The Key Matchups

The Steelers and Packers look so eerily similar on paper it is hard to avoid the comparisons. The NFL Network, ESPN, and virtually anyone covering Super Bowl XLV has run some variation of “Which QB would you rather have – Aaron Rodgers or Ben Roethlisberger?” In the previous comparative analyses done here it is a dead even draw. Enough with the comparisons,; neither ARod or Big Ben will actually have to face each other on the field. This game, as is all games played in the NFL, will be decided by the key matchups and which team is better able to win the game within a game. Last year the Pack and the Steelers hooked up in a wildly entertaining game that saw Pittsburgh escape with a 37-36 last minute toenails-in-the-blades-of-grass last second heave by Roethlisberger, and game in which Big Ben threw for over 500 yards. There are two things certain in this game – 1) Ben will not put up 500 yards. The Packers have improved far too much to repeat last year’s meltdown and 2) the Steelers will not repeat their performance they put up against the Jets in limiting NY to 1 yard rushing in the first half. While only one year removed both teams are light years evolved from last year’s encounter.

So, how do they match up? Here are the key  matchups to to watch and see how they stack up and where this game will be won or lost.

RASHARD MENDENHALL vs. the PACKERS RUN DEFENSE

Pittsburgh is back to its ‘ground n pound’ mentality and the biggest key to their success will be in Mendenhall’s ability to put up big numbers. At first glance the Steelers have a big advantage as the Packers D has been middling against the run. That was until C Maurkice Pouncey found himself booted up with a dreaded high ankle sprain and looks as if he will not be able to go. Unless Pouncey can pull a Willis Reed-like appearance this will really ding the Steelers chances as backup C Doug Legursky will have to handle B.J. Raji. Raji in particular has been outstanding the past month and a stalwart on the Packers Defensive Line. Mendenhall’s ability to run opens up whatever passing game is needed by Roethlisberger. Perhaps no other team in football gets as much out of a 20 -25 pass game as Roethlisberger and the Steelers. The Steelers are not a pass-first team and if they are unable to run that makes the nest matchup all that much more difficult for them. If the Packers can key in on and put the clamps on Mendenhall it will limit the Steelers offensive effectiveness. Don’t be surprised if the Steelers go with a lot more play-action to freeze the Packers blitz happy defenders. This one will be the key for both teams. If Pitt can run, they can keep Rodgers and the pass happy Pack where they can do the least damage – right on the bench.

ADVANTAGE – STEELERS (only by a slim margin due to Pouncey)

STEELERS WR’s Hines Ward/ Antwaan Randall El/ Mike Wallace/ Emmanuel Sanders vs.

GREEN BAY’s CB’s Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, Brandon Underwood

Last time Roethlisberger had a career day against the Pack with over 500 yards in passing. Yikes! That was a much different secondary back then. This year’s group does not include such fearsome defensive intimidators as Josh Bell or Jarrett Bush. Tramon Williams has developed into a stud and Sam Shields has been outstanding thus far. Of course, the Packers have not seen anyone quite as adroit at escaping the rush and winging it on the fly outside of their own practices. Woodson will be all over the field and complimenting the push from Matthews. The Packers will try to hurry Roethlisberger and clamp down on Pitts WR’s. Bottling up Mendenhall is the first order of business. It’s not that the Steelers can’t throw the ball; they are more reliant on their clock killing running game. In this matchup the Packers have a distinct advantage. That is unless Sam Shields suddenly goes rookie gaga and gets mesmerized by the SUPER BOWL and the fact he’s in it. If that’s the case he could be forced to try and run down Wallace. In this matchup give the edge where it rightfully belongs.

(BIG) ADVANTAGE – PACKERS

STEELERS DEFENSIVE LINE (Casey Hampton, Brett Keisel, Ziggy Hood) vs.

PACKERS OFFENSIVE LINE (Chad Clifton, Darryn Colledge, Scott Wells, Josh Sitton, Bryan Bulaga)

Containing the Pittsburgh push AND having enough presence of mind to pick up the blitz coming from somewhere else is priority one for the Packers. Don’t believe the hype about Aaron Smith returning either. His torn triceps is still nowhere near ready and only desperation on the Steelers part gets him in. As it is the Steelers could cause all sorts of havoc on the Packers who have struggled at times with their assignments. One way to offset this is for James Starks to be able to explode quickly through the hole and gain 4 yards consistently, especially on first down. First down run yardage is ultra important and the Steelers will try to stuff Starks back to Buffalo. It will be up to Sitton to do some bullwork as Colledge is the weakest technician of run blockers for either team and also gets mowed over in passing downs. The Steelers have the strength. The question is will the Packers have the brains to offset this matchup?

ADVANTAGE – STEELERS

PACKERS DEFENSIVE LINE (CULLEN JENKINS, B.J. RAJI, RYAN PICKETT) vs.

STEELERS OFFENSIVE LINE (Jonathan Scott, Chris Kemeoatu, Doug Legursky, Ramon Foster, Flozell Adams)

The loss of Maurkice Pouncey to a broken bone in his foot/ leg/ ankle and high ankle sprain is something the Steelers did not need. Pouncey is cut from the same Mike Webster/ Dermonti Dawson mold of terrific Steeler centers and is a potentially enormous hole literally in the Steelers Line. The Steelers want to pound the rock and the job gets that much tougher without the big guy in the middle. Footwork and age may catch up to Foster and Adams, who has had a good year for Pittsburgh but is showing some wear on the tread of his tires at this point. Raji alone will occupy at least 2 and maybe all 3 interior linemen for Pittsburgh. If Raji can collapse the pocket as he has shown he can do Green Bay’s blitzes will look to harass Roethlisberger. It will take at least two to bring down the 270 lb QB. The Packers give up rushing yards but are a nightmare against the pass. This is a battle in the trenches worth watching closely. Although there is no appreciable advantage the mere fact that Pouncey is unavailable keeps this from being a Pittsburgh advantage.

ADVANTAGE  - NONE (due to Pouncey)

JAMES HARRISON vs. JAMES STARKS and AARON RODGERS

The meat of the big matchups. Harrison is big, fast, quick, strong, tough and mean. He doesn’t give a damn about the fines and doesn’t care of you know it. If he gets a shot at Rodgers, he’ll take it. If he can blast Starks he’s going to do it. Intimidation is Harrison’s calling card and it earns him attention. It will up to Starks to protect the ball and for Rodgers to simply keep doing what he has been doing – moving around, spread the ball, and get rid of it quickly without turning it over. If the Pack can get some long sustained drives that may help to wear down Harrison. And Green Bay will keep the reliable John Kuhn in with the blocking assignments in passing downs. Having faced Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs the Pack may have an answer for the Steelers monster man. Both Starks and Rodgers are quick enough to stay out of harms way. They’ll have to do it for three hours though.

ADVANTAGE – PACKERS

CLAY MATTHEWS III vs. RASHARD MENDENHALL and BEN ROETHLISBERGER

If the previous matchup was the meat then this is the potatoes of the big matchups. Matthews is free from the nagging shin injury that slowed him down in the latter part of the year and will draw much deserved attention. One thing not lost on Tomlin was how well the Packers used Matthews as a decoy to spring other blitzers. In the first round vs. Philly CM3 head faked RT Winston Justice, froze him, and dropped back into coverage while Desmond Bishop ran around Matthews and clobbered Michael Vick in the back early in the game. Justice was sent to the bench as he was lost and Dom Capers has a way of deploying all sorts of blitzes and Matthews has a knack for making the most of his opportunities. Still, getting to Roethlisberger is one thing – bringing him down is another. Matthews can’t do it alone. Big Ben’s big size and Mendenhall’s scampers may neutralize CM3’s effectiveness. If it does then someone else will have to step up large. But with the high octane motor Matthews has a spring in his step the Steelers haven’t yet seen.

ADVANTAGE - PACKERS

PACKERS WRS (Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Andrew Quarless) vs.

STEELERS CBS (Ike Taylor, Bryant McFadden, William Gay)

This is where it gets dicey for the black and gold. They need a pass rush. They need sacks. They need Troy Polamalu’s Achilles injury to be healed. This is the same Bryant McFadden who was torched last year in Green Bay’s OT loss in the desert shootout in Arizona (51-45) by Aaron Rodgers, who has had a chip on his shoulder. Rodgers is one of those players who plays so much better when he is being challenged. Gay has been targeted more times than John Gotti in his Teflon Don days. The Steelers have given up big chunks of yardage through the air and how, or more to the point who they have to cover will be a match up nightmare. If the Steelers cannot get to Rodgers and he is able to pick his spots he can dissect the Steeler secondary. That’s a tall order considering the pass rush sure to come Rodgers way. The fact is the Packers have 4 legit deep ball threats who can play over the middle, and Quarless has emerged of late and with Brandon Jackson and James Starks out of the backfield the options open up. Starks ability to advance on the ground only makes this match up worse for Pitt as GB can go to its arsenal of play action. The fact is when the Packer passing game is clicking, they have too much out there that can be effectively covered. SOMEONE is always open. If they go MIA or get the dropsies, their rubicon this year, it only helps the Steel City boys.

ADVANTAGE – PACKERS

NEXT EDITION – THE PICK