
just sit back, take a deep breath and catch their wits once again. And as soon
as the head stops spinning, the knees start strengthening and moment that just
passed has registered the inevitable becomes apparent.
Wow… what a
ride! I can’t wait to do it again!
See you all
next season.