Friday, January 16, 2015


RIGHT BACK TO WHERE WE STARTED FROM

The Season Ends Where it Began
as Pack Faces ‘Hawks for NFC Title

How fitting is it that the 2014-`15 NFL season ends up right where it began? The 2nd place Green Bay Packers (12-4), fresh off an impressive 26-21 controversial game that had the reversal call for the ages go right back into the belly of the beast to face the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks for the right to move onto Super Bowl XLIX. This will be the last Super Bowl to thankfully carry Roman numerals and the two best in the NFC will meet in the ear splitting loud house of CenturyLink Field in Seattle on Sunday.

While Seattle grabbed the first game there is little left of the two teams that even resembles who and what they were in the opener. They are as similar now to each other as Aaron Rodgers’ calf is to a herd of heifers. Gone are some of the players who even factored into the outcome and for both squads there are many new faces that have emerged throughout the season to play prominent roles. Both Seattle and Green Bay ranked # 1 and #2  have gone through similar early slumps and have been through the trial by fire period and both have withstood the inevitable low points of a season to come out the unquestioned top 2 in the NFC both finishing at 12 – 4. Seattle has the early advantage of a 7 -1 home record compared to the Pack’s so-so 4- 4 record. Seattle had the easiest of the two paths to reach the final easily dispatching the NFC South winner-by-default Carolina Panthers 31 – 17 and Green Bay made it after a thrilling, nail biting controversy ridden battle against # 3 Dallas last week 26 – 21.

Each team has a quick laundry list of what they’ll need to do to be successful. The Seahawks have that big, bad dominating defense while the Packers have a magnificent offense.  Each boasts a powerful workhorse of as running back that will be looking to carry the load. The Packers defense has improved quantum leaps since Clay Matthews moved inside and they will have to contend with QB Russell Wilson who is playing the best football of his young career. Each team has strengths and yet there are still exploitable weaknesses… if they can get to them.

Seattle unquestionably has the best defense overall in the league. The Legion of Boom has been a destructive force in its own right and has earned fear and respect throughout the league. Their offense doesn’t command quite as much respect but Wilson has become a slippery, elusive QB with a great head for wriggling out of harm’s way. For Green Bay they come in with one of the best – if not the best – offenses in the game. Aaron Rodgers collected his 2nd MVP Award for a magnificent season but is hampered by a calf tear that has slowed his mobility down considerably. The Packers defense, while improved, will have its work cut out for it in trying to contain the guy that makes the ‘Hawks go in Marshawn Lynch.

The Pack was dropped unceremoniously in opener by a count of 36 – 16 and created a month of handwringing until the boys in green and gold began to hit their stride. Seattle struggled early and is now peaking. Even though these two met early there is little, if any, empirical data that could be culled from that game that applies to this game. For all intents and purposes these are two very different teams now than what they were then.

In the opener Seattle was able to drive Green Bay nuts with WR Percy Harvin and the jet sweep. The Packers spent most of the game fruitlessly chasing Harvin as he ran wild outside while Lynch pounded inside. But Harvin will not be a factor since he and his locker room killing personality was shipped off to New York in the middle of the season. For the Packers much has been written about Rodgers avoiding CB Richard Sherman’s side of the field. Rodgers did not attempt to throw a single ball Sherman’s way which has given hope to Hawk followers that Rodgers is somehow scared to test him.

Looking at it a little closer in game 1 Sherman primarily drew then #3 WR Jarrett Boykin who spent a long, frustrating afternoon trying to shake Sherman, something he could not accomplish. Boykin has been since relegated to the bench and in his place rookie Davante Adams has more than stepped up, he has stepped in and become a difference maker in the Packers star studded arsenal. In game 1 Randall Cobb had yet to get untracked and Jordy Nelson drew most of the attention. Neither finished with more than 83 yards in receptions. Adams was the difference maker against Dallas; his 46 yard catch and run and fake on J.J. Wilcox was the biggest play of the game. And it was Adams, not Nelson and not Cobb that Rodgers was trusting with the ball down the homestretch. Adams did not fail the test either. His strength and clutch performance was the dagger to end any hope Dallas may have held.

And it has to be taken into account the key moments of that first game in Seattle – Rodgers being stripped of the ball for a game changing safety and LB Brad Jones getting both hands on a sure pick that was slapped away. Rodgers also had an unfortunate interception when the ball bounced off Nelson’s hands and was grabbed by Byron Maxwell that gave far too many points to the Hawks. For the record also factor in rookie Ha Ha Clinton-Dix who looked like a deer in the headlights rookie when he was undressed by WR Ricardo Lockette on his way to the end zone, a play that was so bad it was almost comical. The circumstances are not likely to be repeated, not now and not in a game of this magnitude. Marshawn Lynch has become a non-verbal threat to any team’s chances. He pounded the Packers for 110 yards and 5.5 yards/ carry avg. and has been the workhouse to whom Seattle hitches their offensive wagon. Given the troubles Green Bay’s defense has had in containing the run the Seahawks will look to unleash Beast Mode early and often. This will be a throwback game where each team will be coming with a powerful back capable of carrying his team a long way. Lynch has a proven body of work and Eddie Lacy has a bit of catching up to do. In game 1 Lacy was held to but 34 yards on 12 carries (2.8 yards/ carry) and was a non-factor.

As the season has worn on Lacy has come on. The Packers Mike McCarthy has a very creative offensive mind and there may be a few more screen passes thrown, especially if Seattle tries blitzing Rodgers and his ailing leg. The Hawks have been superb in bringing heat just 4 up front. Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril and Kevin Williams have been able to put pressure on the QB without needing to add extra help. For Green Bay to be successful the Packers offensive line will have to win the up-front battle. The longer Green Bay stays on the field the more it helps their shot. Lacy will not be in the witness protection program on Sunday. McCarthy understands how to beat a team from the inside out… by beating them at their strength and what they do best.

In the season finale Detroit came into Titletown ranked #1 defensively against the rush. So what did McCarthy do? He pounded Lacy and James Starks inside and out and ran the ball down the throats on the team that stopped everyone else. When a team is capable of beating another at the very thing they do best it is a demoralizing endeavor that will cause the opponent to wonder what just happened. Lacy and Lynch will hold the keys for their teams, both in yardage but more importantly time of possession. Neither team wants to hand the ball over and certainly not on a short field.

If the Packers are able to grab an early lead it could pay immediate dividends by taking Seattle’s famed 12th man out of the equation. Seattle will have a raucous fan base in CenturyLink Field that will be foaming at the mouth for this return to the NFC Title tile.

The Hawk defense is a daunting array of talent in the back end. Sherman is a game changer and he along with the thundering Kam Chancellor and equally hard hitting Earl Thomas will make every receiver work for every yard. It is not merely the pass coverage Seattle brings; their ability to not only separate the ball from the opponent it is the ability to separate the ball carrier from his senses. The key element is in Seattle’s ability to pressure Rodgers with just 4 up front. LB Bobby Wagner is more than capable of dropping into coverage and he also brings a whack to his game. It will be up to Green Bay’s wideouts to create their own space by being tougher and quicker off the ball. Rodgers was able in the second half last week to play more like Aaron Rodgers. In the first half he stepped lightly and gingerly on his bad wheel but by the second half he found he could slide just as well in the pocket as he usually does. His gift for being able to make tight, precision thrown off balance has never been greater or more useful than it has been lately. Under normal circumstances an injury of this type would all but cripple an ordinary player. Rodgers is no ordinary player. The pain is his leg is nothing compared to the size of the chip on his shoulder. He knows the Hawks see him as vulnerable. Rodgers has also made a career of silencing his doubters and shoving their words right back down their throats. The Hawks can’t afford to think Rodgers will be helpless. If anything this will make Rodgers that much more dangerous.

If Seattle has any appreciable weakness it is in their underappreciated receivers. While Doug Baldwin and Jerome Kearse are not members of ESPN’s highlight reel with Wilson delivering the ball they don’t need to be spectacular. Last week Kearse was well covered but Wilson somehow was able to drop the ball in the bucket that Kearse grabbed with one hand to make a huge play. The Packers defense seems susceptible to a player like Wilson who can run himself out of trouble and into big yardage gainers. Containing Wilson is the very reason Nick Perry and Datone Jones were drafted. The question is now in the payoff. Perry has quietly put together a very solid campaign. It was Perry last week who had a hand in 2 consecutive sacks of Tony Romo to squash Dallas’ attempt to rally against the Pack. The jury is still out on Jones; there would be no better time than now to see that tree bear fruit. Another former question mark Mike Neal’s play has been noticeably more stout of late. Getting bigger and rangier more athletic types was the goal. The Packers have seen enough of these new age, read option quarterbacks in the past few years to want to see many more come along. Free agent Julius Peppers was added as well to give the Pack more than a fighting chance against Seattle.

Being brutally honest although both teams have identical records Seattle appears to have more on paper on defense. History says that winning back to back Super Bowls is a thing of the past. Seattle looks primed for another shot at it and for Green Bay it is the deepest they’ve gone since there run in ’10 to the Lombardi Trophy. Seattle cannot let Rodgers get started or get loose. They will test his leg and his resolve. If Rodgers can withstand the heat, if the offensive line can open holes and keep Rodgers clean the Pack has a fighting chance. So much is being made of the first game and Rodgers’ calf, so much so that S Earl Thomas come out and said “I ain’t buying it (Rodgers calf injury).”

“I’m not buying into this leg issue,” Thomas said on Thursday. “I’m not buying into it. I saw him scramble close to the goal line on the Cowboys, so he’s not fooling me with that.” In spite of those that insist Rodgers didn’t look like Rodgers Thomas didn’t flinch. “I’m not falling into that,” Thomas said. “I’m on my own road regardless.”

 “We know he’s a little banged up but he looks just fine to me in that last game — he was making most of his throws, he didn’t scramble as much and get out of the pocket as he’s done in the past, but for the most part, he’s making all of his throws and he looks just fine,” linebacker K.J. Wright told reporters.  “So we’re going to treat him like he’s healthy and like he’s 100 percent.” Added safety Kam Chancellor:   “That’s the mentality you’ve got to have. . . .  You don’t want any surprises so just go in with that mentality, and you won’t be surprised.

Green Bay cannot turn the ball over or give Seattle good field position. It is a lot to ask but this is the playoffs. The old mantra serves well here. Ya wanna be the best then ya gotta beat the best. Simply put the Packers will need a flawless, near perfect performance to ouster the reigning champs. Nothing else will do.

Game one was nothing more than an extended version of the preseason for both teams whose regulars hadn’t seen much action. The table is set for the main course of the playoffs. Now it’s time to serve it up. We will break tradition and offer up TWO predictions of the score. This is if Green Bay can force some turnovers, not commit turnovers and if the Pack can play a perfect game. Otherwise...
 
 
 
 SEATTLE  31  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Green Bay 24  
 
 
 
 
 
 
But if the Packers can play a perfect game...
 

GREEN BAY  27
 
 
 
  Seattle 19 

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