NEVER TOO EARLY FOR AS SHOWDOWN

Packers Face Bears in Key Tilt

The NFL is a cold, hard, cruel, and unforgiving business. It is also a week in, week out drama of good news/ bad news for each team.

The Green Bay Packers have opened the campaign at 1 – 2, hardly what Mike McCarthy, Aaron Rodgers, or anyone else expected. The good news is the revamped defense is beginning to show signs of becoming the disruptive force McCarthy promised in the off season. Julius Peppers is settling into his new role as an OLB and is starting to play more comfortably and confidently. A man of Peppers experience may have found what is an ideal position for him and is also playing with his hand in the dirt as a DE in the Packers sometimes 4-3 front.

In the good news dept. the defense is playing well and has improved rapidly each week. Against Detroit Peppers had a decent afternoon recording a hat trick strip sack/ forced fumble/ and recovery on one play. He and Clay Matthews are looking like a good complementary pairing and the rest of the young D is also rounding into shape. Last year’s memory of zero picks by a safety was finally laid to rest when rookie Ha Ha Clinton-Dix recorded his first as a pro. Over the past 3 season the Packers defense has been under a microscope of scrutiny in spite of the dedication in the draft to address the issues. But when Peppers became a free agent Green Bay gladly scooped him up in an effort to change the defensive culture.

The change has begun to take hold. Sam Shields played up to his new, multi-year contract and all but shut down Calvin Johnson completely. RB Reggie Bush was help to 61 yards on the ground. The defense also forced 3 turnovers… but it still wasn’t enough to avoid a loss described by Randall Cobb as “…embarrassing…”

Then there’s the bad news dept. The big question circulating throughout the NFL is “What’s wrong with the Packers?” Most specifically it’s “What’s wrong with the Packers offense?” How can a team that boasts Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and Eddie Lacy suddenly become so vanilla in its attack?

Start with The Man himself. Rodgers’ throws have been, for him, uncharacteristically off this year. Packer fans have come to expect near perfect when it comes to Rodgers and his ability to put the ball in tight windows, which is why it comes as more of a shock when doesn’t hit those windows on a dime. Bears fans expect Jay Cutler to toss a few picks – he always does. Detroit has Matthew Stafford and a pinball offense but Stafford also has accuracy issues.

But not Rodgers. Rodgers has played his career without having the issue of accuracy being an issue. Rodgers’ issues coincide with what is becoming a glaring hole in the Packer offense. Green Bay used to sport the deepest stable of receivers in the NFL. But in this season after Jordy Nelson there has been a tremendous drop-off. Even Cobb has yet to distinguish himself yet. Cobb has playmaking ability but he acknowledges “I have to do a better job of getting open.”

Jarrett Boykin had emerged as a quality #3 wideout, so much so that James Jones was allowed to skate out to the Raiders. But Boykin has been barely noticeable. In the opener against the defensing Super Bowl champ Seahawks the talk was how Rodgers did not once attempt a throw at Richard Sherman’s side. The answer is simpler than simple – Boykin could not clear himself from Sherman to get open. Rodgers will deliver the ball to whoever is open and thus far Boykin has backslid. He may have fallen far enough for rookie Davante Adams to rise.

Adams has been targeted by Rodgers more frequently of late. He posted 5 catches against the Jets but has also had some drops that suspend absolute confidence. The loss of Jermichael Finley is also impacting the air attack. While Andrew Quarless has been serviceable he does not possess the ability to be a matchup nightmare the way Finley could. Quarless doesn’t have the speed – or the hands – to be a seam splitting over-the-middle- threat. McCarthy loves the tight end position in his offense but no one has jumped up to show enough to inspire confidence.

Rodgers inaccuracy is compounded by the offensive line playing at a subpar level. The Packers playbook was tailor made to beat Detroit. The Lions were forced to add help to their depleted secondary last week. The Packers came in knowing that and had a game plan designed to put pressure on that corps and exploit their talents.

It never came to fruition. The plan was simple enough – pound Eddie Lacy inside and force Detroit to move men up to plug the holes. Then Rodgers could go over the top to anyone open and there should have been plenty. Should have been.

It never came to fruition. The Lions clamped down the Packers running game and stuffed Lacy repeatedly with just a 4 man rush. When Rodgers did try to throw he was seeing double and triple coverages on his receivers and tried to buy time with his legs. One of Rodgers admitted faults is holding onto the ball too long. No doubt even the best QB in the game is not above criticism and McCarthy and offensive coordinator Tom Clements will be pounding that home in preparation for the Bears.

While Rodgers will hear about getting rid of it sooner Lacy will be hearing about ball security. His early fumble that gave the Lions an easy touchdown are the type of mistakes that land a talented back on the bench. When Lacy was dropped for a safety in the end zone he was involved in enough points to give the Lions a win. Ouch. The offensive line needs a gut check on top of it all. The loss of Bryan Bulaga has impacted the line but no team should be so reliant on a single member of the line that losing just one leaves it vulnerable.

Now limping into Chicago they face a Bears team with a completely different defensive look from last year. Peppers jokes that “John Kuhn cost me my job (in Chicago)” referencing the now famous cut block Kuhn threw in last year’s finale that made the Rodgers to Cobb end of game 4^th down improbability a reality. Jared Allen was imported from Minnesota and has looked like a Bear thus far. CB Charles ‘Peanut’ Tillman is lost for the season but rookie CB Kyle Fuller is now running away with the rookie of the year award with 3 INT’s already. Fuller has great field vision and hands and the loss of Tillman has been eased by his emergence.

Shae McClellin – the guy who planted Rodgers on his shoulder and sent him to the bench last year – is making the same type of move Peppers has in moving from DE to OLB. His results are at an incomplete level but he is still an imposing defender.

The Bears are led by Cutler and the question is will Cutler be Cutler and toss some game-altering interceptions? Head Coach Marc Trestman has been a stabilizing force and hopes he doesn’t. Matt Forte is still quite a load in the Bears backfield and now 2^nd year man Alshon Jeffery has emerged to truly compliment Brandon Marshall in giving the Bears twin terrors on the outside.

It took awhile for the Bears to dispatch the Jets on Monday night but at 2-1 this game has ominous significance even this early in the season. Don’t call it a must-win game though. But a loss will most likely mean the Pack will have to lower their sights to securing a Wild Card berth. The NFL’s decision to have these early inter-division games has placed a greater emphasis on the importance of the early season games.

The importance and necessity of the preseason and 4 contests has been greatly devalued in the new

CBA/ injury conscious NFL. The smart coaches do not put their starters at risk in a game that means absolutely nothing. More and more coaches are treating the pre-season as talent evaluation tools while the starters use the first 2 or 3 games of the regular season to sharpen their edges. Under the new CBA coaches have a limited number of contact practices to utilize throughout the year – 16 in all. And if they have been used early, well, that’s life in the new NFL.

The rest of the NFC North sheds no tears for the plight of the Pack. In some quarters there is enjoyment in seeing the reigning divisional champs struggle. But this Packers offense is far too talented and far too proud to play this poorly for much longer. McCarthy may shake things up a bit by juggling his game day lineup. Rookie WR Jeff Janis may suit up in place of the injured Jarrett Boykin. If TE Brandon Bostick is healthy enough he and rookie TE Richard Rodgers may also see the field.

The Packers need their stars to play like stars. Cobb needs to get untracked. Lacy desperately needs to put in a game as he did a season ago. There are red faces in Titletown and there is a sense of controlled urgency. Rodgers made a radio appearance and responded to some of the more fanatical ramblings of panic by responding “Relax. It’s a long season.”

The season could be made much longer with another loss.

The Bears will be ready and will look to knock the Pack out. Lacy will finally have his impact game back and when that happens Rodgers will have his choice of targets. If Lacy posts 100+ yards the Pack will get back on track and back to where they once belonged. That’s the game plan. If it works, look out.

And conversely if it fails, look out.

 

 

 GREEN BAY 24  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Chicago  17