FILLING OUT THE DANCE CARD

How the Pack/ Vikes Game Affects the Playoff Picture

 

The plotlines that swirl around the finale of the 2012 NFL campaign when the Green Bay Packers face the Minnesota Vikings are chock full of suspense and a tale of strange bedfellows. It seems someone else has as much vested in the game as the Packers and the Vikings themselves.

Start in Green Bay. The Packers already have sewn up a playoff spot and the NFC North title. After beating up the Bears and mauling the hapless Titans last week the Packers are steaming into the playoffs hitting on all cylinders and peaking at just about the right time. A quick rundown of the plots, subplots and how much interest this game will draw in the sidebar as teams are jockeying for the last playoff spot.

WHAT’S AT STAKE: GREEN BAY

The Packers are far from just playing out the string and looking ahead. If they look ahead they can see a first round bye and a home field advantage if they come out with a win and they lock up the #2 seed. Mike McCarthy knows how to tweak his squad. They have been here before. Last year’s disappointment against the Giants is this year’s motivation. The great coaches at some point let the players’ own natural competitive sides take over. Over the course of a season, a season that includes OTA’s and mini-camps and walkthroughs as well as the mindless grind of training camp any coach’s words begin to lose their effectiveness. If a player isn’t motivated by the desire to compete or be successful his spot will be replaced pronto. McCarthy isn’t a Lombardi-esque whip-and-a-chair taskmaster; McCarthy prefers the relationship of professionals knowing their jobs and executing them at the highest levels at full speed.

WHAT’S AT STAKE: MINNSEOTA

The Vikings have their own singular vested interest and is doesn’t get any simpler than the following – win and you’re in. The advantage the Vikings have is threefold – they play at home, the Packers are already in and have less urgency, and the Vikes have all world RB Adrian Peterson. Peterson blew out his ACL last Christmas Eve and looked to be done for at least the majority of this season. Running backs on gimpy knees are a dime a dozen. But Peterson is anything but conventional. Peterson’s return has stunned not just the NFL but the entire sports world and has become one of the most compelling stories of the year. If it were not for Peyton Manning’s triumphant renaissance in Denver Peterson would be a mortal lock for Comeback Player of the Year. The NFL loves and markets its’ quarterbacks and the media-friendly Manning will get the nod after missing all of last year and leading the Broncos to the playoffs after neck surgery. AD is a scant 208 yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson’s record for yards gained in a season. While Packers to a man respect Peterson the last thing they want is for him to break the record at their expense. To be successful the Vikings will need more than just Peterson. The NFL is a quarterback’s league now and QB Christian Ponder is nowhere near the elite and he must now match throws with one of the NFL’s best in Aaron Rodgers. He will have to be more than his season long average rating for the Vikes to get into the dance.

WHO WILL BE WATCHING - WHAT’S AT STAKE:

CHICAGO BEARS – How bitterly ironic is that Da Bears fans have to become cheeseheads for a day. The Bears have played themselves almost completely out of the playoff picture and to have any hope at all their equation is simple – they must win AND Green Bay must also win. Minnesota and Chicago could be flip flops depending on how the game in Minnesota plays out. The Bears opened the first half smoking at 7 – 1, their lone loss at the hands of the Pack in week 2 and now in order to salvage what has been a horrendous second half that has seen them win 2 games they need the Packers help. Jay Cutler has been abysmal in the drought and Matt Forte has gone AWOL in the losses that have piled up. Since the Packers/ Vikings game has been moved to a more audience receptive time slot of a 4:25 kickoff we can hardly wait to see Soldier Field decked out in green and gold for the newest members on the bandwagon.

WHO WILL BE WATCHING - WHAT’S AT STAKE:

SAN FRANCISCO – The Niners are already in but are fading in the backstretch. San Fran broke so quickly from the gate they looked to lap the field. But as the season has ground on the 49ers are looking less intimidating. The Niners need a win and a Packers loss to jump back into the 2 seed slot. But their outlook is a bit more specious. Since benching QB Alex Smith in favor of the more athletic Colin Kaepernick the 49ers passing game has suffered. Kaepernick is still a rookie and while exciting he also plays like a rookie at times. The NFL is a passing game now and without Smith the Niners have slid backwards. Now WR Mario Manningham is done for the year with a knee injury and Michael Crabtree has been a monumental disappointment and Randy Moss is so far past his prime he is hardly worth mentioning. TE Vernon Davis is big game capable but since his breakout against New Orleans Davis has struggled to regain any dominance.

WHO WILL BE WATCHING - WHAT’S AT STAKE:

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS – It is almost inconceivable but the thieving, conniving, game-stealing Seahawks could hijack the #2 seed. How? With their tainted W against Green Bay securing them a playoff spot if the Pack loses to Minnesota and the 49ers lose to Arizona and the Hawks get by the Rams then Seattle (gulp!) becomes the #2 seed. As it is the Hawks will be no worse than the 5 seed. But a hyper jump to #2? Hey – stranger things have happened.

WHO WILL BE WATCHING - WHAT’S AT STAKE:

THE MESS IN THE NFC EAST – Okay, class – here is the short version. The Cowboys and Redskins are playing for the NFC East title and that game has been moved to prime time at 8:20 to reach the largest audience possible. While hardly a renewal of the old Cowboys and Indians duels of the 70’s and 80’s this game has an impact. RG3 – Redskin QB Robert Griffin III taking on the Tony Romo win-in-spite-of-themselves Cowboys in a winner take all match. That game is easy – whoever wins is in and the loser gets to pick up their golf clubs. This game is a death match.

But on the outside looking in with the faintest of chances are the defending Super Bowl champs in New York. The Giants have looked superb at times – they dismantled the Packers in their meeting this year – but have looked flawed and vulnerable inexplicably at others. The Giants were destroyed by Joe Flacco and the Ravens last week and barely looked willing to even compete. This is a how to defend a Super Bowl crown? The Giants have the most complex of equations and all the planets will need to line up for New York to even have a shot at defending their title. The G-Men need a W against the hapless, soon to fire Andy Reid Eagles, and then need an awful lot of voodoo to get in. A loss renders the point moot, but if New York grabs the win they will be parked in front of the NFL Network’s Red Zone coverage and need the Vikings AND the Bears AND the Cowboys to all lose, a tall order under even non-playoff circumstances. With Da Bears needing a W of their own and playing at the same time as New York as the Giants exit the field they will know whether or not the TV needs to be turned on. Desperate? Yeah, Eli and Co. are that desperate.

The central key in all these configurations will be played out in the Dome in Minneapolis. The Packers are rolling and are looking to keep their streak alive as they want to roar into the playoffs. As the injured key components get healthy and rejoin the lineup the extra week would serve the Pack well. To knock out the Vikings Aaron Rodgers will have to play a lot of defense.

Yes – Aaron Rodgers playing defense. But not in the traditional sense of the word.

Rodgers will not be lining up next to fellow pro Bowler Clay Matthews and looking to take on Peterson one on one. There’s an old saying that goes the best defense is a good offense. In this case keeping Peterson off the field is clearly to the Packers advantage and putting the ball in Ponder’s hand and forcing him to beat Green Bay with his arm is a decided tilt in the Pack’s direction.

Green Bay has a far more well-rounded and complete offense than Minnesota. Green Bay cannot match Minny in quality of running back – but then again no one can. But Green Bay can kill the clock and move the ball and put points on the board

One big knock that has been haunting the Packers for some time is their penchant for playing down to the level of their opponents and keeping them around. If last week’s blowout against Tennessee is a portent of things to come that may change. If Rodgers’ aerial assault can put points up on the board it forces Minnesota to match them point for point something they are not built to do. If Peterson runs wild the Vikes have as good a shot as anybody.

This game has much at stake for both teams. There are records in the abeyance and there is still the annoying cold streak of Mason Crosby. Rodgers would like to put up enough points to put Minnesota away early and force the pass from Ponder. When Green Bay does just that, the Giants will sullenly snap off their TV’s and get ready for a long, cold winter of asking the question “What went wrong” while the Bears will be singing the praises of Green Bay.

For their efforts the Pack gets a week off and steams into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the league at just the right time.

 

 

 GREEN BAY 27  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Minnesota  24