HOW THEY’LL FINISH

Predictions For the 2013-14 Season

 

As the NFL season is now just around the corner we take a good look at the NFL landscape. In our annual predictions there are a few surprises in teams on the rise and some faltering that are no shock at all.

We’ll start in the NFC North –

GREEN BAY PACKERS – There is great cause for hope and optimism in the land of Cheese and Packers. Even after two straight disappointing playoff appearances the Pack has the best record in football in the NFC over the past 3 years. But the playoff ousters have been telling. Outmuscled by the Giants in ‘11’. Run into the ground by Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers in ’12. Exempting the charmed season that brought the Lombardi Trophy back to Titletown in ’10 the Pack gave up enough yards in ’09 against Arizona to fill 3 stat books. With 1 Super Bowl title in the mix it makes digesting how the Packers lost a bit more tolerable.

But one common thread that runs through the last 4 playoff appearances has been the lack of any semblance of a ground game. The exception to that is the surprise of James Starks’ sturdy play during the Super Bowl run. But injuries have stuck Starks in molasses since. Mike McCarthy wants his team to be physical. He wants to run the ball. He wants pounders, thumpers, and quick of foot backs that can see the hole, hit the hole, explode through the hole and then knock a linebacker backwards for another 4 yards.

McCarthy has not had that luxury.

On a team loaded with offensive talent a lack of a running game hardly kept the Pack from

piling up the W’s. All World QB Aaron Rodgers ought to get a huge contract endorsing Maybelline be has done an awful lot to cover up many of the Pack’s blemishes. With his stable of wideouts – Jordy Nelson, James Jones and the next NFL superstar Randall Cobb to go along with Jermichael Finley Arod has the choice and ability of hitting whoever is open.

That’s a formula that has worked over the regular season. The playoffs – not so much.

With no real running game good opposing defenses – like New York’s in ’11 and San Fran’s in ’12 – ignored the run altogether challenged Rodgers to beat him alone. A dicey move but when a team can put a lot of talent on the field they can put a lot of heat on even the best in the business. The fierce pass rushes kept Rodgers from having enough time to go long and deep and with no run defenses dropped into Cover 2 formations rushing 3 or 4 and keeping 7 or 8 back. That’s a lot of bodies to throw around.

It may be different in Green Bay now. Running the ball and stopping the run have been the consistent theme of the off season. DE Datone Jones was taken in the first round and with his freakish athletic ability he will contribute immediately. Add the return of OLB and 1^st round pick of ’12 Nick Perry and the Packers may ratchet up the D.

But the big new was the selection of RB Eddie Lacy in the 2^nd round. Lacy’s stock fell due to a toe fusion surgery he had after Alabama’s season was over and he missed the NFL Rookie Combine with a hamstring injury. Too much risk was the tag slapped on Lacy. LeVeon Bell of Wisconsin was taken ahead of Lacy in the draft.

Ted Thompson may have been blessed with his 2^nd stroke of great fortune in his tenure. Lacy’s fall is eerily similar to Rodgers’ slide in his draft and also reminiscent of Adrian Peterson’s injuries coming out of Oklahoma in his draft in ’07 with the likes of Jamarcus Russell, Levi Brown and LaRon Landry selected ahead of him. Lacy’s running style looks to be a combination of Jerome Bettis and Peterson. While it is far too early to compare Lacy to the otherworldly Peterson Lacy is a bull with nimble feet, good hands, fluid hips and can turn the corner as well as flatten an opponent. If Lacy can provide even the threat of a run the airwaves should open up before Rodgers. No longer will opposing D’s be able to ignore the Packers running game.

Injuries have also impacted the Packers yet again when RB DuJuan Harris and LT Bryan

Bulaga both were lost for the season to knee injuries. McCarthy has plugged rookie David Bahktiari into Bulaga’s spot and is rubbing his lucky rabbit’s foot that the kid can keep Rodgers clean. Harris’ loss in the backfield makes room for rookie 4^th rounder Jonathon Franklin from UCLA. Franklin gave some hope of a Thunder and Lightning duo with Lacy but has looked more like Thunder and an Intermittent Drizzle and, at times, like a genuine rookie in camp and not the RB answer MM was looking for. One potential player to fill that role could very well be Starks, who is looking more and more like a viable pass catching option out of the backfield. Holy Ahman Green Batman!! Is that a screen pass?

There will be some bumps, booboos, and mistakes along the way to be sure. But as the young Packers come along the vets will see them through. The NFC North is back to its’ black and blue roots, but the Green and Gold should come out on top again.

GREEN BAY – 10 -6/ 1^st Place

MINNESOTA VIKINGS – Welcome to Green Bay West folks. If you’ll look over there you’ll see the LaBrea Tar Pits of the NFL. Yes, that spot is where the Humpty Dome once stood, but it has since become extinct. The Mall of America Stadium has evolved to take its place and it still inexplicably holds an appeal for aging Packers who are drawn to its doors to have their careers die. Over the years many of Green Bay’s finest have come here to slowly sink into the morass of obscurity. The Darren Sharperaptor used to roam the defensive backfield, as did Ryan Shortwellasaus, who kicked until his leg flew off and landed back in Green Bay. We have even seen the likes of the most fierce of all the dinosaurs when the Brettyrrnosaurus Farverex was a fierce tyrant in his day, but when his powerful mouth and bite overdid his small brain he, too, saw his extinction. There have even been other dinosaurs who have managed to flourish in this cold, lifeless, championship barren wasteland. The Jaredydactoyl Allenytops is still swooping these parts and still can generate fear.

Occasionally these dinosaurs can rise to be devastating, but as age and time catches up their evolution and demise is all that awaits them.

But we also have had another seasonal migration from Green Bay this year. Greg

Jenningstegosarus Minimus and the Desmond Brontosaurishop have now come to have the wasteland consume them in anonymity. The Jenningstegosaurus Minimus has been bellowing loud enough lately to be heard back in Green Bay. The Jennigsstegosuarus is hoping to find enough to survive here but when the food source is the lowly Christian Ponderpus he too will likely meet an untimely end. The only hope the Vikings have is to continue to hide behind the lightning swiftness of their Adrianus Petersonvelociraptor. Swift, cunning and extremely deadly the Petersonvelociraptor is capable of defeating his opponents by himself. But the Petersonvelociraptor is vulnerable to attacks from the air and even with all his power the Petersonvelociraptor cannot hold off attacks Lions and Bears and Falcons and Giants and Packers. The Petersonvelociraptor is capable of sustaining a long fight, especially under pressure. However if he is cornered and his fellow dinosaurs arrive too slowly to help it will spell yet another cold, cruel, relentlessly unforgiving winter in isolation.

MINNESOTA – 9 – 7/ 2^nd Place/ Out of Playoffs

CHICAGO BEARS - The worst thing to happen to the Packers in the offseason was the Bears decision to can longtime Head Coach Lovie Smith. When Smith arrived he brazenly proclaimed his first priority was to beat the Green Bay Packers. Harumph. That didn’t go as planned, so Lovie went instead.

Now incomes Marc Trestman, the innovative coach from… the Canadian Football League. Oh. THIS must be a huge step up for Da Bears. Trestman comes in being known as a quarterback-friendly coach. But he comes into a coach-unfriendly quarterback situation.

Jay Cutler is still at the helm and his penchant for picks at the worst possible moment may drive Trestman back across the border. Cutler has a pretty good fastball but has never quite lived up to his potential. Cutler comes across as sullen, abrasive and folds like a cheap suit under pressure. Lovie was a defense first coach, and the Bears are still robust on that side of the ball, and now Trestman comes in to try to coax a better performance out of the offense.

The tools are there. WR Brandon Marshall should be helped with the emergence of Alshon Jeffers at the opposite wideout slot. Matt Forte was limited by injuries last season and how Trestman plans to use him remains to be seen. The Bears biggest problems have stemmed from their protection of Cutler, a line that is best described as ‘offensive’. Out are JaMarcus Webb and Gabe Carimi, a 1^st round flameout, both released early by the Bears and both were the starting tackles a year ago. In come imports Jermon Bushrod and Jonathon Scott. Improvements? That remains to be seen.

The Bears lost Brian Urlacher to retirement but also grabbed Jon Bostic in the draft. Bostic has the requisite nasty streak to play in the Windy City. Is Charles “Peanut” Tillman for real? He picked off 7,374 passes last year in a breakout season. The Bears didn’t improve that much in the off season, and Tillman won’t match last year’s numbers. By season’s end Canada may start looking like a warm place to Trestman.

CHICAGO – 7 – 9/ 3rd Place/ Out of Playoffs

DETROIT – And the Bad Boys of the NFL are just that – bad. Reggie Bush is in giving the Lions

a running game. Sort of. Matthew Stafford got big bucks in the off season. And Calvin Johnson is still Megatron, the capo-de-tuti-capo of wideouts in the NFL. Ndamukong Suh is still here. But gone are Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril. Ziggy Ansah is a rookie athletic freak but still very raw. When your linebacking corps is led by the likes of Stephon Tulloch that can’t be a good sign. Whatever mojo Head Coach Jim Schwartz once had in the Motor city has run out of gas.

Discipline, avoiding costly penalties and turnovers sunk the Lions last year. Schwartz has created an “Us against them” mentality but all he has truly created is a pack of punks and thugs and guys not dedicated to winning ball games. The swagger is there; the ability to back it up with a game is missing.

No one was worse over that last half of the NFL season last year as the Lions managed to lay a goose egg in that period of time. How Schwartz avoided being pink slipped is anyone’s guess. Bush should help the running game but who will help the line open the holes or protect Stafford? Suh has shown no signs yet of maturing and while he is a beast in the middle of the line penalties kill the Lions, a message they don’t seem to grasp.

The defense has serious holes at the corner position as well. In the pass happy NFC North opposing QB’s are looking ahead to games against the Lions as a ‘pad-your-stats-day’ game.

Detroit, the city, is in serious trouble lately. Detroit, the Lions, doesn’t offer its’ citizens much in the way of hope or diversion. At least the Tigers will take attention away from the Lions struggles early on. Maybe the Red Wings can fill the void for the remainder of the year. This year will see Schwartz sent packing by the end of the year as it’s another cold winter in Michigan.

DETROIT LIONS – 6 -10/ 4^th Place/ Out of Playoffs

The rest of the NFL as we see it:

NFC East –

Washington – 10 – 6 (1^st Place/ PLAYOFFS) – The Read Option almost became as extcinct as the Run and Shoot when Mike Shanahan overplayed his franchise in Robert Griffin III into a knee injury. RB Alfred Morris runs wild and RG3 stays in the pocket this year and the ‘Skins take a very weak division by default.

New York Giants – 9 – 7 (2^nd Place/ Out of Playoffs) – Camp Coughlin took a hit when rookies Justin Pugh (OL/ Syracuse) went down. The G-men don’t run like they used to and Victor Cruz has cruised out with a knee injury. Osi Umenyiora is gone also. Coughlin needs a lot of help, but won’t get it. Eli Manning isn’t enough.

Dallas Cowboys – 7 – 9 (3^rd Place/ Out of Playoffs) – Give them a Big ‘D’ down in Dallas for their offseason. Jason Garrett has a Boom or Bust season in front of him. Tony Romo is with $110 MILLION??? All that did was drive Aaron Rodgers’ price up and make Rodgers a very happy man. Jerry Jones – Romo’s play will make him a very unhappy man. The Cowboys had a mediocre draft and weren’t that good with what they had last year. Garrett, the Lion’s Jim Schwartz and the Jets’ Rex Ryan are all in a fierce competition for the Next Coach Fired Derby. The Big ‘D’ will turn into a Big ‘F’ by season’s end.

Philadelphia Eagles – 5 – 11 (4^th Place/ Out of Playoffs) – The Chip Kelly era has begun. Kelly won at Oregon running a pro-style offense against the colleges. Now he has to run a pro-style offense against the pros. Gulp. Mike Vick has never proven he can win anywhere. The boo-birds come to nest in the Eagles roost this year.

NFC South –

Atlanta Falcons – 12 -4 (1^st Place/ Playoffs/ 1^st Round Bye) – Does Atlanta’s stunning loss to

Seattle in the playoffs last year harden them or break them? If ever a team had to win now or else it has to be Atlanta. Mike Smith is in danger of his team becoming the NFC version of perennial bridesmaid San Diego. With the addition of RB Stephen Jackson Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Roddy White help the Falcons fly this year. Yes, this team will score points. But can they keep them off the board on defense?

New Orleans Saints – 10 – 6 (2^nd Place/ Playoffs – Wild Card Team) – Sean Payton is back. Bountygate is behind them Drew Brees is happy. The defense is still suspect, but the offense will make Bourbon St. rollicking again. Laissez le bon temps roullez!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 7 - 9 (3^rd Place/ Out of Playoffs) – Josh Freeman starts to bog down. Greg Schiano’s rah-rah antics wears thin; Revis Island gets overtaken by constant flooding. And the Bucs get mired in mediocrity.

Carolina Panthers – 6 -10 (4^th Place Out of Playoffs) What happened to Cam Newton’s charming smile? Poor offseason doesn’t help the Panthers and the clock is ticking waiting for future diva-at-WR Justin Blackmon to not only grow up but to show up.

NFC West –

San Francisco 49ers – 11 – 5 (1^st Place/ 1^st Round Bye) This might be the toughest division in the NFL now. San Fran gets pushed by the ‘Hawks and Rams and now Jim Harbaugh has to coach and not just yell. Can the NFL catch Colin Kaepernick? Do the Niners have enough of a passing game? Will the Read Option run wild again? With a physical D SF is poised to rule again. Beware the Playoff Upset.

Seattle Seahawks 10 – 6 (2^nd Place/ Playoff Wild Card) No shocks coming from the Pacific Northwest this year. Russell Wilson struggles but Marshawn Lynch carries the offense. The DB’s are as tough and as good as any as group but Seattle looks inconsistent behind a shaky Wilson at times. Adding Cliff Avril makes a better pass rush. Hawks/ 49ers feud becomes ‘must-see’ TV this year.

St. Louis Rams 9- 7 (3^rd Place Out of Playoffs) Taking a WR generously listed at 5’ 8” and 176 lbs at # 6 in WR Tavon Austin is pretty dicey. Losing Stephen Jackson doesn’t help and playing in the NFC West makes for too many hills for Sam Bradford to overcome. Jeff Fisher has them pointed in the right direction but they’re not quite ready for the big-boys table yet.

Arizona Cardinals – 6 - 10 (4^th Place Out of Playoffs) Carson Palmer is freed from purgatory in Oakland and while the weather is better the Cards have to muscle up in this division. Palmer and WR Larry Fitzgerald strike fear into opposing D’s but the rest of the team still lags. The offensive line is weak and losing 1^st rounder Jonathon Cooper is huge blow. But the Cards will surprise a few people along the way.

AFC East –

New England Patriots – 10 – 6 (1^st Place/ Playoffs) – Gronk is injured. Welker jumps to Denver. Hernandez is an idiot. The defense is suspect. The running game has no stud. Belichick isn’t talking. Brady throws for 3,400 yards and 30 TD’s. The more things change the more they stay the same. Another east title, but watch out for the ‘Fins.

Miami Dolphins – Joe Philbin 9 – 7 (2^nd Place/ Out of Playoffs) Joe Philbin has them pointed in the right direction and that’s up. Maybe not this year but Miami looks to be a contender sooner than later. The offseason had some make or break signings (see: Mike Wallace). Playing in the East helps… except against the Pats. Tannehill now has Mike Wallace to throw to. Enough? Almost.

New York Jets – 6 – 10 (3^rd Place/ Out of Playoffs) Rex Ryan is a laugh a minute. His rollicking pressers have been reduced to the level of vaudeville and even downright pissing contests. No matter what brush Ryan uses to paint the Jets are an awful football team. Geno Smith in the 2^nd? There’s a head scratcher. Mark Sanchez as your starter? See: previous comment. Even Graham Harrell has a great chance to become a starter after being cut loose in Green Bay but he won’t last on this quarterback killing team. Ryan will be gassed as the Jets can only man up against lowly Buffalo.

Lowly Buffalo Bills – 3 - 13(4^th Place/ Out of Playoffs but in the running for the JaDaveon Clowney Lottery) After taking E.J. Manuel in the first and their lumps in the press for doing so Kevin Kolb is back on the injured list leaving no one to man the helm. Manuel is barely ready for the scout team – and he’s the default starter.  Jack Kemp was brought in for a look. Their $100 million dollar man Mario Williams totaled 6.5 sacks. Ever wonder WHY ted Thompson doesn’t go to free agency for big names?

AFC North – Cincinnati Bengals – 11 – 5 (Ist Place/ Playoffs/ 1^st Round Bye) – Marvin Lewis has been quietly removing the negative elements (Ochostinko) while the front office has been restocking the shelves with draft picks. After getting a 1^st AND a 2^nd round pick for Carson Palmer, a guy not even on their roster at the time, the Bengals are no longer the Bungles. A ferocious pass rush led by Geno Atkins and thumping LB’s in Rey Malaluga and import James Harrison will carry the Kitties very far into the playoffs. A few breaks and avoiding in juries could make this a deep run.

Baltimore Ravens – 10 – 6 (2^nd Place/ Playoff Wild Card)  How can a team lose Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Bernard Pollard, Daniel Ellerbe, Paul Kruger, Dennis Pitta and Anquin Bolden an still be in the hunt? Easy. They have Ozzie Newsome as their GM and he did his typical under the radar spectacular job of cleaning up the cap mess the Ravens were in while adding talent in free agency and the draft. Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco still has Ray Rice and Torrey Smith while the defense picked up Elvis Dumerville. They still factor in but no repeat is on the horizon.

Cleveland Browns – 8 – 8 (3^rd Place/ Out of Playoffs) You read that right. The once doormat Browns have been stockpiling young talent. RB Trent Richardson and QB Brandon Wheeden has Greg Little, Cameron Jordan and MarQueis Gray for targets and the young D is shaping up. They improve but not enough to run with the Big Dawgs quite yet.

Pittsburgh Steelers – 7 – 9 (4^th Place/ Out of Playoffs) – Mike Tomlin is about to find out that Bill Cowher’s team got old quick.  Much hope was placed on rookie RB LeVeon Bell but he’s hurt. Mike Wallace, Rashard Mendenhall and Jonathon Dwyer are all gone. The same can be said for the offensive line. Gone. Big Ben has a tough time staying healthy behind this patchwork unit and the D slips badly without James Harrison (Cincinnati) and the aging Troy Polamalu.

AFC South –

Houston Texans – 10 – 6 (1^st Place/ Playoffs) – The Texans are putting up pretty numbers.

But their lack of toughness gets exposed annually in the playoffs. DE J.J Watt should change his last name to ‘Swatt’ for the number of balls he tips.  There are no glaring weaknesses, but no overt strengths either. Much attention will be paid to RB Adrian Foster who, at 26, has seen his yards/ carry average decline from 5.0 to 4.4 to 4.1 yards/ carry over the past 3 seasons. Has he been overused way too early? It’s a long grind of a season. Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson have great chemistry but more will be needed for Houston to move on.

Indianapolis Colts – 9 – 7 (2^nd Place/ Out of Playoffs) The Colts lucked into the first pick and Andrew Luck got them back in 1 season. This is a year of growing pains as the Colts phase out Peyton Manning’s crew and they import what they need to build around Luck. WR T.Y. Hilton was a pleasant surprise as was RB Vick Ballard but the D still makes mental gaffes. It’s only a small step back but it’s out of the playoff hunt.

Tennessee Titans – 7 – 9 (3^rd Place/ Out of Playoffs) If ever a team fit the NFL’s ‘parity’ label it’s the Titans. A perennial .500 team that never sinks or rises but hangs around in the middle. RB Chris Johnson has speed and now money to burn but needs to play like it. QB Jake Locker can be wild while the defense is only middling. If parity equaled mediocrity Tennessee would be the NFL’s poster child.

Jacksonville Jaguars – 2 – 14 (Dead Ass Last Everywhere/ Leaders in the Jadaveon Clowney Lottery) Just exactly how bad is Jacksonville? After the final 53 man rosters and cuts were announced Jacksonville promptly went out and signed 7 players cut from other teams, a staggering 13%. What that says is that the Jags are so bad the guys that they kept on their 53 were worse than the guys that weren’t good enough to play elsewhere. Only the Raiders could possibly stink the place out worse than the Jags… but, hey – Buffalo is in the mix too.

AFC West –

Denver Broncos – 11-5  (1^st Place/ Playoff Bye) Up until the Broncos blew the coverage against the Ravens last year in the playoffs everything had Denver mile high. Peyton Manning resumed his position among the Big 3 of QB’s with Rodgers and Brady, the pass rush was fierce, DeMaryius Thomas is a blossoming star along with Von Miller… and then the bottom fell out completely. A Holy Hail Mary sends the Broncs home, a paper fax snafu leads to Elvis Dumerville’s untimely departure, 2 team execs get caught for DUI (probably the 2 idiots responsible for faxing Dumerville’s contract) and now Miller is suspended 6 games. Just when things couldn’t get worse new play toy for Manning Wes Welker gets hurt. But the season levels out and so do the Broncos.

Kansas City Chiefs 9 – 7 (2^nd Place/ Playoff Wild Card) – That5 is correct. KC becomes the 2^nd consecutive ‘Worst-to’Playoffs’ team after Indy pulled the feat off last year. Gone is offensively challenged Romeo Crennel and Andy Reid steps into a team with a REAL QB in Alex Smith and studs in RB Jamal Charles, WR Dwayne Bowe, S Eric Berry, and LB Justin Houston. The Chiefs had another great draft adding LT Eric Fisher to protect Smith and Reid will give Smith an offense that suits him. For the retreads the Midwest is a great landing place.

San Diego Chargers – 6 – 10 (3^rd Place/ Out of Playoffs) What goes up must come down. And the Chargers are in total free fall. Their descent of the arc can be traced back to the decision that kept Philip Rivers over Drew Brees. RB Ryan Matthews has failed to ignite and the Chargers, once an annual lock for the playoffs, are sinking slowly into the good night of obscurity. Rivers has to cut down on his picks. Matthews has to stop fumbling. The defense has to stop the pass. But that’s like asking for a snowstorm in Southern California.

Oakland Raiders – 3 – 13 (4^th Place/ Out of Playoffs but in the Jadaveon Clowney Lottery) The Raiders can’t do anything right. They will win just enough games to miss out on DE JaDaveon Clowney, the freakish college early consensus #1 overall pick out of South Carolina. Matt Flynn goes from Green Bay to a starting spot in Seattle… until Russell Wilson outplays him. So Flynn goes from Seattle to Oakland to be the starter where a starter is desperately needed… until Terrell Pryor is named the starter. It matters not who QB’s this mess. Head Coach Dennis Allen is in overt his head and even RB Darren McFadden can’t salvage the Black and Silver. By season’s end they will be Black and Blue.

 

NEXT: Preview of the San Francisco Game