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Rested Packers Face Desperate Bears in Prime Time

The  bye week is done, some of the Packers have gotten healthy, the roster has been juggled a bit and Green Bay is coming off a spanking at the hands of Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints by a count of 44 – 23. The Pack returns on Sunday Night against a must-win team when the face the Chicago Bears in chilly Titletown.

The two squads are heading in polar opposite directions. Green Bay opened the season with a loss to Seattle and mailed in a paltry effort against Detroit to open a sluggish 1 – 2. Since then the Packers have gone 4 – 1 to scramble back into relevance. Chicago opened at 2 – 1 but have been in near total free fall since. Da Bears are reeling - New England embarrassed them 51- 23 before the break – and Chicago has lost 4 of their last 5, one courtesy of Green Bay that saw the Packers blow the game apart in a wild second half when Jay Cutler and Co. suddenly morphed into the Gang that Couldn’t Shoot Straight. At 3 – 5 and sitting dead last in the NFC North things couldn’t be much gloomier in the Windy City. In the midst of their most recent skid the Bears managed their lone win against the monumentally disappointing Atlanta Falcons.

Against New Orleans Aaron Rodgers caused Green Bay’s entire fan base, coaching staff, team and front office to gulp and collectively let out an “Uh oh” when he pulled up lame on a sprint out against the Saints. Rodgers was clearly not the same afterwards as Green Bay surrendered a ton of yards and a ton of points to New Orleans. Rodgers grabbed the back of his left leg and played gingerly on it the rest of the way. In spite of Rodgers running up the gut for a TD it was a tepid effort that was the result of New Orleans completely abandoning defensing Rodgers’ rushes.

As it turns out Rodgers hamstring will not join the over-scrutinized broken collarbone he suffered last year at the hands of Shae McClellin and Da Bears. Calling it “…just a tweak…” Rodgers has been the largest beneficiary of the time off. CB Sam Shields has missed a couple games along with S Morgan Burnett and DE Datone Jones. All are expected to play against Chicago on Sunday night. On player who will sadly not be in uniform is former first round pick LT Derrick Sherrod. Sherrod was released this week when C/OL J.C. Tretter became eligible to return from his pre-season knee injury. Sherrod had been making an effort to come back from a devastating broken leg from 2 years ago.

After spending all but two years on the IR list Sherrod put in the time and the work but was unable to regain anything close to the form and promise he once held. Filling in for Bryan Bulaga Sherrod looked considerably slower than he had before he went down. For the season Sherrod’s numbers weren’t pretty – he surrendered 3 sacks, 3 hurries and 2 QB hits on 140 snaps. Now Tretter becomes the literal ‘Next Man Up’ as his help may be desperately needed. He has lost the starting C job to Corey Linsley who has performed well but also had a few rookie deer-in-the-headlights rookie moments that have resulted in some less than pleasant Rodgers tongue lashings. Much like finding David Bahktiari last year out of necessity the Packers seem to have struck gold again with Linsley and Tretter should be a vast upgrade on coming off the bench.

Both Packer G’s – T.J. Lang and Josh Sitton – have been rehabbing injuries. Lang wrenched a knee and Sitton injured a toe in the blowout in the Bayou. Reserve OL Lane Taylor was overmatched early on in relief and both Sitton and Lang will be game day decisions. Mike McCarthy said of his guards “They (Sitton and Lang) are both capable of playing without practicing”. Both will go through workouts on Friday to see where they are in their rehab process.

The matchup against the Bears will be an offensive shootout. Rodgers currently leads the NFL in QB rating while Jay Cutler’s stock has fallen so far in the Windy City there are some looking for help from Josh McCown again. But McCown is gone to Tampa Bay and Cutler is being counted on to deliver against the team that has broken the hearts of Bears fans routinely in the past few years. Take the last two games against Chicago – earlier this season in week 4 it was close at halftime. But the Packers marched over Chicago in the 2^nd half to secure a 38-17 win. The epic collapse won’t be forgotten and if the Bears were looking for motivation they won’t have to look far. Last year’s epic, last minute 4^th down 48 yard TD from Rodgers to Randall Cobb added yet another epic collapse to a lifetime of epic collapses.

For all his ballyhoo Cutler has just never seemed to be able to consistently deliver for Chicago. His untimely picks have been a black eye on his career and there is no reason to believe Cutler won’t make a few more poor decisions and turn the ball over. The turning point in the last encounter occurred when Cutler threw to the right side but the only player even remotely near the ball was the Packers’ Sam Shields who gladly took the gift and ran off with it. Cutler’s completion % is above his average at 67.2%, a two out of three clip that is no embarrassment to compliment his 17 TD’s. It is the 8 INT’s that cannot be overlooked. And Cutler inexplicably seems to make the awful play when it matters most.

Matt Forte has become one of the best all-purpose backs in the NFL. He leads the Bears with 592 yards rushing and also leads the team in receptions and is 3^rd in yards passing with 58 and 490 respectively. Forte has shouldered the load with little help up front. The Bears also boast the twin towers at the WR position with Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jefferey as well as TE Martellus Bennett. It says something that Forte is the leading receiver among the group and is more indicting of Cutler.

The Packers run defense has hit the banana peel and has fallen right to the bottom of the league. For those looking for some type of silver lining the pass rush and pass defense has been markedly better. The D is currently 8^th in the NFL in TD’s allowed in the red zone. But no matter whatever arcane stats one can dredge up it cannot mask the fact that the Packers are not a good run defense team. They’re not even a bad run defense team. The numbers don’t lie and the numbers say they are an awful run D team.

All of this plays into Chicago’s strength. The question is not whether or not Forte will get the ball the question is how much he will be given the ball. Forte is going to get the ball. A lot. In the game earlier this year the Packers blew the tight game wide open on the opening drive of the 2^nd half and followed that with a pick and a score that opened up the type of cushion that took Chicago’s best weapon away. When Cutler is forced to abandon the run and rely on the pass and forced to match plays with Rodgers it is a battle he has not yet shown he can win. Keeping the ball out of Forte’s hands is all but impossible. Expect to see a Chicago game plan that will look to impose its running attack on Green Bay. The script for the Bears will read run, run, run, set up play action and look for a home run opportunity.

There’s nothing wrong with the script. The problem for Chicago is when the script needs an in game rewrite. The ball in Forte’s hands with the game on the line is a good thing. The same can’t be said of Cutler. The Packers inability to stop the rush or come anywhere near looking like they could stop the rush has become the Achilles Heel of the D. A small case could be made that with the number of injuries up to 1/3 of the starters have been out is not a panacea. DE Datone Jones has had a troublesome ankle that has not yet allowed him to play a full season in his 2 year career. He will be ready on Sunday as will S Morgan Burnett and CB Sam Shields. Against New Orleans there was plenty of ugly to go around. Ha Ha Clinton- Dix slid backward against Drew Brees but he wasn’t alone. Both S Micah Hyde and CB Davon House were beaten over the top routinely. Brees can make a defense look bad and thankfully the loss against the Saints only counts as 1 loss. The Bears best ally is to keep feeding Forte and keep Rodgers off the field.

Losses are going to happen in the NFL. It is the weekly fact of life. But the Packers have looked both explosively unstoppable and incredibly vulnerable. No one seems to be able to pin point the reasons. The interior of the DLine and LB’s have not played terribly but of late they have been manhandled at the point of attack and have not been able to maintain their gaps and, as McCarthy so eloquently put it, “…whip the man across for you…” This would be a great spot for the D to step it up.

This one will be the new NFL all offense all the time at the expense of the defense. The Bears are on their last legs of hope and need this win. Losing this game will all but eliminate the Bears from playoff contention, and even a win only keeps the flicker of hope alive. The Lions show no sign of slowing down and with Eddie Lacy beginning to bowl people over once again the Packers offense is rounding into top shape. There is still concern at the TE slot as Andrew Quarless has not taken the leap it was hoped he could and rookie TE Richard Rodgers is making slow headway.

For the record the name the team in the NFL with the best record in prime time games. If you said Green Bay you have just won the Golden Beer Award. Green Bay leads the NFL with a .750 winning % in prime time games. That is impressive. And with then game being held in Lambeau the Pack has the edge in this one. Of course Aaron Rodgers is that edge. It will be entertaining and the bathroom breaks will be few. Look for a passel of points. Wait for the Cutler miscue. And cover your ears around Bears fans as their season swirls the bowl yet again at the hands of the Packers.

 

 

 

 

 GREEN BAY 37  

 

 

 

 

 Chicago  23