BY THE NUMBERS

Pack’s Improving D Squares off against

Drew Brees in the Big Easy

Go figure the NFL these days. If anyone saw this coming someone would be paid off handsomely in Vegas. The recent monsters of the NFC Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers are in danger of not making the playoffs. Seattle trails NFC West Division leader Arizona by 2 full games – and we’re not even at the halfway point yet. The Hawks were stunned by the St. Louis Rams and looked hopelessly inept on a fake other-side-of-the-field punt return that went for a touchdown. The Niners appear as if any day Jim Harbaugh will be canned, quit, or just pack his bags for the NCAA and head off to Michigan.

The Eagles are somehow 4-2 and only the football gods know why. Maybe the biggest stunner is the league leading Dallas Cowboys. Weren’t the ‘Boys supposed to be wretched? That defense was going to be left floundering without Sean Lee. Jerry Jones passed on Johnny Football to take a lineman (Zach Martin) with Dallas’ first pick. And now they are reaping the benefits of some sound decision making.

Maybe the biggest head scratcher is the next opponent for the Green Bay Packers in New Orleans. The Saints are 2 – 4 and not winning now. The defense is a wretched shell of its’ former Bountygate past. The D hasn’t been able to stop anyone and Drew Brees is being hounded relentlessly behind a tissue thin offensive line. Brees still has swagger and bravado but the Saints are slipping. But here’s the kicker – at 2-4 they are nowhere near dead yet. “This (game with the Packers) is not a must-win situation” said Brees. The stark reality is the saints are only one game behind the Carolina Panthers and their lofty 3-3-1 record. While the game has a sense of urgency the Saints still have wiggle room and a margin for error.

The Pack is now flying high and is currently 4^th in scoring. Even a 7 point dud output against Detroit has down little to slow the Pack and Aaron Rodgers down. Since issuing his now famous and soon to be legendary R-E-L-A-X edict a few weeks ago only Peyton Manning has given Rodgers a run for his money. Rodgers tied an NFL record with Tom Brady and Manning last week with his 4th consecutive 3 TD game. Jordy Nelson has been complemented by an emerging Randall Cobb who is heating up after a very slow start.

Cobb was all but invisible in the first 3 games. Since then he has fired out like a rocket and has added some magnificent yards after catch numbers. He is also back returning punts and has obvious talent for the job makes it only a matter of time before he really breaks one off. After spotting Nelson an early lead Cobb has come on to post 8 TD’s, currently one off the pace of Antonio Gates who had the benefit of a big game on Thursday night. Nelson has put up 6 TDs of his own giving the Packers a fearsome resource of outlets for Rodgers. All Nelson has done is to quietly become the most reliable receiver for Rodgers. He is among the league leaders in catches, yards after the catch, total yards as well as the TD count. When Green Bay needs a big one Rodgers and Nelson have developed an intrinsic chemistry that looks as if they are sharing the same mind.

While the Packers overall offense is ranked in the middle of the pack in the NFL statistically the point production puts them at 4^th overall. At an average of 30.5 points/ game Green Bay is posting the kind of numbers that are turning games into laughers. When factoring a 7 point output against Detroit into the equation the offensive prowess of the Packer s cannot be denied. Eddie Lacy has yet to uncork himself and find the form that won him the Rookie of the Year Award last season. James Starks was merely an afterthought after Lacy broke out but Starks has become more than solid in his #2 role behind Lacy. Starks tweaked an ankle last week and has been limited in practice so he will remain a game time decision as to his availability.

The Packers defense has taken quite few shots for their run defense. In total yards the Packers rank dead assed last in yards allowed, the only team thus far in the NFL to surrender 4 digits rushing with 1035 rushing yards given up. Only Cleveland’s D has surrendered more average yards rushing/ game and at 147.9 yards/ game the Packers have to find other ways to become better on D. While damning the rushing numbers do not tell the whole story of the Pack’s defense.

Currently the Packers D is ranked 9^th in yards/ game passing and 5^th in completion % allowed at 59.6%. Only the New York Giants have picked off more passes with 11 INT’s than the Packers’ 10 picks. The D is tied at 6^th overall in giving up only a total of 9 TD’s allowed. And with Rodgers running the show it is no surprise that the Packers lead the NFL with a turnover differential of +10. While the run defense is the ugly eyesore everything else about the Packers defense is a solid Top 10 defense. In a passing league as the NFL has become the Packers are one of the big boys in stopping the pass.

Last week Dom Capers unveiled a never before seen alignment package that has been called the NASCAR package. The NASCAR is simple yet Green Bay may be the only team that could employ it effectively. Capers simply removes the defensive linemen and goes with 4 LB’s. At first blanch it sounds absurd. But when peeling the layers back the 4 deployed are Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Mike Neal and Nick Perry. All are listed as LB’s on the Packers roster for the speed and athleticism but here’s the kicker – with the exception of Matthews all have played the DE position both in the pros and college. By putting these four up front with no one’s hand in the dirt it becomes a guessing game from the offense as to who is coming and from where. It is a package specifically designed for 3^rd and long situations that an offense is forced to pass. Cam Newton struggled mightily against it last week, so much so that the Panthers held the ball for exactly 9 plays on their first 3 series last week. When Rodgers blew the game wide open halfway through the first quarter to 21-0 the rout was on.

Now the Saints coming not marching in but limping in. Drew Brees and Co. held a late lead against Detroit last week but couldn’t do the Packers a favor by closing them out. Brees threw an uncharacteristic interception. The Saints are still an imposing offensive team and rank well above the median in their numbers across the board. Their 2-4 record is incredibly deceptive. Mike McCarthy said of the Saints this week “They’re (New Orleans) much better than their record.”

New Orleans has had 3 losses by a total of 6 points and has only been waxed by Dallas by a 38-17 count. They opened the year losing a shocker in OT to Atlanta, then followed that up with a putrid performance against Cleveland that resulted in a 26-24 beating. Curiously their W’s have not come as they used to either. The Saints drubbed then hapless Vikings and needed OT to put away an awful Tampa Bay squad. And last week was a heartbreaking loss to Detroit when Brees threw an in ill-timed INT with only 3:20 remaining that gave the Lions the ball and life at the Saints’ 14 yard line.

But New Orleans defense shot themselves in the foot when safety Rafael Bush was flagged for pass interference on a 4^th down play when the Saints held off the Lions. The extra life extended Detroit’s drive that ended in a TD and kept the Lions tied atop the NFC North with the Pack.

New Orleans has some firepower. As long as Brees is under center they will have a fair shot and be a defensive matchup headache for opponents. Marcus Colston and Kenny Stills are Brees’ primary targets but promising rookie Brandin Cooks is beginning to climb the depth charts. As long as TE Jimmy Graham is on the field his presence can never be overlooked or ignored. The Saints’ Achilles Heel plays right into the Packers strength. New Orleans has had a difficult time with their run game. Far too often RB’s Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas and Khiry Thomas have been bottled up forcing New Orleans into becoming one dimensional and relying on Brees for everything.

If the Packers can contain the run and force the pass on Brees it becomes a mano a mano battle as to who is better. In a passing shootout however the Saints could be overmatched by Rodgers, a QB who throws an interception as frequently as Haley’s Comet appears. The Packers D is coming on and not only showing signs of life they look to be on the upswing.

 
 

If it is a passing battle the Packers have the advantage. And when Brees and Rodgers are on the field a passing battle can be expected. The bookies are telling everyone the over/ under on this game is out the window. It could be a big night for Brees.

But it will be a bigger night for Rodgers. And Nelson. And Cobb.

 

 

 

 

 

 

   GREEN BAY 37  

 

 

 

 

 

 

  New Orleans  23