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Pack/ 49ers Resume Old Rivalry in Playoff Clash

 

 

Everybody pretty much figured it would come to this – a playoff showdown between the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers. Both teams entered the season as prohibitive favorites and most thought they would be right in the hunt for the NFC crown. They weren’t wrong.

With all due respect to the Atlanta Falcons, who are becoming the Rodney Dangerfield’s of the NFL in that they can’t get much respect in spite of their NFC leading 1^st place record, the game of the week, maybe even of the entire playoffs will be between the Pack and the Niners in San Francisco on Saturday night.

The Packers easily rolled past the Minnesota Vikings in moving on while San Fran enjoyed the week off in preparations. Both teams are dynamic, exciting squads and the field will be littered with star power from both sides. The Packers famously flamed out early against the Giants exposing their defensive deficiencies in the process. The fiery Jim Harbaugh has rapidly rebuilt a contender that is defense heavy and has aspirations of taking the next step. Only a last second fumble of a punt by Kyle Williams kept the 49ers from moving into the Super Bowl last year as Williams muff gave the New York Giants an opportunity they did now blow to get in to the Supe.

Now both teams look for redemption from last year’s disappointing exits from the playoffs.

We’ll take a look at the position by position matchups to give a closer look to both teams.

QUARTERBACK –

Any conversation involving a quarterback now must include Aaron Rodgers’ name. Rodgers already has an MVP award, a Super Bowl win and a Super Bowl MVP on his resume. That alone gives the Packers a clear advantage at the position against almost any team in the NFL. Rodgers’ numbers since replacing the irreplaceable Brett Favre have been beyond even the wildest hopes of the Packer brass that drafted him after he twisted in the wind on draft day and falling to #24 in the draft. San Francisco took Alex Smith #1 overall and passing up on the hometown kid who had 49er posters on his bedroom wall, and Smith was taken largely because the Niners offensive coordinator at the time campaigned hard for Smith. Of course, since that coordinator found a new job he has done a complete turnaround on the topic. Mike McCarthy must have had a few sit-downs with Rodgers after he took the Packers reins to explain his thought process at the time. Since then Rodgers and McCarthy have become joined at the hip and McCarthy’s decision to pass on Rodgers as a Niner assistant is the best thing he could have done for himself as the Packers Head Coach. Smith began the year as the 49ers #1 QB only to get replaced by Colin Kaepernick who brings a Michael Vick quality to the table. Kaepernick is a far more mobile and athletic QB than Smith and is capable of gashing defenses with his running ability. But is the time since Kaepernick has taken over for Smith the Niners overall passing game has gone down. While Kaepernick presents more of a headache for Dom Capers and McCarthy the advantage at the QB slot is clearly in favor of the reigning MVP. Rodgers has been there before and has the hardware as well as the tools to succeed. How will Kaepernick respond when the glare gets bright and the heat gets hottest?

ADVANTAGE – GREEN BAY (By a lot)

RUNNING GAME –

Lost in the Adrian Peterson comeback tour was the 49ers stellar back in Frank Gore. There are a handful of truly high level backs in the NFL led by Peterson, but Gore, the Texans Arian Foster, the Hawks Marshawn Lynch and the Ravens Ray Rice are also elite backs. Gore’s style is more nimble than Peterson’s, more physical than Foster’s and is the center around which the Niners build their success. Gore enters the game the 10^th leading rusher in the NFL with 1,214 yards while the Packers counter with **ahem** DuJuan Harris, who had been trying to make it as a car salesman about the time Gore was hitting 800 yards this year. Clearly the advantage goes to the 49ers. But the Packers have the benefit of having played against Peterson 2 weeks in a row and that has to count for some type of prep work for Gore. If the Packers are to have any shot at all of beating the 49ers it has to lie in their ability to do as they did against Peterson last week – bend but don’t break and contain Gore. Gore is more likely to try to exploit the interior holes his line opens up while Peterson bounces outside better. It will be up to A.J. Hawk and Eric Walden to keep gore from breaking off a long one. The 186 yards surrendered to SF on opening night came at the expense of some wide eyed Packer rookies who have since had their eyes opened to what real running back look like, and they will be put to the test again here. For Green Bay to advance they cannot afford to let Gore run wild and have to cut down on the 186 yards he gained in week 1 against them.

ADVANTAGE – SAN FRANSISCO (By a lot)

OFFENSIVE LINE

The key matchups in this game are going to be in the trenches and how the offensive lines match up against the defensive lines. In both areas the 49ers hold the advantage. But that’s only if the game is played on paper. G Mike Iupati leads a stout group of earth movers for SF and anchors the left side along with LT Joe Staley. Both have helped the young Niners transform themselves into an effective smash mouth team and excel in the running blocking game. RG Alex Boone has played nothing like the player he was expected to be and has turned into a more than capable component of the line. The matchup of Staley vs. Clay Matthews will be fun to watch. While Staley is beast-strong he may not have an answer for Matthews speed and will need help from All Pro FB Bruce Miller to chip in. Miller is both an excellent lead blocker for Gore on the backside and also in protecting Kaepernick’s backside. For the Packers to be successful much will be demanded from their left side in Marshall Newhouse and T.J. Lang. Newhouse was more than adequate against Jared Allen and Lang tends to struggle and disappear at times. But when they are in sync and Rodgers is releasing the ball quickly they can be effective. Since rookie RT Don Barclay has stepped in the Packer running game has utilized the right side of the field more frequently following Barclay and Josh Sitton who gets better every game. When Jeff Saturday informed McCarthy he has little left in the tank he stepped aside to allow Evan Dietrich-Smith enough time to get in and get some much needed experience. When the Packers line up across from Justin Smith and Aldon Smith they will need to play one of their best games of the year. Justin Smith is a horse on two legs, able to move blockers around to create the lanes the lightning quick Aldon Smith uses to get inside to do his damage with his pass disruptions and sacks. The Smith Boys utilize stunts, switches and brute strength to impose their will and it will be a collective effort needed to slow them down. How well each team’s lines protect and open holes dictates the course of the offense for both squads.

ADVANTAGE – SF (But not by much)

RECEIVERS –

If the discussion in the pass game begins with the quarterback then it ends with the receivers that catch the ball. This one is a short discussion. Aaron Rodgers had a routine big day again in the Wild Card hookup with Minnesota and hit 10 different receivers with passes. So the question for the 49ers is who do you cover? And how? For the first time since the first meeting against SF in Green Bay the Pack should have every weapon available for Rodgers to use. Jordy Nelson limped off last week but returned later to grab a 73 yard catch and run that a healthy Nelson would have punched in for 6. Greg Jennings is rounding into shape and Randall Cobb is becoming a slot threat superstar. This doesn’t even account for the NFL’s leader in TD grabs James Jones, who will always be the 4^th receiver on this team. Oh, for other teams 1^st receiver to be so cursed. Now throw in TE Jermichael Finley who, since publicly bellyaching about Rodgers in the press, is developing into a possession target. Not limiting himself to the wideouts or the stars Rodgers can distribute the ball to his backs as well, making the Packers arsenal a very imposing one. From the 49ers side of the ball Michael Crabtree is very much like the Packers A.J. Hawk – a solid, serviceable pro but not exactly the type of player you’d expect given his lofty draft status. Crabtree went #10 overall, held out, and SF is still waiting for his big breakout year. Mario Manningham jumped from the Giants but is now done for the year after a knee injury and Randy Moss is running on fumes and a fading reputation. TE Vernon Davis is a matchup nightmare possessing WR speed and a TE’s body and will be key in Kaepernick’s success. Davis shined last year against New Orleans in the playoff with a superb career changing game. But make no mistake – the vulnerability of the Niners is in the passing game and as proficient as they are in the run and on defense it could spell an earlier exit than anticipated, especially if Rodgers gets untracked early in trying to stick it to the team that passed him over. The 49ers simply cannot match the Packers in the pass game. All Rodgers needs is the time to deliver the ball.

ADVANTAGE – GREEN BAY (Big Advantage)

DEFENSIVE LINE –

Last year the Packers were one of the worst teams in the NFL in almost any and every defensive category, including sack totals. What a difference a year makes. Green bay’s D has steadily improved throughout the year and the rookies, while far being considered grizzled veterans, have contributed mightily to the cause. Mike Daniels also is a regular part of the cause and Mike Neal is now playing well after he missed the first game while sitting out a suspension. B.J. Raji has seen his sack totals tumble yet is still the anchor in the middle of the line. Raji and Ryan Pickett will have to clog up the lanes to keep Gore from goring the Pack. But the real news is the SF defensive line, among one of the very best in football. Aldon Smith is the hybrid ‘tweener’, not a defensive end yet not a linebacker either, although he will line up in both spots. Aldon Smith rang up a whopping 19.5 sacks for the year putting him right up there with the Texans J.J. Watt among the league leaders. The Niners employ the same 3 – 4 defense the Packers use and are frighteningly similar. Justin Smith is what makes this line so imposing. While Justin sat out a few games with injuries Aldon was largely absent. It is Justin’s pocket collapsing bull rushes that open in the interior lanes for Aldon Smith to penetrate and use his pterodactyl-like wing span to devour opposing quarterbacks. If Justin Smith is on it will be a long day for the Packers blocking and backfield. If, however, his injuries slow him the scales move closer. But SF has the decided edge in this category.

ADVANTAGE – SF

LINEBACKERS –

At first glance the 49ers, on paper, look to be a runaway with this position. Patrick Willis has become one of the premier inside linebackers in the game, and when NaVarro Bowman and Ahmad Brooks get added to the fold along with Aldon Smith the Niners have maybe the best 4 LB’s in football. A hectic, fast, and rangy they all can get after the QB. Rodgers will need his head on a swivel to keep up and the Packs offensive line will be tested as severely as possible by the 49ers LB’s and pass rush. But don’t sell the store quite yet – Green Bay counters with some pretty fair backers themselves. Clay Matthews leads an active bunch and all A.J. Hawk does year after year is to lead the team in tackles, call the plays on the field, never miss a game and yet Hawk is perennially poo-poohed as overpaid. Eric Walden continues to improve every week. His pass disruptions on the Vikings’ Joe Webb made Webb’s day miserable and now Walden has to match the heat he brought against Kaepernick. Getting to the SF QB is the key. Forcing the inexperienced Kaepernick into forcing the ball plays directly into the Packers hands. The much overlooked yet steady Brad Jones will also see time with Dezman Moses and keeping Kaepernick from tearing off big gainers on the run will be a game long proposition.

ADVANTAGE (And it ain’t by much…) – SF

DB’s –

Quick – name any of the 49ers corners or safeties. Anyone who responded with Carlos Rogers, Tarell Brown, Donte Whitner or Dashon Goldson can move immediately to the head of the class. If there is an exploitable weakness on the 49ers it is in their defensive backfield. Rogers and Whitner may be the only names folks outside of the Bay area may have heard as San Fran DB’s play largely in anonymity and in the shadow of the pass rush. Much like the Pack’s turnover makers last year both teams have seen their takeaways radically reduced but that doesn’t necessarily mean they are playing worse. The Niners backs simply have to cover their men while the big fellas up front get after it. The simplest recipe in beating the 49ers is for the 49ers to have an off day in the rush dept. and have the QB attack the corners and exploit mismatches, something that suits Aaron Rodgers perfectly. In the 4 losses and a tie sustained by San Francisco this year the common denominator was 1) Frank Gore was held largely in check and 2) opposing QB’s relentlessly attacked the corners. Granted, when Justin Smith isn’t on the field it makes attacking the Niners DB’s that much easier. But the Rams and Seahawks both carved up SF’s D. Mike McCarthy will have plenty of film on how to get past the 49er rush to get the matchups Rodgers wants in the next round. As for Green Bay most can recall when cornerback was considered the weakest area on the team. Not anymore. Rookie Casey Hayward didn’t see the field in the first game and yet is poised to become the NFL’s Defensive rookie of the Year with his 6 picks and rapidly improving play. Sam Shields has returned from an ankle injury and has shown great improvement in his coverage skills and especially his tackling, a sore spot from last year. Tramon Williams is still the Pack’s lead dog on the corner. The development of Hayward, 2^nd year man Davon House and Shields has allowed Capers to slide Charles Woodson into the S slot alongside hard hitting Morgan Burnett. Not only do the Packers have a clear advantage at the position Green Bay may even have the more favorable matchups than SF in the WR vs. DB dept. With the playoff inexperience of Kaepernick Green Bay has a larger advantage that SF would want to admit.

ADVANTAGE – GREEN BAY

SPECIAL TEAMS –

 

The 49ers once superb K David Akers has had an awful year, so bad that it forced 49er coach John Harbaugh to lose confidence in him and go out and sign another K in Billy Cundiff as insurance. The Packers once superb K Mason Crosby has had an awful year, so bad that it forced Packer coach Mike McCarthy to lose confidence in him and go for more 4^th downs than he would like from distances of 40 yards or more. Both kickers have inexplicably struggled with accuracy this year leaving both teams scratching their heads and wondering what the hell can go wrong on this kick. Akers has gone a meager 27 of 52, just barely over 50% and Crosby hasn’t been much better. Unlike Akers Crosby shows signs of getting back on track in his recent kicks. But it will be interesting to see how each team plays it with a 45 yarder if the winds in SF are swirling. In the punting area both teams have big legs and nothing to apologize for. SF P Andy Lee is an All Pro and Packers P Tim Masthay has boomed them so far and so well it has rendered the Jon Ryan fiasco into the unspoken and unheard box. Pinning opponents deep is the strong suit for both kickers. And while the 49ers have decent enough returners in Kyle Williams and a disappointing Ted Ginn Jr. who has never quite become the home run threat many thought he would be coming out of college the Packers have Randall Cobb and now Jeremy Ross running the kicks back. McCarthy may take a long look at the Redskins Mike Shanahan’s decision to play his QB, Robert Griffin III that resulted in an ACL injury before deciding if he wants to throw Cobb back there as Cobb has become vital to the Packers offensive thrusts. If Cobb is back there, advantage Pacerks. But, if he gets hurt back there... If either team has an advantage it is only in Crosby showing more signs of rebounding than Akers. The winds will neutralize that though.

ADVANTAGE – GREEN BAY (By Just a Little)

COACHES –

 

Put up a fence and stick Mike McCarthy and Jim Harbaugh on opposite sides. One is explosive, fiery, animated, emotional and coaches more like a high strung player while the other is stoic, solid, cool under fire and coaches more like he expects his players to simply get the job done. A study in contrasts earmarks the differences between the two men. A perfect example is how McCarthy handled the disaster of the Fail Mary in Seattle. It was only a scant year ago Harbaugh was embroiled in a controversy after slapping the Lions Jim Schwartz on the back and disdainfully pushing him away last season. After witnessing that vignette play out can would anyone care to hazard a guess as to the invectives that would have flown liberally from Harbaugh had it been he and not McCarthy getting hosed by the replacement refs? McCarthy’s laid back style belies his intensity. McCarthy has grown as a coach and is a man so comfortable in his own skin that the only opinions that matter to him are those of his players and he really couldn’t care less what the press or fans think. His grace under fire, refusal to engage a debate on the Seattle theft earn McCarthy high marks and he is more than deserving of a Coach of the Year Award for his ability to continue to cobble together winning teams from lineups decimated by injury. The 49ers heartbreaking loss last year may actually help Harbaugh into becoming a better coach. But McCarthy has the distinct advantage in having won the Big One already, a feat at which Harbaugh can only envy.

It’s close here, but…

ADVANTAGE – GREEN BAY

HOME FIELD –

Surprisingly Green Bay has performed well on the road in the playoffs with the noted exception being the shootout in the desert when the Cards beat the Pack in OT by score of 351 – 346 in the highest scoring game ever in NFL post season history. The playing surface could affect play. A slick, wet, muddy track could slow down the Packers’ receivers. It could also bog down the Niners ground game. Both kickers will be wishing they had just signed with a dome team. The advantage will be negligible, even with the noise. The Packers experience and poise offset the crowd.

ADANTAGE – NEITHER TEAM

In the first game of the year the 49ers broke fast and never looked back. Setting a tone they would repeat throughout the year Green Bay fell behind and had to play catch up. But with a season under their belts the Packers rookies are not so easily intimadatible. The 49ers were the darlings of the NFL and were running away with, but then began to stumble along the way. Both teams have made significant changes, the most noted being the Packers loss of Cedric Benson and the 49ers replacing of Alex Smith. A Divisional Game might be more than a 2^nd year young QB is ready for, and Kaepernick could be the one to make the mistakes. Rodgers is so cool under fire his shoulder pads need to be checked for an air-conditioning unit.

The battle in the trenches determines this one. The up front slug fests between the offensive and defensive lines will be epic and this one will be a close one. It could just as easily be a blowout the likes of which Green Bay threw at a stunned Atlanta team from their Super Bowl run 2 seasons ago, but all signs point to a close, low scoring game and who makes – or more to the point DOESN’T make – the mistakes.

  GREEN BAY 20

 

 San Francisco 17