STATE OF THE PACKERS –
OFFENSE
WHERE DID IT ALL GO
WRONG?
A Look Back with an Eye
on the Future
It all
seemed so innocuous and harmless at the time. Way back in August during what
Aaron Rodgers would later describe as a “…meaningless pre-season game…” Jordy
Nelson, the Green Bay Packers #1 WR and among the mix of the best receivers in
the NFL and Rodgers favorite target went up for a Rodgers throw that was
atypical of the NFL reigning MVP. Rodgers arm, accuracy and decision making
were on their way to becoming legendary. Rodgers does not throw INT’s. Rodgers
does not miss his targets. Rodgers does not get rattled under pressure. Most of
all Rodgers does not overthrow his receivers.
But on that
fateful day against Pittsburgh Rodgers did just that. His soft toss to Nelson
was a play the two have made hundreds of times before in Green Bay. In
practice, in games, in the playoffs… Rodgers tosses it up and Nelson somehow
contorts his 6’3” form to grab the ball and come down with both feet 3”
inbounds twisted as neatly as a Bavarian pretzel. But on that fateful day on
that fateful toss, in a portent of things to come Rodgers throw was high and
over Nelson’s head. Nelson went up for the ball – and missed. When he came back
to earth his knee gave way and crumpled as Nelson came crashing down to the
ground.
And with
that action in that moment so did the Green Bay Packers circa 2015 fortunes. As
kids we all played dominoes. For those that never quite got the hang of the
game it was more fun to stand them on end, form an intricate pattern and then
just give a little push to the first domino and sit back and watch what
happens. For Green Bay Nelson was that first domino. The result was far from a
child’s delight as it culminated in a mess when it was all said and done. Nelson
became this first domino of the 2015 – 16 season.
As Nelson
was seen walking off the field without a limp there was relief among the
Packers coaching staff, team, and fans. No one knew exactly how bad it was
because it certainly didn’t look that bad. It looked for all the world as if
Nelson would be back out in a week, two at the most running under Rodgers’
rainbows. No one knew it at the time but the Packers became much like the
Titanic. A massive vessel can take a hit and keep on cruising along unaware of
the damage below the fault line. It seems harmless at first but as time
progresses and as the ramifications of the damage are felt the ship will sink
long before the Captain orders the launch of the lifeboats.
It’s
difficult to label a 10 -6 season with a win in the playoffs and a heartbreaker
loss to Arizona as a failure. It would be far more accurate to call the 2015-16
season a disappointment based on the perceived talent entering the campaign.
The talent was there, the defense improved and all signs pointed to the Packers
being among the league’s elite. For 6 short weeks the Packers were right in the
mix of the best in the league, and that was being accomplished without Nelson.
Football has
been accurately described as the ultimate team game. Apart from a franchise QB
no one player should be so inherently valuable that losing him sinks a team’s
season. And without knowing it went Nelson went down, so did the season long
terms and goals of the Pack.
Replacing
Nelson’s position was easy. Replacing Nelson wasn’t. Back came FA James Jones
fresh from being cut by the New York Giants. Jones was a valuable addition early
on. His 8 TD’s put him among the league leaders. Green Bay cruised to an almost
too easy 6 – 0. But the ship was taking on water. The first evidence was against
a San Diego squad that closed out the year a dreadful 4 – 12. Yeah, Green Bay
eked out a 27 – 20 win but the Charger defense showed that the Packers could be
kept close. The Denver Broncos took notice and came into the game well prepared
to expand upon what the Chargers had started. The Broncos found the Packers lacked the speed
and size to stretch the field vertically. Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, and
James Jones do not possess blazing speed. Neither does Jared Abbrederis. The
last guy on the list, Jeff Janis, was an afterthought. Linebackers stayed
closer to the line. Corners played the Packer wideouts in straight up man
coverage while they crowded the line. The safeties dropped down lower. The
congestion of bodies left fewer lanes open. Without Nelson’s speed and size
teams rolled the dice they could hang with the Packers WR’s by jamming them in
man coverage – and they were correct. As more water poured in the ship began to
list and sink noticeably.
And therein
began the march towards a mediocre 4 – 6 finish.
Early on
Rodgers and Mike McCarthy were singing the praises of 2nd year man
Davante Adams. Tall and rangy and off a good rookie campaign that saw him get
more involved in the offense Adams had nothing but promise and potential in
front of him. So too did TE Richard Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers said of Richard
Rodgers “He has the best hands on the team”. So high on Adams were coach and QB
the only place he could go was down. And when Adams went down, he went down
hard.
McCarthy and
Rodgers as well as almost anyone logically expected Adams to step in and fill
Jordy Nelson’s shoes immediately. It is unfair to pin the Pack’s woes
completely on Adams. The loss of Nelson was far greater than anyone could have
thought at the time. The pressure on Adams to perform was so intense that
perhaps it was too much to expect a 2nd year player to bear. Without
Nelson one glaring weakness in what was once thought of as one of the NFL’s
elite receiving corps was exposed.
The Packers WR’s are just simply not fast. Oh,
they’re fast enough. But only Jeff Janis had the type of speed to scare a
defense and McCarthy kept him on the bench when the offense was on the field. But
in special teams situations Janis was rapidly earning comparisons to the
Buffalo Bills wunderkind from the Super Bowl years Steve Tasker. Janis was a more
than effective gunner and blew up enough punt returners to warrant double and triple
coverage. Janis also showed potential with 2 very long kick returns.
But somehow
Janis had not yet gotten himself played up to a point where McCarthy and Rodgers
could trust him on the field. It would equally be unfair to anoint Janis as a savior
and the answer to all the Packers receiving issues. It was Janis who kept Janis
on the bench while he better learned the route trees until injuries against
Arizona forced the Pack to put him out with Jones and Jared Abbrederis as they
were the only 3 WR’s left on the roster. Everyone else was out with injuries.
Gone. Even had the Packers somehow gotten past Arizona they likely would have
had to sign one or two practice squadders just to take the field. While Janis
had two beyond spectacular plays to end the game his route running earlier left
a lot to be desired. Janis has not yet mastered the art of tight, precise routes
the likes of which Rodgers expects. So often Rodgers is throwing the ball to an
area where his receiver is supposed to be. With Janis too often he wasn’t
there.
But what
Janis brings to the table cannot be ignored. All along many Packer faithful
were clamoring for Janis and Abby to get in there. It isn’t that easy. McCarthy
has not won 100 games by accident. And he certainly wasn’t going to rest his
fortunes on an unproven 2nd year guy from a tiny D II school with
only a handful of NFL plays under his belt. Instead McCarthy and Rodgers early
on tried to force Adams’ square peg into the #1 WR’s hole. It wasn’t a good
fit. In retrospect McCarthy may have pushed the envelope too far in getting
Adams involved offensively.
When the
Detroit Lions upended the Packers in their first meeting Rodgers targeted Adams
an incredible 21 times – 11 of which were drops. Adams repeated drops became
such a theme that it became a slump. McCarthy tried in vain to weather the storm
with Adams but Adams was clearly not up to the task. Randall Cobb’s lack of
size and blazing speed showed he is a great complementary slot receiver who,
like Abbrederis, works better out of the slot than wide out but he is not
anywhere near a true #1 WR. Jones lack of foot speed became evident as the
season ground on, making him an unlikely candidate to end up on the Pack’s 53
man roster next year. He was a good, solid fill in but disappeared down the
stretch when he couldn’t out run anyone. A WR taken in the draft will not nor
should it be a shock to anyone. One name to watch for is Pitt’s Junior WR Tyler
Boyd. Boyd has the size and speed and could be a later round steal. Without
injuries the Packers are deep at the WR spot. A healthy Nelson and a healthy Ty
Montgomery go a long way to curing one of the Pack’s biggest ails. Incoming
talent shouldn’t be a surprise. Montgomery was starting to show some flash when
he injured an ankle and never returned. Billed as a Randall Cobb type only
bigger was an accurate depiction of Montgomery. Having Nelson and Montgomery
back will be a huge infusion of talent next year.
Rodgers is
not exempt from his role. His numbers harken back to his early days with the
Pack. As options began to dwindle Rodgers started to do something he does not
ordinarily do. He began to force throws. He began to target individuals. His
throws were off target. He overshot his targets badly. He looked antsy in the
pocket and held the ball too long. The upshot is while Rodgers numbers were
decent for anyone else they were an embarrassment as the Packers were the #25
passing team in the NFL.
As the
dominoes started to tumble the rest of the offense was exposed in all its
flaws. The offensive line, once thought to be a deep and talented group, was
exposed as a thin squad that beyond J.C. Tretter had little depth when injuries
hit. At one point 4 of the 5 starters on the O line – David Bahktiari, Corey
Linsley, T.J. Lang and Bryan Bulaga were all out opening the way for Tretter,
Lane Taylor and Don Barclay. Only Tretter showed the type of talent necessary
for a winning football team. Barclay took two giant steps backwards and Taylor
will likely have played himself out. It is expected the Packers will draft at
least a T and Green Bay also signed practice squadder Mark Rotheram to a
futures contract s to trump someone else from signing him away. Rotheram is
enormous (6’5”/ 325 lbs) and a project but size, like speed, cannot be taught.
The corps is stout when healthy. Beyond Tretter the bench has glaring deficiencies.
There is
likely to be some shakeup in the backfield. McCarthy seldom, if ever, uses the
media as a bully pulpit. His conversations and criticisms of his players
usually stays behind closed doors, so it came as a bombshell when McCarthy
confirmed what many have suspected all along. Eddie Lacy is not in good enough
football shape to keep playing in his overweight state. Simply put McCarthy all
but called Lacey “fat”, and not in proper condition for pro football. McCarthy
came out bluntly and said "Eddie Lacy, he's got a lot of work to do. His
offseason last year was not good enough, and he never recovered from it. I had
a chance to talk to Eddie and that was pretty much the majority of our whole
conversation. ... So, he has to get it done because he cannot play at the
weight that he played at this year." Lacy’s weight and the effect of his
poor conditioning were on display in the playoff game against Arizona when his
61 yard gain looked like a man carrying a piano. Uphill.
For those
inclined to use today’s social media world take a gander and see how many of
Lacy’s Tweets are about food in some form. Lacy will need a much more
professional, disciplined approach to his diet in the offseason because he
looked slower than almost anyone would have expected. James Starks is in a
contract year and the big knock on Starks is ball security. Yes, Starks has
been a good Packer, and yes, he was there in the Super Bowl run and yes, he was
a good complement to Lacy’s bull rushes. But his propensity for fumbling is
something McCarthy won’t tolerate. Expect a RB to be taken in the middle rounds
of the draft this year. One burning question is will John Kuhn be back? At his
age (33) and the investment in Aaron Ripkowski as valuable as Kuhn is will the
Pack move on? Kuhn is at the one-year-at-a-time contract stage so that is an
area worth watching.
Tight End is
another position expected to be addressed in the draft or free agency. Andrew
Quarless was hurt most of the year and while Richard Rodgers had the
spectacular catch of Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary against Detroit his development
seems to have flattened out. Once McCarthy carried 5 TE’s on the roster.
Selecting another in the draft or going after Will Tye (NY Giants), Josh Hill
(NO Saints) or Daniel Fells (Arizona) makes sense without breaking the bank.
All are currently under $500k and if the price is right it could shore up a
sore spot as the Pack currently is without a seam splitter who can block. TE is
one area that could benefit from the infusion of veteran talent to coax along
Rodgers in his development. The draft prospects at TE are rather thin this year
and unless someone jumps off the page at the combine don’t expect a banner crop
this year.
McCarthy and
GM Ted Thompson may be forced to rethink some of their hard line positions.
While free agency is something the Pack typically eschews for the draft and
develop approach Rodgers is now at his prime. Maybe there is some consideration
to be made for some pickups. Offensive line would not be a bad place to
buttress with some known help. Vlad Ducasse (G/ Chicago) and Eric Winston (RT/
Cincinnati) are both experienced, in the 28 – 32 year old range and both are
under $1m in a cap hit. The Packers don’t need to go hog wild on a pricey Russell
Okung or Cordy Glenn but maybe the leaks that showed this year would be better
plugged with some proven talent and turned over more frequently a la New
England.
One
intriguing possibility is Detroit’s Calvin Johnson signing for a lower cap hit
with an incentive laden deal with a contender. A team such as the Packers could
benefit from Detroit’s expected fire sale. The Lions have committed $30m in cap
space to Megatron and QB Matt Stafford so a possible Julius Peppers-type deal
could sound intriguing and fill a hole. On the pricey side Travis Benjamin and
his rehabbed knee is available and Cleveland isn’t exactly a powerhouse. Before
going too crazy with free agency talk and fanning a fire that does not yet exist
it has to be mentioned for every roster spot filled by free agency someone else
has to go. A healthy WR group that includes a healthy Nelson and Montgomery and
a battle tested Janis makes next year’s Packers looking very deadly. The key is
Nelson who, at 30 and coming off a knee injury, must be close to his old form.
If not, the Pack could see a repeat of life without him. With the exception of
Janis speed is the missing component among the remainder of the Pack’s receiving
corps.
We all just
learned what happens when injury decimates a position and the lesson was
painful. The loss of Nelson has to have come as a stunner to the Packer brass
as to how much effect it would have. If Rodgers is to capture another Super
Bowl crown it’s something that can’t ever happen again and much like Lacy’s
waist line needs to be looked at in a much tougher light. McCarthy is rumored
to be ‘fed up’ with Thompson’s penurious ways. While it keeps the salary cap in
check McCarthy may lean on the boss to fill some holes with some proven talent
as opposed to untested projects.