The opening game of the 2011/12 NFL playoffs between the Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans is now officially the “Rookie Bowl”. Rookie QB’s Andy Dalton (Cincy) and T.J. Yates square off. The Bengals have had a rebirth this year, a year that was supposed to be a rebuilding year after franchise QB Carson Palmer pitched a hissy and held his breath until he was traded away and the diva twins – Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco or Johnson or No Lo Contendre or whatever he is known as now were exiled as well. But the Bengals Mike Brown pulled the wool over the eyes of the too eager Raiders and extracted a 1st and 2nd rounder over 2 years for a guy not even on the roster, thus earning himself the NFL’s Executive of the Year Award. In the process the Bengals grabbed Dalton and #6 pick WR A.J. Green, a ferocious D and have clawed their way back into contention. The Texans took top spot in the woeful AFC South almost by default. With QB Matt Schaub out, the Texans will depend on a heavily banged up Arian Foster to run the ball with fellow RB Ben Tate. While serviceable Yates has hardly been stellar in his replacement role. All World WR Andre Johnson tore a hammy early has not been the same. Led by Brian Cushing and Connor Barshwin at LB the Texans D his stout. While the D stepped up this year DE Mario Williams is done for the season and CB Jonathon Joseph, a free agent picked up from where else – Cincinnati – won’t be enough. This is the opening round Upset Special. While both teams are in rare air Houston has more gaps than the Bengals.
CINCINNATI 23
Houston 17
The scariest team in the NFC for the Packers has to be the New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees set the all-time yardage mark and has almost as many weapons as Aaron Rodgers at his disposal, and he uses them all. The Pack eked out a week 1 win and that won’t be enough to mollify the Green and Gold faithful as the Saints are the hottest team entering the Super Bowl Derby. RB’s Darren Sproles, Chris Ivery and rookie Mark Ingram have led a suddenly potent ground attack, the type that will relentlessly pound away at the inexperienced Detroit Lions. While Brees is an elite QB he does have a tendency to get careless with his throws and has benefited against teams that are not as proficient at yanking a few of those tosses. If the Saints have a weakness it is on the defensive side of the ball. The Saints have few playmakers and depend on outscoring teams and not making a big play. Rookie TE Jimmy Graham has been a welcome surprise and will see a lot of throws over the middle. For the Lions it is the first trip back since ‘99 to the Big Dance. QB Matthew Stafford threw for over 5,000 yards and set Detroit records in the process. Calvin Johnson at WR is as good as they come, but Detroit’s inability to run the ball and their susceptibility to self-implosion on defense is not a good combination. For Detroit it is one and done while the Saints sharpen their edge.
NEW ORLEANS 38
Detroit 27
Perhaps the best matchup of the weekend will be the Atlanta Falcons and New York Giants. They come in and look similar on paper. While both teams are rightfully considered quality playoff teams it is the maddening inconsistencies of both that make them so frustrating. The Giants have looked at times like the team that won it all a few scant years ago, and then turn around and look like they couldn’t get past a high school team. Eli Manning had a terrific year and slid past the Lions Matthew Stafford to grab a Pro Bowl slot but he won’t be confused with a model of consistency. The RB’s Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw have been as cold as they have been hot and may struggle against the Falcons D led by John Abdraham, as has the receiving corps led by Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks. On D the Giants have struggled inexplicably in putting a consistent pass rush together. But with Justin Tuck healthy and coming on, he may be able to shake the G-Men from their doldrums. QB Matt Ryan has to prove he can win a playoff game. This one is squarely on Ryan’s shoulders and WR Roddy White has to hang on to the ball, a tall order for the NFL’s leader in dropped passes. Rookie Julio Jones and TE Tony Gonzalez are factors, but it will be Ryan and RB Michael Turner who determine this game. This one will go back and forth down to the wire. The Giants may have used their get out of jail free card against Dallas, and Atlanta is a big upgrade from the Slowpokes. It's not an upset.
ATLANTA 24
New York 21
If any game looked like a no brainer on paper it is the Steelers against the Denver Broncos. The Steelers have experience while the Broncos are young. The Steelers have QB Ben Roethlisberger and the Broncos it is Tim Tebow. The Steelers were in the Super Bowl last year. The Broncos won the war of attrition and slipped past the very disappointing Chargers, Chiefs and Raiders to make it in. Tebow’s pathetic 41% completion rate would earn him a bus ticket out in most cities. But there is no denying Tebow has the “It” factor when it comes to pulling games out. The biggest mistake the Steelers could make is to play it conservative and look past Denver to a rematch with Baltimore and keep it close. The Broncos young D led by Rookie (of the Year) Von Miller is incredibly underrated and is far more responsible for Denver’s record than Tebow. The D keeps it close so Tebow can ride in after playing awful for 55 minutes. But the Steelers are not the intimidating presence of old. In fact, they ARE old. And banged up. Big Ben along with James Harrison, Troy Polemalu and James Farrior are all nursing injuries. The Steelers have become a passing team this year and RB Rashard Mendenhall’s habit of dropping the rock is as irritating as it is back breaking. It is worth mentioning that the Steelers squeaked past the Cleveland Browns last week 13 – 9. Don’t think that fact has been lost on the Broncos. The Steelers have gotten through a few games on sheer will power and veteran leadership, but that may also work against them if they go to the well once too often. The Steelers also know how to play their best when they need to, and they now need to. Tebow gets a hard lesson in NFL reality this week.
PITTSBURGH 38
Denver 13
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