RIGHT BACK TO WHERE
WE STARTED FROM
The Season Ends Where
it Began
as Pack Faces ‘Hawks for NFC Title
How fitting
is it that the 2014-`15 NFL season ends up right where it began? The 2nd
place Green Bay Packers (12-4), fresh off an impressive 26-21 controversial
game that had the reversal call for the ages go right back into the belly of the
beast to face the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks for the right
to move onto Super Bowl XLIX. This will be the last Super Bowl to thankfully
carry Roman numerals and the two best in the NFC will meet in the ear splitting
loud house of CenturyLink Field in Seattle on Sunday.
While
Seattle grabbed the first game there is little left of the two teams that even
resembles who and what they were in the opener. They are as similar now to each
other as Aaron Rodgers’ calf is to a
herd of heifers. Gone are some of the players who even factored into the
outcome and for both squads there are many new faces that have emerged
throughout the season to play prominent roles. Both Seattle and Green Bay
ranked # 1 and #2 have gone through
similar early slumps and have been through the trial by fire period and both
have withstood the inevitable low points of a season to come out the unquestioned
top 2 in the NFC both finishing at 12 – 4. Seattle has the early advantage of a
7 -1 home record compared to the Pack’s so-so 4- 4 record. Seattle had the
easiest of the two paths to reach the final easily dispatching the NFC South
winner-by-default Carolina Panthers 31 – 17 and Green Bay made it after a
thrilling, nail biting controversy ridden battle against # 3 Dallas last week
26 – 21.
Each team
has a quick laundry list of what they’ll need to do to be successful. The
Seahawks have that big, bad dominating defense while the Packers have a
magnificent offense. Each boasts a
powerful workhorse of as running back that will be looking to carry the load. The
Packers defense has improved quantum leaps since Clay Matthews moved inside and they will have to contend with QB Russell Wilson who is playing the
best football of his young career. Each team has strengths and yet there are
still exploitable weaknesses… if they can get to them.
Seattle
unquestionably has the best defense overall in the league. The Legion of Boom
has been a destructive force in its own right and has earned fear and respect throughout
the league. Their offense doesn’t command quite as much respect but Wilson has become a slippery, elusive
QB with a great head for wriggling out of harm’s way. For Green Bay they come
in with one of the best – if not the best – offenses in the game. Aaron Rodgers collected his 2nd
MVP Award for a magnificent season but is hampered by a calf tear that has
slowed his mobility down considerably. The Packers defense, while improved,
will have its work cut out for it in trying to contain the guy that makes the ‘Hawks
go in Marshawn Lynch.
The Pack was
dropped unceremoniously in opener by a count of 36 – 16 and created a month of handwringing
until the boys in green and gold began to hit their stride. Seattle struggled
early and is now peaking. Even though these two met early there is little, if
any, empirical data that could be culled from that game that applies to this
game. For all intents and purposes these are two very different teams now than
what they were then.
In the
opener Seattle was able to drive Green Bay nuts with WR Percy Harvin and the jet sweep. The Packers spent most of the
game fruitlessly chasing Harvin as
he ran wild outside while Lynch
pounded inside. But Harvin will not
be a factor since he and his locker room killing personality was shipped off to
New York in the middle of the season. For the Packers much has been written
about Rodgers avoiding CB Richard Sherman’s side of the field.
Rodgers did not attempt to throw a
single ball Sherman’s way which has
given hope to Hawk followers that Rodgers
is somehow scared to test him.
Looking at
it a little closer in game 1 Sherman
primarily drew then #3 WR Jarrett Boykin
who spent a long, frustrating afternoon trying to shake Sherman, something he could not accomplish. Boykin has been since relegated to the bench and in his place
rookie Davante Adams has more than
stepped up, he has stepped in and become a difference maker in the Packers star
studded arsenal. In game 1 Randall Cobb
had yet to get untracked and Jordy
Nelson drew most of the attention. Neither finished with more than 83 yards
in receptions. Adams was the
difference maker against Dallas; his 46 yard catch and run and fake on J.J. Wilcox was the biggest play of the
game. And it was Adams, not Nelson and not Cobb that Rodgers was
trusting with the ball down the homestretch. Adams did not fail the test either. His strength and clutch
performance was the dagger to end any hope Dallas may have held.
And it has
to be taken into account the key moments of that first game in Seattle – Rodgers being stripped of the ball for
a game changing safety and LB Brad Jones
getting both hands on a sure pick that was slapped away. Rodgers also had an unfortunate interception when the ball bounced
off Nelson’s hands and was grabbed
by Byron Maxwell that gave far too
many points to the Hawks. For the record also factor in rookie Ha Ha Clinton-Dix who looked like a
deer in the headlights rookie when he was undressed by WR Ricardo Lockette on his way to the end zone, a play that was so
bad it was almost comical. The circumstances are not likely to be repeated, not
now and not in a game of this magnitude. Marshawn
Lynch has become a non-verbal threat to any team’s chances. He pounded the
Packers for 110 yards and 5.5 yards/ carry avg. and has been the workhouse to
whom Seattle hitches their offensive wagon. Given the troubles Green Bay’s
defense has had in containing the run the Seahawks will look to unleash Beast
Mode early and often. This will be a throwback game where each team will be
coming with a powerful back capable of carrying his team a long way. Lynch has a proven body of work and Eddie Lacy has a bit of catching up to
do. In game 1 Lacy was held to but
34 yards on 12 carries (2.8 yards/ carry) and was a non-factor.
As the
season has worn on Lacy has come on.
The Packers Mike McCarthy has a very
creative offensive mind and there may be a few more screen passes thrown,
especially if Seattle tries blitzing Rodgers
and his ailing leg. The Hawks have been superb in bringing heat just 4 up
front. Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril and Kevin
Williams have been able to put pressure on the QB without needing to add
extra help. For Green Bay to be successful the Packers offensive line will have
to win the up-front battle. The longer Green Bay stays on the field the more it
helps their shot. Lacy will not be
in the witness protection program on Sunday. McCarthy understands how to beat a team from the inside out… by beating
them at their strength and what they do best.
In the
season finale Detroit came into Titletown ranked #1 defensively against the
rush. So what did McCarthy do? He pounded
Lacy and James Starks inside and out
and ran the ball down the throats on the team that stopped everyone else. When
a team is capable of beating another at the very thing they do best it is a demoralizing
endeavor that will cause the opponent to wonder what just happened. Lacy and Lynch will hold the keys for
their teams, both in yardage but more importantly time of possession. Neither
team wants to hand the ball over and certainly not on a short field.
If the
Packers are able to grab an early lead it could pay immediate dividends by
taking Seattle’s famed 12th man out of the equation. Seattle will
have a raucous fan base in CenturyLink Field that will be foaming at the mouth
for this return to the NFC Title tile.
The Hawk
defense is a daunting array of talent in the back end. Sherman is a game changer and he along with the thundering Kam Chancellor and equally hard hitting
Earl Thomas will make every receiver
work for every yard. It is not merely the pass coverage Seattle brings; their
ability to not only separate the ball from the opponent it is the ability to separate
the ball carrier from his senses. The key element is in Seattle’s ability to
pressure Rodgers with just 4 up front.
LB Bobby Wagner is more than capable
of dropping into coverage and he also brings a whack to his game. It will be up
to Green Bay’s wideouts to create their own space by being tougher and quicker
off the ball. Rodgers was able in
the second half last week to play more like Aaron Rodgers. In the first half he stepped lightly and gingerly on
his bad wheel but by the second half he found he could slide just as well in
the pocket as he usually does. His gift for being able to make tight, precision
thrown off balance has never been greater or more useful than it has been
lately. Under normal circumstances an injury of this type would all but cripple
an ordinary player. Rodgers is no
ordinary player. The pain is his leg is nothing compared to the size of the
chip on his shoulder. He knows the Hawks see him as vulnerable. Rodgers has
also made a career of silencing his doubters and shoving their words right back
down their throats. The Hawks can’t afford to think Rodgers will be helpless. If anything this will make Rodgers that much more dangerous.
If Seattle
has any appreciable weakness it is in their underappreciated receivers. While Doug Baldwin and Jerome Kearse are not
members of ESPN’s highlight reel with Wilson
delivering the ball they don’t need to be spectacular. Last week Kearse was well covered but Wilson somehow was able to drop the
ball in the bucket that Kearse
grabbed with one hand to make a huge play. The Packers defense seems
susceptible to a player like Wilson
who can run himself out of trouble and into big yardage gainers. Containing Wilson is the very reason Nick Perry and Datone Jones were
drafted. The question is now in the payoff.
Perry has quietly put together a very solid campaign. It was Perry last week who had a hand in 2
consecutive sacks of Tony Romo to
squash Dallas’ attempt to rally against the Pack. The jury is still out on Jones; there would be no better time
than now to see that tree bear fruit. Another former question mark Mike Neal’s play has been noticeably
more stout of late. Getting bigger and rangier more athletic types was the
goal. The Packers have seen enough of these new age, read option quarterbacks
in the past few years to want to see many more come along. Free agent Julius Peppers was added as well to
give the Pack more than a fighting chance against Seattle.
Being
brutally honest although both teams have identical records Seattle appears to
have more on paper on defense. History says that winning back to back Super
Bowls is a thing of the past. Seattle looks primed for another shot at it and for
Green Bay it is the deepest they’ve gone since there run in ’10 to the Lombardi
Trophy. Seattle cannot let Rodgers get
started or get loose. They will test his leg and his resolve. If Rodgers can
withstand the heat, if the offensive line can open holes and keep Rodgers clean the Pack has a fighting
chance. So much is being made of the first game and Rodgers’ calf, so much so that S
Earl Thomas come out and said “I ain’t buying it (Rodgers calf injury).”
“I’m not buying into this leg issue,” Thomas said on
Thursday. “I’m not buying into it. I saw him scramble close to the
goal line on the Cowboys, so he’s not fooling me with that.” In spite of those
that insist Rodgers didn’t look like
Rodgers Thomas didn’t flinch. “I’m
not falling into that,” Thomas said. “I’m on my own road regardless.”
“We know he’s a
little banged up but he looks just fine to me in that last game — he was making
most of his throws, he didn’t scramble as much and get out of the pocket as
he’s done in the past, but for the most part, he’s making all of his throws and
he looks just fine,” linebacker K.J. Wright told
reporters. “So we’re going to treat him like he’s healthy and like he’s
100 percent.” Added safety Kam
Chancellor: “That’s the mentality you’ve got to
have. . . . You don’t want any surprises so just go in with that mentality,
and you won’t be surprised.”
Green Bay
cannot turn the ball over or give Seattle good field position. It is a lot to
ask but this is the playoffs. The old mantra serves well here. Ya wanna be the
best then ya gotta beat the best. Simply put the Packers will need a flawless,
near perfect performance to ouster the reigning champs. Nothing else will do.
Game one was
nothing more than an extended version of the preseason for both teams whose regulars
hadn’t seen much action. The table is set for the main course of the playoffs.
Now it’s time to serve it up. We will break tradition and offer up TWO predictions
of the score. This is if Green Bay can force some turnovers, not commit turnovers and if the Pack can play a perfect game. Otherwise...
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