THE SHOWDOWN

Pack Seeks North Title Complete with a Bears Sideshow

 

Be careful what you wish for.

In the first meeting between the Packers and the Bears this year QB Jay Cutler was gleefully wishing his opponents good luck in the press. The Packers responded with a humiliating beatdown. So this time around Da Bears are a little wiser and a lot less foolhardy, right?

Wrong.                               

Up jumps WR Brandon Marshall to take to the papers to boldly declare "I don't like the Green Bay Packers. I'm not going to use the word 'hate,' but I really dislike the Packers and their players," Marshall said. "But you know what? The talk has to back it up. We'll go out there and do everything we have to do to get a win."

Press talk and bulletin board fodder doesn’t win games. Players who make plays win games.

It just doesn’t get better than this. A cold December Sunday, the oldest rivalry in football, two quality teams and the NFC North title literally on the line. The only thing that could make it better would be to have this game played in Lambeau Field and not the glorified city parks and recreation dump called Soldier Field in Chicago.

The new stadium itself is kinda nice. But the playing surface? Soldier Field is universally blasted as one of the worst fields to play on in the NFL. The sod itself is more slipshod and has already been replaced twice this season making the footing treacherous. How much does this hurt the Packers or help the Bears?

In reality maybe very little. The Bears have stellar running back Matt Forte but he has hardly been lights out this year. But make no mistake the Bears have much more than just Forte to carry the offense. The addition of Michael Bush has taken some of the burden from Forte but Chicago has been enigmatic all year; at times they look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders and then they turn right around and get smoked in a head scratching loss. The Bears opened the season 7 -1 and their only loss was a decided thrashing the Packers threw at them. After the Pack embarrassment the Bears went on a tear winning 6 straight games.

’Sustainability’ has never been a part of the Bears lexicon. Since the big start the Bears have slid, skidded, crashed and burned. While they were loudly dancing on the presumed grave of the Packers with their early success, their lone loss against Green Bay be damned, the Packers went through their own series of well-chronicled misfortunes and misadventures. From the halfway point on the Bears have been one of the worst teams in the NFL and have now gone a far less than impressive 1 - 4 losing to the Texans, 49ers, Seahawks and inexplicably the Vikings. It was only 2 weeks earlier the Bears held Minny and Adrian Peterson in check and won handily by a count of 28 -10. Then last week Peterson literally ran wild over the Bears D and now Chicago has seen its’ once daunting lead in the NFC North reduced to second place staring up at Green Bay.

From such a lofty perch the Bears have tumble to the point of putting their post season aspirations in serious jeopardy. Now they must end the free fall against the suddenly hot Packers who are now winning games the way Mike McCarthy had envisioned his team winning games this tear.

McCarthy made no pretenses or excuses about developing and staying committed to a running game this year. Newly acquired Cedric Benson appeared to be the answer until he went down with an injury that ended his year. Alex Green didn’t pan out as a #1 back but came to life when James Starks came in and took over. Green became more effective in the support role and Starks was showing he could be the lead back – until he too went to the IR list.

But Ted Thompson and McCarthy like to keep what they call a few “jars on the shelf”, and the jar they opened last week was unheralded RB rookie DuJuan Harris from the practice squad. Harris’ bolt through the teeth of the Lions D form a TD helped carry the Packers to an important win and he may have raised a few eyebrows on the Packers sideline as to his potential.

Harris could turn out to be the ‘X’ factor in this game as there is precious little film on him to study. The heart of the Bears has been their defense, and it was the defense that was looking ferocious for a while. Julius Peppers is as consistent as a crooked politician in Chicago’s City Hall. CB Charles ‘Peanut’ Tillman was lighting up the field and opposing QB’s with 2 interceptions returned for TD’s and a handful of forced fumbles. But now the secondary is giving up yards and points in bunches again with CB Tim Jennings done for the year. Jennings’ play made Tillman’s rise possible. Without Jennings the Bears have become vulnerable to air attacks. Chicago’s cover 2 scheme is meant to squeeze a team into passing and stacking the secondary to cover the pass making Green Bay’s running game a prime factor in this one. With MLB and future hall of famer Brian Urlacher also sidelined most likely for the year with a hamstring injury the Bears D is not as imposing as it once seemed.

In the first meeting with the Packers in week #2 Chicago QB Jay Cutler made the juvenile mistake of wishing the Packers secondary “…good luck…” in trying to cover Chicago’s receivers. After his truly forgettable day that included enough sacks and picks to make Michael Vick appear an elite quarterback Cutler is now wishing he had just kept his yap shut. Cutler has been just this side of awful during the Bears skid and took a vicious high/ low hit from the Vikes Jared Allen last week that sent him to the showers early. Questions remain as to whether or not Cutler will play this week with neck and knee injuries and how effective he can be. Even Cutler knows he has been wretched against the Packers. Since Cutler blew into the Windy City he is 1 – 8 against Green Bay, tossing 9 TD’s against 16 picks for an ugly QB rating of 54.8 Ouch. Cutler was so banged around he took himself out of a playoff game during the Packers run to the Super Bowl in ’10.

On the other hand his WR Brandon Marshall seems to have little doubt about his own ability. Earlier this week the brash Bear said "I'm looking forward to one-on-one coverage. Hopefully, those guys, in a game like this, will go to their coach and say, 'Let me have him. I want Brandon Marshall. I want to stop Brandon Marshall.' Let's see what happens."

A quick look at the history books will show that the Packers more than held Marshall in check limiting him to but 2 catches for a whopping 24 yards. In the understatement of the year Marshall said "I didn't beat double and triple coverage or whatever they were throwing at me. I take it as a slap in my face when guys are talking about my lack of ability to do something against them when they have help all over the place."

Charles Woodson is a proud warrior who did not take kindly to Cutler’s brash boast. In his post-game interview Woodson clearly relished clamping down on Marshall as it grounded Cutler and the rest of the offense. Marshall and Cutler have enjoyed a terrific season together amassing 101 catches and 1,342 with 9 TD’s. Cutler’s 4 picks against the Packers did little to dispel any notion of Cutler’s confidence in his arm or receivers. Landing flat on his back 7 times again is something Cutler would really like to avoid on Sunday. The rest of the Packers defense may bristle at Marshall’s mouth.

It’s going to take more than brash talk from a cocky player with little to show from the first meeting to win this game. The Bears are wracked with injuries on both sides of the ball, so much so that Bears coach Lovie Smith cancelled the Wednesday practice of the Bears and substituted a mere walk through. With the new CBA and emphasis on player safety the NFL has only 1 padded full contact practice a week held on Wednesday’s for almost every team with the exceptions of bye weeks or odd scheduling times. Cancelling a practice is as common as the NFL cancelling a game – it just does not happen. But the Bears are that beat up.

The Bears offensive line will be severely tested once again as Clay Matthews looks to be back from a month long hamstring injury. Lining up across from the embattled Bears LT Jamarcus Webb should get Matthews salivating. Webb has had an awful year and his season can be summed up in a single act when a furious Cutler angrily shoved the 335 lb. Webb during the first matchup in Green Bay after Webb allowed another sack, one that hardly stands out among the 7 given up that day.

Which team’s pass rush can get to the quarterback will determine this game’s outcome. For a change the Packers are coming out of a game with no new injuries to report. Matthews is expected to play while WR Jordy Nelson will miss leaving Greg Jennings, James Jones and Randall Cobb to carry the mail.  With Urlacher out TE Jermichael Finley may have more space to run over the middle and should see more balls his way. Finley’s speed is too much for Lance Briggs and rookie OLB Shea McClellin to cover in the open field.

Green Bay rookie RB DuJuan Harris may see even more touches and how many he gets will be in proportion to how many yards he gains. Any rookie in McCarthy’s system has to earn his trust first. Harris has earned a shot. Harris is unlike Starks, Benson or Green in that he is a speedster that explodes through the smallest crack and can get into the next level in a hurry. On his first play against Detroit he took a quick toss, hit the corner, motored upfield and flattened a tackler along the way. Those are the types of plays that catch a coach’s eye. He showed enough last week to get another bite at the apple. Now he has to keep delivering. If he can be effective with Green it will be to the Bears detriment as it opens up the airwaves for Rodgers who is looking to bounce back from what was, for him, an off week last week against Detroit. Thankfully the Packers have much more than Rodgers to carry them.

With the rapid development of both Davon House and rookie Casey Hayward at CB the Packers have definitely gotten younger and arguably gotten faster and better in the secondary since the first game. Marshall is dreaming a fool’s dream if he believes McCarthy or Dom Capers will set his DB’s up in isolated one-on-one matchups. Marshall can bellyache all he likes but the reality is shutting down Marshall and keying then on Forte does in fact shut down the Bears offense.

The Packers defense is beginning to take shape and at the same time make big plays. Mike Daniels’ TD run off a Matthew Stafford fumble last week was game changer as it reversed the momentum the Lions were building. Sam Shields’ interception stopped another drive and WR Randall Cobb continues to dazzle as a playmaker. At this point Cobb leads the entire NFL in all-purpose yards (rushing/ receiving/ return yardage) with a combined 2,091 yards and is also chasing the NFL record held by Darren Sproles who has 2,696 yards. At his current pace Cobb would finish at 2,574 which would make him the 4^th highest in NFL history.

The NFL is a copycat league. The Texans squeaked past the Bears 13 – 6 but the score was secondary to how the Texans shut the Bears down. It was a formula repeated by the Niners, Seahawks and Vikings who held Chicago in check. Shutting down Marshall or at least limiting what he does is the beginning and flooding the porous left side of the Bears line is second. Marshall won’t be looking at single coverages very much in this one. And if teams are stout up the middle and can keep Forte from gashing off big chucks the Bears become toothless. It is a lot to ask of teams to try and keep Cutler and Marshall from hooking up. For all their accomplishments and self-assuredness neither Cutler nor Marshall has yet in his career to step up and deliver a big win at a crucial time.

For the Bears it is does not get any more critical. This game is simple for both teams – Green Bay wins and they take the NFC North again and have a shot at the #1 or 2 seed in the big dance while Chicago will be reeling and will have to win out against the Cards and Lions just to hope to grab a wild card slot. Chicago wins and it will be a dogfight to the end of the year. The Packers control their own destiny now. If they go 2 -1 over the last 3 games regardless of who deals them a loss the NFC North is theirs. But McCarthy and the rest of the Packers would love nothing more than to shove Marshall’s taunts right down his throat and end it right here, right now.

The animosity between these two teams is palpable and very real. No anger will be checked at the door and these two teams will tear into each other. If Marshall found the rough treatment he received in the first game disrespectful he is going to find a triple dose on his plate in this one. Cutler won’t find much relief either as Matthews will be in his grill all day.

Players, not words, make plays. Cutler found out the hard way what happens when his mouth challenged the Packers. There is something comically foolish in Marshall’s triple-dog-dare. When it’s over Marshall and Cutler can share a beer to go along with their “Maybe I shoulda just kept my big mouth closed…” conversation.

It’ll be close, but Marshall will come away with a different wish. He’ll wish he just kept quiet.

 

 GREEN BAY 24  

 

 

 Chicago 20