This week’s edition is in loving memory of Barto L. Sweitzer 1934- 2015

FOR ALL THE MARBLES

Pack Hosts Vikes for NFC North Crown

It’s only appropriate that it should come down to this. The struggling Green Bay Packers and surging Minnesota Vikings are on a head on collision course with the NFC North crown at stake. In a winner take all matchup the NFL flexed its TV muscle and moved the game to the prime 8:30 slot Sunday night.

The last meeting in Minnesota in week 11 saw the Packers thoroughly dominate the Vikes and bottle up RB Adrian Peterson and stifle QB Teddy Bridgewater. The 30 – 13 win may have been the high water mark of the year as it helped to end a 3 game slide at the time. Now the Packers are in the driver’s seat for the North.

Last week’s debacle against Arizona underscored how far the Pack has fallen lately. Aaron Rodgers and the offense have been part of an ongoing national debate about what’s wrong with the Packers offense. Theories have ranged from how slow the receivers are, missing Jordy Nelson and Ty Montgomery to injuries to the line being undermanned to injury to Rodgers holding the ball too long and the outrageous Olivia Munn theory. Munn is the actress who is also starring as Arod’s love interest and if the rumors are accurate she has become Yoko Ono for Aaron and his magical right arm.

It’s all balderdash. Losing Nelson set off a domino effect that has manifested itself in the here and now of how differently teams are defending the Packers. In the early part of the season, the 6 – 0 juncture part of the season teams were defending a highly explosive offense whose receivers were considered among the league’s elite corps. Rodgers was pinpoint accurate and the Packers were among the Top 3 in discussion of the NFL’s best teams.

All that changed in Denver in week 8. The Broncos sport some of the league’s best defensive backs and Denver came out aggressive and challenged the Packer WR’s to beat man coverage. Under different circumstances this would have been akin to looking for the gas leak with a lit match but Denver knew something the rest of the league didn’t. The Packers pass catchers couldn’t beat man coverage. The more the Broncos jammed the wideouts the further the Packers fell behind. The 29 – 10 Denver win also opened the eyes of the rest of the NFL. 

Jam the Pack at the line. Dare them to beat you. Without Nelson’s speed and sideline ability the rest of the Packers are a group of good but not great receivers who don’t have a blazer among them. Teams began to move their coverages closer to the line of scrimmage and it began to clog the passing lanes. The result has been a field of congestion that has been busier than rush hour in Times Square. Opposing LB’s have stayed closer to the line as well and given less quarter in the running game. Eddie Lacy has been in and out of Mike McCarthy’s doghouse almost all season and save one big 124 yard game against Dallas has been throttled in the mass of humanity at the line of scrimmage. James Starks has been more than competent but has turned the ball over far too often. Finding an open man has been all but impossible and with the offensive line breaking down with injuries a second fatal flaw has been exposed.

The perceived depth at the offensive line has been much thinner than expected. When both tackles went out in the desert the loss of David Bahktiari and Bryan Bulaga was filled by Don Barclay and Lane Taylor who became turnstiles for the relentless cardinal pass rush. Just how leaky was the line? Try 8 sacks of Rodgers and 1 of backup Scott Tolzien. Mike McCarthy’s offense is predicated on the line doing its job without help. A different team would allow for a drop of talent and add a back or TE to help in picking up the rush but it has only been recently that help has been offered.

It would be disingenuous to suggest McCarthy reacted too late to add to the protection scheme. What is unmistakable is the fact there is a huge drop in talent in the backups. J.C. Tretter filled in admirably when C Corey Linsley went out but Taylor has borne an undo amount of pressure and with it criticism. Some of it is vastly unfair; if he had the talent of a Bryan Bulaga he’d be starting somewhere else but he is not up to the task of taking on a top flight defense the likes of which Arizona employs. Time and again Taylor was beaten to the outside on a speed rush and was also flattened by a bull rush. The resulting 9 sack day became painful to watch. McCarthy will almost certainly have to make adjustments to the protection packages of he wants to keep Rodgers healthy.

Lost in the 38 – 8 drubbing by Arizona is how well the defense has been playing. The offense literally gave 28 points away on turnovers and poor field position. The defense has more than done its part this year and has flourished while the offense has struggled. It didn’t help matters that both Sam Shields and B.J. Raji were out with concussions last week and Raji is expected to play but Shields is not. Clay Matthews has been performing well all year and he’s been rewarded with another Pro Bowl trip. The rookies – Damarious Randall and Quentin Rollins – have both been good enough soon enough to see a significant amount of playing time. Jake Ryan still has a tendency to over pursue and get caught out of position but his motor is unmistakable. When Sam Barrington comes back next year and Matthews can move back outside it could make for a very formidable defense into the future.

For right now the future is now. Minnesota thrashed the Odell Beckham-less Giants last week and is on a hot streak. Teddy Bridgewater and rookie WR Stefon Diggs are starting to develop a chemistry that could be a long term headache for the rest of the North. And all Peterson has done is to lead the league in rushing and he has a chip on his shoulder after being bottled up by the Pack in their previous hookup. Jerrick McKinnon provides an explosive change of pain the backfield and TE Kyle Rudolph has emerged as a more than competent target for Teddy B.

On defense the Vikings strength is in the LB position. Rookie Eric Kendricks and 2^nd year man Anthony Barr lead a team that doesn’t possess an imposing pass rush. The DB’s are a slightly above average lot and under different circumstances Aaron Rodgers would feast on their collective inexperience. Given the Pack‘s offense of late just completing a pass would be a step forward. And upon completing a pass if Davante Adams can just line up again without spiking the ball in celebration it would be a huge step forward.

One area of concern for the Vikings will be their ability to protect Bridgewater. Their offensive line has been suspect all year. If anyone can explain Matt Kahlil’s decline Vikings boss Mike Zimmer would love to hear it. Kahlil is a former first rounder whose play has steadily declined and as a result Bridgewater has been flushed more frequently than Manhattan’s commodes at halftime of a Super Bowl game. Zimmer’s blunt, no nonsense approach and caustic nature have helped to forge the young Vikings into serious contenders. If they are to be taken seriously they’ll have to take the next step and knock of the team that has held a grip on the North for the past 4 years.

Both teams have playoff spots locked up. Carolina and Arizona are playing for the #1 seed and should Carolina win they lock up the top spot. Arizona’s final meeting with Seattle has a direct impact on the Pack’s fortunes. If Green Bay wins they lock up the #4 spot and will face the #6 seed. If Seattle upsets Arizona the Vikings become the #6 seed which means the Pack and Vikes essentially get a same time/ same place do over the following week in the First Round. But only if the Seahawks somehow prevail over the Cards. If Green Bay wins and Seattle loses it sets up an almost inevitable, preordained playoff game when the Packers would face Seattle once again.

Should Minnesota carry the day and win on Sunday Green Bay would travel as the #5 seed to face the Redskins in DC, hardly a miserable fate for a loss. Just don’t plan on the Pack taking the lower road and tanking to get a more favorable matchup. Expect the Packers to bring the house on Sunday night. They all get tough from this point forward. A win Sunday night going into the playoffs is a great place to start.

GREEN BAY  27    

  Minnesota  24