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| Packer DC Dom Capers |
Dom Capers is a pretty bright guy. Give him enough time and he’ll figure it out. He can take a team with a checkered past history of defense - like the Packers – and in less than two years turn them into a sack happy turnover producing nightmare for the other team. The thing with dom is you just don’t want to give him a second bite at the apple because he’ll gobble it up.
With all due respect to “The Man of LaMancha” the Packers Impossible Dream of a season is very much alive and well courtesy of Capers and his stifling greedy D being played in Green Bay. The curious thing about these playoffs is at every juncture a rematch, or potential rematch, awaits the Pack.
First came Philly, they with resurgent Michael Vick now at the helm. The Packers controlled the game wire to sire. While it was close the hallmark of a great team is the ability to win the close ones. The offense was far from perfect. A James Jones drop of a certain TD just before the half would have been some breathing room.
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| The Leader of the Pack, Aaron Rodgers |
Then just after the 2nd half started Aaron Rodgers coughed up a ball that saw Vick and Co. turn it into a TD in 2 plays. No worries; the Packer D is getting used to it. They just buckle up their helmets, hit the field, and go back to work. It gives the Packers hope and inspires the offense. After the Eagles closed the gap to 4 points Rodgers took the field and answered the bell with a drive of his own. How demoralizing it had to be for the Eagles to see their hopes rest on beating Capers’ defensive unit.
Ity was not to be. Capers had concocted some very exotic and well deployed blitz packages to keep the Birds on their heels all day, and in the end a Tramon Williams pick sealed the deal.
Give credit to the D and to Dom.
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| Atlanta HC Mike Smith |
Now it’s Atlanta, the top seeded team in the NFC at 14 – 2.
The Falcons under Mike Smith and QB Matt Ryan have put together an envious home record of 18 – 2 and are starting to build a Lambeau Mystique around their dome. The Falcons squeaked past the Packers 20 - 17on a last second field goal in their last encounter. That kick was set up by some very soft coverage by the Special Teams after Rodgers guided the Packers to a game tying score with just under a minute to play.
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| RB Michael "Burner" Turner |
Capers has already set the machinery in motion for this game. There are 4 big components to Atlanta’s offense – Ryan, RB Michael Turner, TE Tony Gonzalez and WR Roddy White. Turner is the set up man that makes the offense go. His low center of gravity and tree trunk thighs are reminiscent of Earl Campbell and his running style is very similar. He can lower his shoulder as well as turn the corner for his yards. The Packers are notorious for giving up yards on the ground.
In this game Capers will have to deal with containing Turner to keep him in check. The less Turner can hurt you the more pressure can be brought to bear on young Ryan who is now in his first real playoff test. History shows that the young, no matter how good they are, do not fare well traditionally early in playoff experience. Look no further than Green Bay in Arizona last year. B. J. Raji will be needed to occupy 2 linemen to allow A.J. Hawk and Erik Walden to key on Turner to slow him down. The more the Packers can force a second and long situation the more that plays into Green Bay’s strength.
Gonzalez is a first ballot hall of famer and rightfully so. Last time Gonzo had some grabs without too much difficulty and expect Capers to shadow him far more frequently on Saturday night. Matching Walden and/ or Charles Woodson up against Gonzo, especially in 2nd or 3rd and 5’s will be expected. Gonzalez is not the type to put up a lot of points, his specialty is making the catch in crunch time to keep a drive alive and has built his career around that. Containing him in key spots is crucial.
Capers is as good as anyone in the business at preparing his troops for he expects them to see on Sunday. Atlanta has their keys.
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| Falcon Young Gun QB Matt Ryan |
If Turner can get positive first down yardage then that opens up the offense for Roddy White, easily Ryan’s favorite target. Look for Tramon Williams to draw White and Sam Shields will pick up either Mike Jenkins or Harry Douglas. In their past game Douglas proved to be a reliable #2 receiver and gashed the Packers for key first downs. Williams is fast becoming not only a shutdown corner but a lock down corner, and GB will need him to keep White in jail.
He is more than capable of the task.
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| SN Defensive Player of the Year Clay Matthews III |
Last time Clay Matthews was not himself. He had picked up a shin injury somewhere along the way that had limited his mobility. Matthews without mobility is like Matthews without the hair. He showed no adverse signs against the Eagles and now will be flying high against these birds from the south. Look for the Pack to stack the box on first down and dare the Falcons to run. Nick Collins may drop down from the safety position to offer additional run support. Green Bay’s key will be forcing the second and long spots where they can turn their pass rushers loose. The deeper the playoffs go the smaller the window becomes for a QB to hit, even one as good as Ryan.
On offense it is paramount that the Packers play aggressively and mistake free. Atlanta’s weaknesses, if there are any, is their average defense. They don’t do anything flashy, they are more workmanlike in their approach and get the job done. The strength of the Falcon D is their offenses ability to put together long, clock killing drives that result in points. The best defense is a good offense applies here.
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| RB Ryan Grant |
Mike Smith will have his hands full especially if impressive rookie James Starks can get free early. Starks emergence is very reminiscent of Ryan Grant’s arrival in Green Bay. After languishing unplayed on the Giants practice squad Grant was picked up for a 6th rounder and gradually worked his way into the lineup until he, too, had his breakout and has been a fixture ever since until he was injured.
Starks has the parallel universe. The biggest thing Starks brings to the table is his explosiveness through the hole. He showed great vision and pop last week. He routinely turned what looked to be 2 or 3 yard stuffs into nice gains with some surprising strength. Mike McCarthy acknowledged that when he saw how well Starks was plating he rode his young runner.
This will repeat itself. There is no book yet on how to stop Starks. He simply hasn’t played enough for anyone to know. And if Atlanta stacks the box then that will open up the Aaron Rodgers aerial show. It will be up to the OLine to not only keep Rodgers jersey clean but to give some daylight to Starks so he can run his play in… the…… alley.
Atlanta’s defense is not considered fast but they are quick and can get to the ball. They are playing with enthusiasm and may show a bit too much pent up adrenaline after their layoff. Atlanta has no played a meaningful game in some time, perhaps not since the game against the Packers. Green Bay on the other hand has had a month of playoffs to prepare.
The Packers offense killed the clock and the Eagles hopes by keeping Michael Vick where he could not hurt them – on the bench. Look for the Packers to use the time of possession to their advantage again. Putting Ryan and his troops into forced situations may spell the difference between these two squads.
Earlier we had said that if the Packers and Falcons were to play 100 games we would expect the difference to be no more than 51 – 49. That’s how evenly matched these teams are.
Round one – Atlanta.
The rematch – (along with our other picks)
GREEN BAY 27
Atlanta 20
It's midnight Cinderella for the Seahawks. In their rematch unlike the Saints Da Bears can tackle. It will be entertaining though.
Seattle 20
This is a WWE Last Man Standing Death Cage match between two teams that really don't like each other. The Ravens are weak in the passing game. The Steelers are strong on defense and more well balanced offensively.
PITTSBURGH 19
Baltimore 13
Rex Ryan and Dominique Rogers Cromartie calling out Bill Belichick and Tom Brady is as smart as walking up to a sleeping pit bull, picking him up by the tail, whacking him in the nuts with a stick to see if he's really asleep and then hoping he's on a leash. Give the Jets credit for hubris. But a good mouth cannot overcome a noodle armed QB. This gets ugly. Don't expect handshakes afterwards either.
New York Motormouths 13
Good stuff once again. Now win TWO games for me while I'm away !!
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