THE PREDICTIONS AND PREVIEWS

AS the 2012 season breaks the NFC North looks like a return to power for most of its member teams. Every team improved itself with the exception of Minnesota. The mortgage on their Brett Favre experiment has come due and it will take the Vikes eons to catch up to the Lions, Bears and Packers. Here’s how it all shakes out.

GREEN BAY PACKERS – Don’t expect another 15-1 season. Those types of season materialize out of nowhere and there is no way to plan for them. But how good this Packers team can be could be answered as quickly as week #4. Green Bay has a killer schedule and opens against early NFC favorite San Francisco follows up with Bears in week 2 and has New Orleans in week #4. There will be no time for the rookies upon whom Green Bay will be relying to get up to speed; they’ll need to hit the ground running.

Packers GM Ted Thompson spent much of his allowance on defense in the draft and the Pack is now hoping that newbies OLB Nick Perry, DE Jerel Worthy and CB Casey Hayward can fill the holes. That the Pack went 15-1 is more of a statement about their high octane offense than the Defense that ranked at or near the bottom in almost every major statistical category except turnovers and interceptions. The ball hawking conveniently masked the fact the Pack gave up yards by the boatloads and came thru with a pick when needed. Unfortunately that formula did not hold form against the Giants in the playoffs and now GB must come up with ways to pressure the QB.

B.J. Raji has come to camp in the best shape of his career. Former Dolphin 1^st rounder Philip Merling will try to add stability with Ryan Picket and holdover C.J. Wilson. Worthy and 4^th rounder Mike Daniels will see time, and Mike Neal has this year to deliver on his potential. Neal starts with a 4 game ban, and he must add something he has yet to provide. LB Nick Perry has to adjust from a hand in the dirt DE top upright LB opposite Clay Matthews, who now gets to move to his natural right side slot.  The hope is Perry becomes enough of a force to draw the double team away from CM3. On the inside the loss of Desmond Bishop will hurt, but 2^nd year dynamo D.J. Smith should be ready to fill the void. At the corners just about the time CB Tramon Williams shoulder heals upcoming 2^nd year man Davon House bangs his up. House was making a serious push for the starter’s spot when he went down. Hayward also impressed in camp. But the surprise starter at CB? The oft maligned Jarrett Bush. Charles Woodson will play a hybrid of positions between S , CB, and LB with no defined position. Morgan Burnett will need to be stout as newcomers Jerron MacMillian and M. D. Jennings will see a lot of time.

On the offense? Please. All that needs to be said is Rodgers, Jennings, Nelson, Cobb, Jones, Driver, Finley, Benson and a line that returns intact. If T.J. Lang can cut down his false starts and holds it could be one of GB’s best lines in recent history. Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers has all the tools and all the weapons at his disposal and the staggering array is the envy of the NFL. RB James Starks continued problem with injuries has necessitated the signing of RB Cedric Benson who may turn out to be more valuable in this offense than his stops in Chitown or Cincy, He won’t be needed to carry 300 times/ year; his job will be to, pound and keep a defense honest.

This could be a fun season in Titletown. The beast teams rise to meet challenges, and with 4 or 5 of the first 6 teams serious playoff contenders the Pack will answer how good they could be early.

GREEN BAY – 11 – 5 / 1^st Place

CHICAGO BEARS – The best news for the Bears is the worst news for their division rival Green Bay. Gone is the intellectually constipated QB killing offensive coordinator Mike Martz after what could only be described as a disastrous run in the Windy City. There is no emphasizing how much this little caveat will help the Bears. Martz’ ego got in the way of a Bears team that routinely self-imploded and played a large part in keeping QB Jay Cutler on his back and the Bears out of contention.

Cutler has a major league arm but had precious little to work with. Now once disgruntled RB Matt Forte has been locked up with the long term deal he was seeking and he’ll be joined in the backfield by Michael Bush (FA/ Raiders). While this move had some scratching their heads the addition of Bush will only help to lighten Forte’s already heavy work load. And with Martz gone the skies should now open up for Da Bears. In is former Bronco playmate Brandon Marshall and Cutler will try to recapture the early success both had while in Denver, and rookie WR Alshon Jeffery gives Cutler the ability to spread the ball around. The biggest question mark is on the line, a problem for the Bears last year. RT Gabe Carimi is back but has had limited playing time to date. Keeping Cutler intact will fall to the likes of J’Marcus Webb who allowed 14 sack last year. And he’s the starter.

On D MLB Brian Urlacher has undergone off season knee surgery and is questionable in his availability to start. His loss would be huge. But don’t cry for the Bears. 1^st round pick Shae McClellin will see time as the year progresses and he’ll fit right into the Bears LB happy scheme with Lance Briggs and Nick Roach. Julius Peppers hasn’t slowed down giving Da Bears a tough up front presence. The problems on D lie in the backfield. S Major Wright needs major improvements and the corners are a collection of “Huh? Who he??” type of players. Against the rest of the NFL the Bears will be just fine. In the pass happy NFC North, not so much. The Bears have enough to make the playoffs and it will be a dogfight with Green Bay all year for the NFC North crown.

CHICAGO – 11-5 – 2^nd Place

DETROIT LIONS – The Lions have made quantum leaps in improving their team. They have an All World talent in Megatron, WR Calvin Johnson. At 6’5” he can go up and over any CB in the game and is capable of 100+ catches and 15 TD’s, making the jobs of Defensive Coordinators in the NFL that much harder. The grittiness of QB Matthew Stafford adds to the Lions ability to score. Much is expected from 2^nd year man Titus Young to draw coverage away from Johnson (it won’t happen) or to find open areas to get the rock. TE’s Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler give Stafford plenty of targets. Having the time to hit them is a different matter. The Lions are just okay on the line and the backs will need to help out to keep Stafford, who has a long list of injuries, upright and healthy. But the Lions have serious problems at RB. Jahvid Best is not yet back from last season’s injury and neither is Mykell Leshoure. That leaves the running game in the hands of the erstwhile Kevin Smith. The Pack scored a coup by signing RB Cedric Benson out from under Detroit leaving many in Motown wondering of GM Martin Mayhew had fallen asleep at the switches.

Certainly the Lions have an impressive D, especially up front. Start with Ndamukong  Suh and go to Cliff Avril. The talent is there. But that’s the story of the Lions defense, beginning, middle, end. The LB corps is unimpressive and the DB’s are worse. Gone is promising S Aaron Berry due to off field discipline issues, and the real focus of the Lions now appears. The Lions have been their own worst enemy. Under firebrand coach Jim Schwartz the Lions have swagger, they have attitude, and they have an intimidating presence but far too often it disappears into unbridled stupidity. The Lions discipline or staggering lack thereof continues to plague the promise of this team.

Schwartz sets the tone with his college rah rah antics then acts disappointed when it spills over onto the field. Promising DT Nick Fairley was busted not once but twice in the off season and when a team sees more of its players in the police blotters than on the NFL leaderboards it’s going to have problems. The Lions were happy to make the playoffs last year. Then the big boys from Green Bay and New Orleans came to town and mopped the field with them. In their last 2 games the Lions surrendered 90 – ninety! – points and almost 1,200 yards and learned a painful lesson in trying to intimidate without backing up the bluster. Like most schoolyard bullies expect the Lions to shrink form the challenge and not rise to meet it. Until they get a handle on their heads off the field the Lions on the field take a step back this year.

DETROIT – 9 -7 / Out of Playoffs

MINNESOTA VIKINGS – And then there are the Vikings. It is difficult to find words about a team that is clearly staring up at the ceiling at those above them. How fast the Vikings have gone from contender to also-ran can be clocked in a Brett Favre news conference. Going all in with Favre has left the cupboards bare and with little hope beyond a high draft pick and hope some help comes soon.

 The heart and soul of the Vikes RB Adrian Peterson is coming back after blowing out a knee. How important Peterson is to the Vikings can’t even be quantified. There is precious little around him. 2^nd year QB Christian Ponder takes the reins and it will be up to injury prone Percy Harvin and former Bengal Jerome Simpson top haul the mail. Can they do it? 1^st round LT Matt Kalil is a huge improvement on what could be described charitably as a porous O Line. But there sure isn’t much around him. The Vikes felt good enough to let TE Visante Schiancoe go in favor of Kyle Rudolph.

Jared Allen is back, a year older and he has to be looking around and wondering what happed to the Vikings once formidable defense. The corners, Antoine Winfield and the oft-troubled Chris Cook have struggled and the LB’s have trouble in pass coverage. It will be a very long season in Minny. But hey – the good news is they won’t be known as the Los Angeles Vikings and should have a new home soon. Maybe by then the team will be better. Just not this year.

MINNESOTA – 5 – 11/ 4th Place

THE REST OF THE NFL:

NFC EAST –

*PHILADELPHIA – 11 -5 The Eagles D rises. The offense will flop late. It always does.

**NEW YORK – 10-6 Good  enough to get in
DALLAS – 9 -7 Close, but no cigar. Look for changes at years end.
WASHINGTON – 5 – 11. The RG3 era begins, but the price is stiff. Not much around to help him.

 NFC SOUTH –

*ATLANTA – 11- 5. Roddy White and Julio Jones pair with Matt Ryan and fly high.

NEW ORLEANS – 9 - 7 Just on the outside looking in. Losing Sean Payton costs the playoff hopes.
CAROLINA – 7- 9 Cam improves, the Panthers improve, but they’re still a work in progress
TAMPA BAY – 6 – 10. Under Greg Schiano they will get better – eventually.

 NFC WEST

*SAN FRANCISCO – 12 – 4 It’s 1998 all over again as GB and SF are the tops in the class.

SEATTLE – 8 – 8 Matt Flynn leaves GB to become a backup to Russell Wilson
ARIZONA – 8 -8 John Skelton, Larry Fitzgerald and…
ST.  LOUIS – 6 – 10 Scott Wells can’t cure the line. But, hey – he DID get $24 million.

 AFC EAST

*NEW ENGLAND 12 – 4 Of course they are there. The only certainties in life are death, taxes, and NE in the playoffs

BUFFALO – 10 – 6 Much improvement on D. Can they score enough?
NEW YORK – 7 – 9 Overrated and offensively challenged. When will Ryan and GM Tannenbaum come to blows?
MIAMI – 3 – 13 Hard Knocks gave them exposure. Joe Philbin has a lot of work to do.

 AFC NORTH

 

*CINCINNATI – 11 – 5 Andy Dalton and A. J. Green lead the revival.
**BALTIMORE – 10 – 6 Ray Lewis’ and Ed Reed’s last stand.
PITTSBURGH – 7 – 9 Injuries and age do them in early.
CLEVELAND – 5 – 11. Getting better but a long ways away.

AFC SOUTH

 

*HOUSTON  11 – 5 They are for real, even losing Mario Williams.
TENNESSEE – 10 – 6 The Lions of the AFC. Talented but troubled.
JACKSONVILLE – 6 – 10 Blaine Gabbert? Maybe future diva Justin Blackmon can help.
INDIANAPOLIS – 4 – 12  Luck is the real deal. But there isn’t much else left after the fire sale in Indy.

 

AFC WEST

*SAN DIEGO 11 – 5 Melvin Ingram helps the D and Rivers has to get ahold of his penchant for ill-timed picks

**DENVER – 10 – 6 Manning gets a last crack (or 2) at the brass ring. Tebow he isn’t, and the D is good.
KANSAS CITY – 8 – 8 No ability to stop points from being scored. Matt Cassell feels the heat.
OAKLAND – 7 – 9 The Bengals deal for Palmer keeps looking better and better.