CAN THE PACKERS RIGHT THE SHIP?

Pack Faces Powerhouse Houston in Key Matchup

In an up and down season highlighted by lowlights and consistently inconsistent play the Packers now travel to the new AFC powerhouse Houston to face the unbeaten Texans. Sporting an eyesore ugly 2-3 record Green Bay is no longer in the position of being the best on the block and they now find themselves painted into a corner if they are to keep their playoff hopes alive.

There is hardly a person that knows and watches football that could have seen this coming. Who in their right mind would have ever thought that by the 2^nd weekend in October Green Bay would be staring at what may be a ‘must-win’ game? After blowing a huge halftime lead last week to the Colts the Packers are running out of reasons, excuses, and time if they are to get back into the playoff picture.

The NFL is a coldly progressive business. Dynasties the likes of the Packers of the ‘60s, the Steelers of the ‘70’s, the 49ers of them 80’s, the Cowboys of the 90’s and Patriots of the 00’s are becoming as rare as the spotted owl. Green Bay looked to be that next big thing.

Then reality set in.

Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers has had a truly magnificent run in Green Bay and now faces a yeoman’s task in getting his defense to elevate. The Packers have been a ‘draft and develop’ team since GM Ted Thompson arrived. The Pack routinely eschews the Free Agent big money quick fix and targets players in the draft, keep them out of action except for maybe special teams in the players first years, get them to learn and know the system, allow them some playing time in year 2 and by year 3 they are looking for the tree to bear fruit.

After last year’s defense became one of the worst in NFL history while the offense became one of the best in NFL history the Packers deliberately dove deep into defense in the draft. The urgency and immediate need drove the decisions. And now Green Bay’s draft and develop system is being challenged. Rookies must now take the field and are expected to produce results. DE Jerel Worthy, LB Nick Perry, CB Casey Hayward and DE Mike Daniels have seen far more playing time than any other rookie in the Thompson era. And they are expected to play well.

But the results have been inconsistent. The high expectations of the defense are so high they may be unattainable. Try to stand in Worthy’s or Perry’s or Hayward’s shoes… take Nick Perry (photo - 53/ left). One day he’s a college senior graduating from USC and one of the best in the country as a football player. The very next day he’s a Packer, a millionaire playing alongside Clay Matthews and now he is expected to immediately play as well as Clay Matthews. That’s a pretty steep demand even for a seasoned veteran.

There is no doubt there is talent on the defense. But looking at the Packer team harken back to about 5 years ago to 2008 when Brett Favre called the team that finished 4-12 just two seasons earlier (2006) and 8-8 in 2007 “…the most talented team he’s ever played on…”.  The laughter that rang out from that declaration at the time was dispelled just 2 seasons later when that talented team – minus Favre – won the Super Bowl. That team finished at 11 – 5 and lost in the first round in the famed shootout against Arizona, a beating that helped galvanize the team the Packers would become.

The ascension of the Packers has been so staggeringly high that there is no place to go but down. Consider the following – going from a .500 team to a playoff loss to a Super Bowl win to a 15 -1 season…if expectations are high it’s because the foundation has been laid.

Now suddenly instead of promising rookies who can grow into and learn their craft before being thrown to the wolves they are thrust out there with a “just win now kid” mentality. How much better was Aaron Rodgers for having sat the bench for his first three years? This year the rookies do not have that luxury. Green Bay is no longer a team on the rise; they are already there. Now the demand is to stay there.

In spite of all this the Packers have suddenly become mortal and vulnerable. Green Bay’s troubles are not exclusive or restricted to the defense. The offense is so badly out of sync that even the players are scratching their heads. Rodgers’ two greatest attributes – his accuracy and his innate decision making – are betraying him this year. His passes are falling short. His passes are going over the heads of wide open receivers. Worse is they are being picked off. Injuries have been a factor, yes, but the Super Bowl team had 15 – fifteen! – regulars out or on IR due to injuries.

The offensive line that protected Rodgers so well has suddenly become very porous. Rodgers has been sacked at an alarming clip and at this rate he is on pace to be dropped 67 times this year. That is an ugly fact. His decision making has gone backwards as well as he has fallen back on his first season mistakes of forcing plays and hanging on to the ball too long. Give the rest of the NFL credit. The Pack’s track record of terrific receivers has not fallen on blind eyes. Defensive coordinators have now started to figure out how to beat then Packers. Take away the run and force Rodgers to pass, create exotic blitzes from all angles but most importantly jam every receiver at the line.

 Film does not lie. Watch how the teams that win are doing it. It would be a safe bet that very few people could name the Colts defensive backs, and for good reason. They are not among the best in the league and are not even candidates. But there they were, right on the line nose to nose against Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and Jermichael Finley. BUt there the Colts were challenging - daring - the Packers and Rodgers to make a play. On the last pass play before Green Bay took a shot at a last ditch field goal attempt the Colts rolled up their coverage and had everyone up on the line in the faces of the mighty Packers. With no safties deep it was a move that paid off huge as Rodgers could only muster an 8 yard toss to Jones. Last year Rodgers and Co. would have eaten that move like candy. Not this year. Seattle may have the finest group of DB’s in the NFL as a unit. Lost in the wake of The Play, The Fail Mary, The Game Winning Interception is the fact that Seattle’s DB’s throttled the Packers receivers and now the rest of the league has taken note. And they were also in the grill of the recievers who are getting no release at the line, a move that counters the timed execution of the Packers offense.

When the Packers have won it was with a balanced offense and a defense that pressured the opposition QB. RB Cedric Benson pounded the inside so well it created opportunities for Rodgers to exploit the defenses in Chicago and New Orleans and even Indianapolis. The Colts were the only team to adjust and for whatever reason the Packers continue to play down to the level of their opponents as they let the colts off the hook with a forgettable second half collapse last week.

Last year they routinely scored almost at will. It became too easy. Green Bay did not win as much as they outscored teams in a way that masked the imperfections. Now as the Packers face adversity is from within. The leaders of the team must step up and lead, they must set the pace. They must be the example that drags their mates along. Charles Woodson cannot give in to his frustrations to the point he needs to be restrained by teammates to avoid ejection. B.J. Raji cannot stand over a fallen opponent and knee him in the head for a transgression. Rodgers cannot keep missing his receivers and the receivers have to find a way to quit dropping the damn ball. And the offensive line has to keep Rodgers clean.

The reasons for the Pack’s inconsistent start are starting to sound like excuses. The injuries are now piling up. The refs seem to be conspiring as a group to find more inventive ways to screw up obvious calls, both replacements and regulars.

So in the midst of all this Green Bay now has to face Houston. QB Matt Schaub has become Aaron Rodgers 2.0 version. He is moving the Texans offense well, and offense that boasts the NFL’s best running back in Arian Foster and maybe best WR in Andre Johnson. While Detroit’s Calvin Johnson may take exception Houston’s Andre is a formidable foe. He has height, speed, strength and great hands, a daunting task to a team that is struggling a bit in its’ coverages. While A. Johnson has spent most of this season banged up and nicked up if form holds true as it has all season he will be 100% for the game against the Pack.

 Foster is that rarest of players who came to Houston as an undrafted free agent, was released, then resigned to the practice squad and finally got a shot due to injuries. He has not looked back since. In his first 6 games as a rook he posted a 4.8 yards/ carry average, a fact not lost on Head Coach Gary Kubiak. The following year Foster exploded for over 1,600 yards rushing to go with 66 catches for another 604 yards and a total of 18 TD’s. Foster handled the ball 393 times with only 3 fumbles, a less than 1% ratio. He has become simply the best all-around back in the game.

 Houston had the luxury of allowing former #1 overall pick Mario Williams to bolt to the Bills and dollar bills. It’s not as if Williams was a stiff in the Lone Star state either. But the Texans are so loaded on defense that they literally could afford to let Williams walk. DE J.J. Watt has been lights out all year. His motor is non-stop and he plays the run and pass equally well, and with his leaping ability he can also get up enough to swat down a few stray throws. LB Connor Barwin has also been stout, but the loss of former Trojan and Matthews’s teammate Brian Cushing to a season ending knee injury may hurt. Cushing was the captain, play caller and heart of the defense. Jonathon Joseph is the Texans shutdown corner and now he gets to test his mettle against Green Bay.

The Packers will have to do without Cedric Benson and it may be for a long stretch with a bad foot injury. RB Alex Green showed some promise and now will be the feature back. Green has burst and power and could open up screen pass possibilities that could take advantage of overzealous opponents. Whether or not James Starks’ nagging turf toe injury has cleared up is still unsure but he may also see time. Even Brandon Saine may get a few snaps as he is the best blocking back of the Pack and also has terrific hands out of the backfield. Jermichael Finley was also hurt when he jammed his shoulder going out of bounds and Greg Jennings is still not 100% with a groin pull that has bogged him down all season.

DT B.J. Raji left a huge hole when he left in Indy with an ankle injury and the Packers did not have another DT on the bench. Raji left a literal hole in the middle of the line that aided Indy’s cause. DE Mike Neal returned from a 4 game ban and had his first sack in his first game, a noteworthy accomplishment as Neal is needed to finally contribute to the defense. The Packers had gone 11 quarters – the longest stretch in Mike McCarthy’s tenure – without a defensive turnover until Casey Hampton got his first career pick last week. Hayward has been very smooth as a rookie and has shown maybe the best ball skills of the DB’s this year, and that includes Tramon Williams’ and Charles Woodson. Woodson clearly has to cut down his clutching and grabbing and hoping to get away with it. His ill-timed penalties have kept drives alive that could have ended much sooner.

"Could". "Might". "If". "Maybe".  These are not the buzzwords ordinarily associated with the Pack. Green Bay desperately needs a big win against a quality opponent. But the Texans look an awful lot like the Packers did when they began to catch fire. The Texans have a little more firepower that is clicking than the Packers now and McCarthy and Capers will have their hands full as the Texans are that good.

Green Bay and Houston both continue their trend as Houston stays perfect and the Packers continue to wonder what’s going wrong. 

 

 

   HOUSTON 27  

   Green Bay 24