NOT A 'MUST-WIN', BUT STILL A BIG GAME'

The 0-1 Packers against the 1-0 Bears in week 2. Sure, it’s a key divisional game. Yes, the Bears are a good team. Absolutely the Packers would like to see some positive results.

Just don’t call this one “must-win’.

Please.

It is way too early in the season to call anything a must win.

But Mike McCarthy knows that the Pack can’t allow the Bears or anyone else to get too far in front of them in the brutal NFC North. Every team is improved and only the Vikings are without a legit chance at winning the North. Chicago is fresh off a thumping of a moribund Indy team, a team that will be hard pressed to top 5 wins this year while GB had an early wakeup call from a new beast in the NFC San Francisco 30 -22 and find themselves staring up from the cellar of the NFC North after one week.

The Bears are sporting some new receivers and are free from former OC Mike Martz’ routine shoot-myself-in-the-foot style of play calling. Matt Forte is a known entity and is a beast at RB. Adding Michael Bush only made the Bears a better running team. Now with newly added problem child Brandon Marshall (WR trade from Miami) and rookie Alshon Jeffery QB Jay Cutler has been brazenly wishing the Packers DB’s “…good luck…” in covering Chicago’s wideouts. While Cutler did post a big game against Indy (21/ 35 – 333 yds/ 2 TD’s/ 1 INT) it is a safe bet Indy’s corners couldn’t cover a bed. The 41 points dropped also came by virtue of 3 Colt QB Andrew Luck’s 3 picks, a feat not likely to be duplicated by Aaron Rodgers.

Forte and Bush ran for a combined 122 yards, much better than the Packers Cedric Benson’s paltry 18 yards against what can only be called a carnivorous defense in SF. The Packers have legitimate concern with their running game, and until they establish one the very real prospect of their vaunted offense being rendered into the one dimensional category exists. Benson may have a chip on his shoulder when he returns to play against the team that took him 4^th overall in the draft 4 years ago.

The Packers will need to get something more out of their running game. The 49ers are only the best run D in the entire NFL, so the fact that Green Bay couldn’t run against them comes as no surprise. Frankly, no one runs o9n the 49ers. And yet somehow Green Bay managed to stay in the game against the vastly improved Niners. There is no reason for the Packers to hang their heads after the game, a game that saw the two best teams (by far) in creating turnovers last year combine to produce a scant 1 turnover, an Aaron Rodgers pass that set up San Fran’s winning TD. And the 49ers also sport a D that gave up an average of 14 points all last year and GB put up 22. San Fran also benefited mightily from an incredibly loose flag thrown when Clay Matthews caught Alex Smith from behind and brought him down just as Smith released a ball that fell incomplete. As Matthews landed on top of Smith he extended his arms out so as to not land with his full weight and drew an incomprehensible flag that extended the SF drive that resulted in a score. As early as it is it is still a game from which Green Bay can rebound.

The Bears will give the Pack that opportunity. While the Bears still play a swarming defense led by DE Julius Peppers and LB’s Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs their secondary will be tested against the pass catchers on the Pack’s side of the ball. Greg Jennings is still nursing a sore groin and may not see much time, but that hardly means Da Bears will get the night off. Jordy Nelson will draw much attention and in a memo to the rest of the NFL the Pack has sent notice that 2^nd year man Randall Cobb is going to be literally all over the field. His return skills are breath taking and he needs to bust only a few more to be mentioned in the same breath as the Bears Uber-Returner Devin Hester. But Mike McCarthy now has Cobb lining up in the slot, on the wing, wide out and in the backfield. So conscious of Cobb were the 49ers that James Jones was able to sneak thru and haul in a TD pass on a Cobb decoy in the flat. As the season progresses the wildcat may yet appear in Titletown featuring Cobb as the triggerman.

The Bears don’t have the DB’s that match up well with the fleet of receivers on the Packers side of the ball. Charles Tillman and D.J. Wright are not the type of corners that will keep Rodgers awake at night. Jordy Nelson should be able to find some room as will Jones, and Jermichael Finley needs to put together a stretch of drop-free games. Finley’s talent is only exceeded by his maddening penchant for dropping the ball in key situations. His 3^rd down drop against SF cost the Packers last week and are pure momentum killers. Paramount is the Packers offensive line playing better. In beating a dead horse playing against San Francisco almost any O Line could look pedestrian, and the Packers line needs a rebound game to restore some confidence. Alex Green may see some time at RB behind Benson if the Packers can open up some lanes.

Cutler may be a touch too cocky in wishing the Packs beleaguered DB’s good luck. Jarrett Bush struggled against Randy Moss but Sam Shields showed some better form in tackling than last year. The CB situation in Green Bay is hardly settled at this point. While Bush is a good tackler he still struggles in man coverage. Injured CB Davon House will probably see some time and don’t be surprised if rookie CB Casey Hayward doesn’t get a look sooner than later. Tramon Williams still has to get back to his All Pro status from 2 seasons ago, and Cutler may be letting his mouth and his ego get in front of his big arm. Against Cutler there is always the sense that he takes the field with a pick or 4 in his pocket, ready to be doled out.

The defense for the Packers is clearly a work in progress and that progress will be measured game by game. While Nick Perry did not flash he occupied enough space to allow Clay Matthews to get to SF QB Alex Smith 2 ½ times. The defense as a whole registered 4 sacks and is already showing an improvement from last year. Jerel Worthy at times struggled to keep up but also had some great stuffs in the middle of the line. The big matchup will be the Bears shaky line against the Packers D line. Giving up 186 yards in rushing to SF is not the type of game MM was hoping for. Stopping the run and forcing Cutler into finding Brandon Marshall and Jeffery is exactly what Dom Capers will try to do. Cutler may have inadvertently given the Pack some bulletin board material with his comments; now he has the prospect of Matthews combining against Jamarcus Webb who is not even in the same solar system as SF’s LT Joe Staley. Against Staley Matthews got to the QB. Yeah, good luck, Jay.

Packers coach Mike McCarthy demonstrates very subtly why he has very quietly become respected as one of the games great coaches and motivators. Knowing that the Packers would open on Sunday, play on Thursday and follow that with an almost 2 week layoff until the following Monday McCarthy scheduled practices at anything but routine times. He had the Packers practicing in the mornings, then in the evenings and in the afternoon. No detail seems to escape him and he specifically said he did this to get his team as prepared as he could for being uncomfortable. As the Pack has ascended into one of the marquee teams in the NFL the desire to trot them out in prime time supersedes the status quo. How much difference it makes remains to be seen.

The true measure of the upcoming Bears game will be won in the trenches for both teams – who can run and who can stop the run. The Bears have greater concerns than the Packers if they can’t; Green Bay has grown accustomed to not stopping the rush. DC Dom Capers and McCarthy are anxious for the tree to bear fruit, but it still too early to expect dividends from the overhauling of the D. The pass rush has improved, and the Packers D has to show progress in some areas, particularly in stopping the run.

In the end the Packers right the ship. Cutler will toss a few more picks and look less than stellar and Green Bay wins a hard fought battle. It isn’t a must win, it won’t be a pretty win, but it will be an important win.

 

    GREEN BAY  31    

 

 

 

 

 

            Chicago    17