INTO A GIANT HOLE

Offense Struggles, Defense Sputters in Loss to NY

With every week that passes with Aaron Rodgers on the bench with a broken collarbone opportunities for the Packers to make the playoffs dwindle. After a third straight defeat at the hands of the New York Giants in the Meadowlands the Packers are clearly struggling and not just on offense.

It was not that long ago that everything about the Packers was pointed in the right direction. While it is at least understandable that the offense would suffer in Rodgers’ absence more maddening is where the defense has gone. At last check Rodgers played on the offensive side of the ball so his loss should not have impacted the defense as much as it has.

Scott Tolzien was a game competitor against the Giants and showed he has an NFL arm, but his 3 interceptions were back-breaking killers. As then Packers closed to within 7 points after a long Tolzien completion to James Jones that was followed up by Eddie Lacy banging it in from the 4 yard line the Packers defense finally rose to the occasion.

On the Giants next possession 2 sacks put New York deep in a hole and forced a three and out.

Momentum had swung in the defenses’ stand. But on the first offensive play Tolzien Tried to throw a swing pass to Andrew Quarless and Jason Pierre-Paul snagged it at the top of his leap and promptly took it in for the TD that essentially sunk the Pack’s hopes of pulling one out of the fire.

This loss following losses to the Eagles and Bears have a mighty impact on Green Bay and any post season aspirations they might have. The Wild Card slot is looking bleaker every day. With Carolina suddenly red hot and then 49ers at 6-4 the chances at a Wild Card have become long shots at best. The Packers’ hopes of weathering the storm and getting into the playoffs come down to the most simple of formulas.

Win the division.

At 5-5 the Packers are 1 game behind the Lions and Bears and squandered the opportunity to get back into a first place tie. Detroit did its part by losing to Pittsburgh but Chicago jumped up to first place with a win over Baltimore leaving the Pack 1 game back in the hunt. At 5-5 the Pack’s shot at a Wild Card do not look good at this point. The NFC East is a win-by-attrition division and 8-8 could conceivably win it there. The Seahawks are running away from everyone except New Orleans at 10 -1 while the Saints are 8-2. Carolina sports a 7-3 record after upsetting the Pats on Monday night and should soon be shedding the phrase “surprising” before their team name. At 6-4 San Francisco has been a huge disappointment but they still hold the hammer in the Wild Card race.

The Packers have no advantage over any potential Wild Card suitor. The Niners, Eagles and now Giants all have the tie breaker trump card over Green Bay, so for the Pack to keep on playing it is going to have to be via winning the division outright. It is a scenario that could well happen, and it all begins in earnest on Sunday at home against Minnesota.

The fact that the 3 losses could have just as easily been W’s is not lost on the Pack or Mike

McCarthy. Tolzien is doing the best he can but his best is nowhere near good enough. In New York Tolzien was 24/ 34 for 339 yards, but the most telling stat is 0 TD’s and 3 picks. In his only 2 appearances he has thrown 5 interceptions. That’s a seasons’ worth of picks for Rodgers, one of the most accurate passers in the history of the NFL. But McCarthy isn’t ready to abandon Tolzien quit yet. When asked about Tolzien McCarthy jumped to his rookie QB’s defense by saying “Scott (Tolzien) made all the big plays we called. He didn’t miss any of them”. True enough. Tolzien hit Jones and Jarrett Boykin on well thrown long balls as well as hitting Jordy Nelson twice. Andrew Quarless, whose one-handed catch and run will be part of his permanent highlight reel, was also an offensive target.

The biggest change to the Giants was the addition of LB Jon Beason acquired in a trade from Carolina. Beason had a key interception when Tolzien lost him in the coverage and Beason has also helped to shore up New York’s sagging run defense. Since Beason’s arrival New York has had a 4 game winning streak and not so coincidentally has given up a paltry 11.8 points/ game. As Pierre-Paul rounds back into shape after in juries of his own the Giants D kept Lacy in check for the majority of the game. Tom Coughlin’s game plan was simple enough – shut down Lacy and make Tolzien beat you. And shut down Lacy they did giving up only 27 yard to the Pack’s bruising rookie for a dismal 1.9 yards/ carry average. That put the ball in the hands of and the game on the shoulders of Scott Tolzien.

Tolzien simply could not get the job done.

Eli Manning was less than stellar as he was picked off again, this time by Tramon Williams who had one of his best games in recent memory. Sam Shields was a game day scratch with a hamstring injury and Williams drew the #1 assignment. Losing Shields hurt the Packers defensively as they continue to give up far too many big plays against the pass.

But the Packers defense has slowly but most certainly regressed. “We’re getting the pressure” said

defensive coordinator Dom Capers. “We’re where we want to be (with regards to sacks)”. The Pack ranks 8^th overall in sacks this season. Mike Daniels has been steadily improving and the play of Mike Neal and rookie Datone Jones is also on the uptick.

But when it comes to down and distance and 3^rd down stands the Packers have maddeningly been woeful. About the time Rodgers went out is about the same time the D started to falter. Coincidence? Maybe not. One thing Aaron Rodgers does for his defense is to give them a cushion, a margin for error. Without him there is no margin whatsoever. The defense’s inexplicable ability to generate turnovers this year is becoming more obvious every week. Yes, Williams had a pick. But as poorly as Manning has been throwing the ball this year almost everyone has had a pick against Manning this year.

The linebacking corps has been decimated by injury and inconsistencies. A.J. Hawk continues to be solid but seldom spectacular. Without Matthews (broken thumb) and his running mate Nick Perry (broken foot) the outside rush has been MIA. The interior has been manned by the likes of Jamari Lattimore and Nate Palmer. The G-Men used a bruising running game to pick up key third downs to extend drives and keep the Packers offense on the bench.

Most disturbing in the defensive trends are the game ending, clock killing drives the Packers seem unable to stop. Against New York there was no such need as the Giants held the lead from start to finish. Tolzien has shown he can throw, but his red zone efficiency has mirrored that of the Packers all year, Rodgers included. The Pack has not punched it in enough when golden opportunities arise. Lost in the loss is Mason Crosby’s booming field goal of 57 yards, a kick that had more yards in it than needed. That may come back into play down the road, especially if the Packers can stay in the hunt. Crosby’s kick gives McCarthy that much more confidence in sending him out again. One area of concern in the special teams department is kickoff return average. The Packers are at the very bottom of the NFL and Micah Hyde did not advance a return beyond the 20 on 3 separate kickoffs.

The Giants are far from ready to roll over. In Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks Manning still has enough in the arsenal to strike fear into defender hearts. Manning’s 26 yard TD to Reuben Randle opened the Giants scoring and kept the Packers at bay throughout the first half and Manning did enough to keep the Packers from seriously threatening the lead.

Now it comes down to a simple equation. The Packers must win their remaining 3 games in the division. Period. One loss is one loss too much. At one game back the next 2 games are against Minnesota at home and then Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. It will be Tolzien once again against the Vikings. Call it a must win, and the Vikings would love nothing more than to send Green Bay packing for the year. The Vikes are in the midst of a horrendous season and even the acquisition of Greg Jennings hasn’t been enough to keep Minnesota from being laughable.

A Viking win would give the Vikings plenty to laugh about on Sunday.

As the teams hit the turn and start heading for home it is 2010 all over again. The Pack need to run

the table in the division and have few throwaway games left on the schedule. Tolzien has an arm. Now he has to find the end zone. And he also has to cut down on the picks. The Detroit game will take care of itself; the Packers are making a huge mistake in peeking ahead to that matchup. Whether or not Rodgers is ready is irrelevant. The Packers need wins and they need them now. As Mike McCarthy has said repeatedly throughout his tenure in Green Bay their most important game is the one they play this week.

Truer words were ne’er spoken.